One 10.4-gigawatt Ohio data center helped push AEP’s contracted big loads up 22%, to 84 GW

American Electric Power told investors on October 29, 2026 that the customer load it has under contract through 2031 has grown by 22 percent in a single quarter, to 84 GW from 69 GW. A single data center campus in Ohio, planned at 10.4 gigawatts, accounted for most of the jump. For a utility that serves about 5.6 million customers in 11 states, the figure reframes what the next five years of construction will look like.

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The same earnings update raised AEP’s five-year capital plan by 30 percent, to $100 billion from $78 billion. Gas-fired generation and transmission take the largest additions, and the company’s chief financial officer said the demand now on the books is outrunning the existing fleet.

The 10.4-GW campus at Piketon

Utility Dive’s report on the earnings call says the increase was mainly driven by a 10.4-GW data center campus in Ohio being developed by SB Energy. AEP’s own third-quarter presentation attributes 11 GW of the move from 69 GW to 84 GW to Ohio Power electric service agreements, including the Piketon site, and puts Ohio Power’s share of the total at 23 GW. The presentation describes the contracted load as firm, take-or-pay agreements rather than informal interest. About 35 GW of the total is incremental firm load under those agreements, and roughly 15 GW of the agreements were signed since the second-quarter call.

Serving the campus requires new high-voltage lines. Three 765-kV transmission lines would each carry about 3.2 GW, with targeted in-service dates of December 31 in 2028, 2029 and 2030. The project is estimated at roughly $5 billion and AEP expects to begin building in early 2027. The first 800 MW of load can be served with existing transmission capacity and needs no additional regulatory approvals.

Who pays is the question ratepayers care about. According to Utility Dive, SoftBank and its affiliates will fund the transmission project, which carries an 11.35 percent base return on equity that could rise to 11.99 percent or fall to 10.71 percent depending on final costs and in-service dates. Approval is still needed from PJM Interconnection, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

A $100 billion plan built around new generation

Trevor Mihalik, AEP’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said on the call that contracted demand is outpacing the existing fleet, creating what he called a clear durable need for new baseload dispatchable generation. The plan puts $20 billion into gas-fired generation through 2031, up from $13 billion, and $37 billion into transmission, up from $33 billion. Utilities in the group expect to spend $8 billion on renewables over the five years. About 9 GW of gas-fired generation is planned through 2032.

Generation orders are already moving. AEP has described a deal for up to 1.6 GW of linear generators in a Mainspring agreement reported in mid-October, and earlier this year it secured turbines in an order covering 13 GW of gas turbines. William Fehrman, AEP’s chairman, president and chief executive, said construction is well underway on the Wyoming fuel cell project, a $4 billion, 702 MW development using Bloom Energy fuel cells and backed by a 20-year power purchase agreement with Google, described on AEP project page.

Fehrman also said AEP is weighing separate generating companies to serve large loads, especially in West Virginia and Indiana, and could house some future gas plants in that structure. Active generation requests from AEP’s utilities total 14.4 GW.

AEP’s third-quarter numbers for existing customers

The data center boom is already visible in sales. AEP reported net income of $1.2 billion on $6.8 billion of revenue, against $972 million and $6 billion a year earlier, and retail electric sales rose 11 percent in the quarter and 8.7 percent over nine months, mainly from data center development. The figures come from the company’s quarterly filing with the SEC as summarized by Utility Dive.

Earnings guidance tracks the buildout. Operating earnings per share were $2.23 for the third quarter and $5.24 year to date, with 2026 guidance of $6.25 to $6.55 and results expected at or above the high end. Guidance for 2027 is $6.75 to $7.05 and for 2028 is $7.40 to $7.70, and the presentation projects annual operating earnings growth of 9 to 11 percent. By its allocation, 37 percent of the five-year plan goes to transmission, 36 percent to generation, 22 percent to distribution and 5 percent to corporate and other. Regulated rate base is expected to reach $162 billion by 2031, and the $22 billion of incremental capital is about 24 percent equity funded, with a target of 14 to 15 percent funds from operations to debt.

AEP says rate base should compound at 13 percent a year over the five years, up from 11 percent, and that up to $21 billion of fixed cost offsets could flow to residential customers, up from $16 billion. Whether the 84 GW is ever fully built is the open question, since a take-or-pay contract protects the utility only as long as the customer and the lines both arrive.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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