Electric trucks were 50.3% of China’s heavy truck sales in September as diesel demand fell

Battery-electric tractors and dump trucks took 50.3% of China’s heavy truck sales in September, about 33,100 vehicles in a month when the overall heavy-truck market shrank. Electrek, which reported the figure, counts the segment at 12 tonnes and up. Diesel, long the default for freight, was left with less than half of the new-truck market.

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The milestone lands alongside a measurable drop in the fuel those trucks used to burn. Energy analysts at Kpler estimate that China’s diesel consumption will fall by roughly 230,000 barrels a day in 2026, even though road freight turnover grew about 3% in the first seven months of the year. Fewer diesel engines on the road is now showing up in refinery and import data, not only in registration statistics.

In its November 2 report on the September numbers, Electrek put electric trucks at about 33,100 units, up 37% from a year earlier, while the total heavy-truck market fell 21%. Tractor units, the long-haul workhorses, did better still, at a 64.5% electric share. For January through September the electric tally reached 226,400 trucks, up 64% and equal to a 38.1% share, against 231,100 for all of 2025.

The December 2025 peak and the subsidy hangover

September is not the first time electric heavy trucks crossed the halfway mark. In December 2025 the share hit 53.9%, a record that CnEVPost traced to CV World data and attributed to buyers rushing ahead of expiring trade-in subsidies and a new purchase tax on electrified vehicles. The pull-forward left a hole: Electrek reports the share fell to about 23% by March 2026 before climbing back.

The recovery has been steady. Kpler’s registration tracking shows electric penetration at about 41% in May, 45% in June and 47% in July, and CATL’s chief scientist said at a September 4 battery conference that new-energy heavy trucks could be half of China’s annual truck sales by 2028.

Counting the market two ways

Totals for the same month differ by source. A preliminary tally from CV World, relayed by SteelOrbis, put all heavy-truck sales at 95,000 in September, down 10% from a year earlier and up 10% from August, with 926,000 units for the first nine months. That count includes chassis and tractors, while the Electrek percentages apply to the narrower 12-tonne-and-up segment, and the two scopes explain why the declines are quoted at 10% and 21%.

Weak freight rates, thinner fleet profits and a high comparison base from last year’s China IV trade-in program all pushed the overall market down, according to SteelOrbis. In a shrinking market, a segment growing 37% gains share quickly, which is part of why the electric slice crossed 50% even without a surge in absolute demand. Electrek also cites analysis from the International Council on Clean Transportation and CATARC finding that battery-electric trucks were about 19% cheaper per tonne-kilometer than diesel in good operating conditions, an edge that disappears at low mileage or with heavy battery packs. CATL says its customers save about 0.6 yuan per kilometer.

Diesel and LNG both lose ground

Electrification is not the only thing eroding diesel. Kpler analyst Elif Binici wrote that China is moving more freight while consuming less diesel, and the firm’s September analysis of road-fuel displacement attributes about 680,000 barrels a day of displaced diesel to alternative trucks in 2026: roughly 230,000 from electric models and the rest from liquefied natural gas. In March, LNG held 37% of domestic heavy-duty registrations to electric’s 23%. By July electric had 47% and LNG had fallen to 11% as the discount of LNG over diesel narrowed.

Diesel demand was already sliding. Kpler counts a decline of about 420,000 barrels a day in May and 460,000 in June, and expects September and October to run about 280,000 barrels a day below last year. The firm sees only a modest rebound of about 64,000 barrels a day in 2027.

Earlier warnings from the oil side

The turn was flagged before the trucks arrived in volume. Rhodium Group’s Rogan Quinn showed in a 2025 analysis of electric trucks and Chinese oil demand that diesel refinery runs peaked in April 2023 and that apparent diesel consumption slid from about 4.7 million barrels a day to about 4.0 million by April 2025. The report credited slower real-estate construction, LNG trucking and electrification, and said electrification explained the fall that continued after construction stabilized.

Wu Kai, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and CATL’s chief scientist, told the World Power Battery Conference that the market is on track to electrify faster than previously expected, citing trade-in subsidies, battery progress and high fossil-fuel prices, according to Caixin. Beijing’s own goal is 40% new-energy heavy-truck sales by 2030. September’s 50.3% is already above that line, though Kpler expects electric trucks to reach only about 38% of 2026 sales and 8% of the operating fleet by year-end.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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