American developers ordered 2.8 gigawatts of wind turbines in the second quarter of 2026, the most in any quarter since the final three months of 2023. The surge came from a deadline. Projects that wanted to keep federal tax credits had to show construction had begun before July 4, and buyers placed turbine orders to get there.
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Wood Mackenzie published the figure on October 26 in its U.S. Wind Energy Monitor for the third quarter. Utility Dive reported it the same week, and Windtech International carried the story on October 27.
What the 2.8 gigawatts measures
The number counts firm turbine orders, meaning contracts a manufacturer has booked, rather than turbines spinning. According to Wood Mackenzie’s announcement, order intake reached a three-year high as developers raced to meet the start-of-construction date. Utility Dive’s write-up ties the rush to the July 4, 2026 cutoff, and Windtech International’s account repeats the three-year-high framing. None of the three gives a year-earlier comparison for the quarter, so the benchmark is the 2023 peak rather than a percentage change. The last quarter that matched or beat 2.8 gigawatts was the fourth quarter of 2023.
Orders and installations moved in different directions at once. About 5 gigawatts of onshore wind came online in the quarter, and most of it was a single project: the 3.65-gigawatt SunZia wind farm in New Mexico, the largest wind project built in the country so far.
The tax rule that set the clock
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in 2025, pulled forward the dates by which wind and solar projects must start construction to keep the 45Y production credit and the 48E investment credit. Projects that missed the summer 2026 start must be placed in service by December 31, 2027. Those that qualified have until December 31, 2030. The Treasury and IRS guidance, summarized by the law firm Orrick, ended the 5% cost shortcut for most wind and solar projects and requires physical work of a significant nature before July 5, 2026, though off-site work under a binding contract can count. A turbine order under such a contract is one way to show it.
The tax deadline is why the order book spiked ahead of a calendar date rather than in response to power demand. Two clocks now divide the pipeline. Projects that began physical work before July 5, 2026 have until the end of 2030 to start producing power, a runway of more than four years. Projects that missed it must be in service by the end of 2027, which was about 14 months away when Wood Mackenzie reported. The IRS notice also keeps a continuity safe harbor: a facility placed in service within four calendar years of the year construction began is treated as having kept building continuously.
The rules trace to Notice 2025-42, which the IRS issued on August 15, 2025 after a July 2025 executive order, and which Jones Day’s summary says eliminated the 5% cost safe harbor for most wind and solar projects starting September 2, 2025. Under the statute, facilities placed in service after 2027 lose the credits unless construction began by July 4, 2026, which is the date that set the pace for turbine buyers through the spring and early summer.
Onshore outlook, offshore doubts
Wood Mackenzie analyst Tyler Gifford said policy is the variable with the greatest impact on wind installations, and that the remaining focus is on construction execution before the tax credit window closes. Developers are prioritizing projects that can operate by 2030, which keeps the five-year onshore outlook steady, with tax credits still encouraging fleet renewal and decommissioning opening more opportunities through 2030, at 39 gigawatts of new capacity. More than half of the 2026 to 2028 pipeline is already running or under construction, a cushion against near-term policy shocks. Texas is projected to lead with nearly a quarter of additions, and Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming are forecast as the next largest markets.
Two numbers moved the wrong way. The repowering forecast, which covers upgrades to existing wind farms, fell by 1 gigawatt from the prior quarter because repower orders came in below expectations. And the offshore outlook stayed at 5 gigawatts, all expected online by the fourth quarter of 2027, with federal lease buyouts approaching $4 billion. Without stable long-term policy, Wood Mackenzie expects offshore developers and financiers to step back from new U.S. projects beyond 2027.
The policy pressure on offshore wind has several parts, according to Utility Dive’s summary of the report: an executive order pausing new lease sales in federal waters, agreements to buy back leases that were already auctioned, and court efforts to block offshore farms that are already under construction. Wood Mackenzie expects only 5 gigawatts of offshore wind to be delivered within two years.
A further cost is coming from engineering rules: the ASCE 7-28 standard, scheduled for publication on December 31, 2027, would require turbines in tornado-prone areas to meet new design requirements, raising project costs where tornado wind speeds and turbine exposure pass set thresholds.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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