U.S. refineries ran above 95% of capacity from May through September, the highest for those months since 1998

U.S. refineries ran at more than 95% of their capacity on average from May through September 2026, the highest rate for those five months since 1998. The finding comes from an in-brief analysis the Energy Information Administration published on Oct. 22, and it describes an industry that spent the entire driving season operating close to its physical limit.

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A utilization rate that high leaves little slack. Every barrel of crude a plant can process is already being processed, so any unplanned outage, hurricane or equipment failure has fewer spare units elsewhere to absorb it. The agency’s explanation for the pace is less about American gasoline demand than about what the rest of the world wanted to buy. Refiners were working the diesel and heating-oil side of the barrel hardest, because that is where overseas buyers were paying the most for U.S.-made product.

What 95% utilization means against the long-run average

Refinery utilization compares the crude a plant actually runs with what its equipment could handle, and EIA defines the measure in its glossary entry on refinery capacity utilization. The agency tracks it weekly through the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which is where the summer’s readings were first visible to traders.

The comparison that gives the number its weight is the long-run average. According to the EIA analysis, titled “U.S. refineries have been running at very high rates in 2026,” utilization since 1991 has averaged 92% from May to September and 88% across the other seven months of the year. This summer’s average of more than 95% therefore sat roughly three points above a typical summer, which is already the busy season, and the best showing for those months in 28 years.

The agency notes one important caveat. Total refinery output, measured in barrels of product, was the highest since 2019 rather than since 1998. The reason is that U.S. refining capacity has fallen 4% since 2019, so a given utilization rate now applies to a smaller base of equipment. Running hard on fewer plants is not the same as running a larger industry, and the 4% capacity decline explains why a record-class utilization rate did not translate into record output. Anyone comparing this summer with the late 1990s should keep that distinction in mind, because the plants then were different in number, size and configuration.

Distillate margins and export demand pulled the runs higher

EIA attributes the high run rates largely to strong international demand for U.S. distillate fuel oil, the category that includes diesel and heating oil. Tight global supplies of refined products lifted refining margins, especially for diesel, and those margins gave plant operators a financial reason to keep units running rather than schedule downtime. The agency’s earlier coverage of product prices and refining margins and of diesel lays out how that profitability developed during the year.

The pattern matters because exports, not domestic pump demand, set the tone. When foreign buyers are bidding for cargoes of diesel, a Gulf Coast refiner can sell every barrel it makes at a strong price, which pushes utilization toward the ceiling. The same logic works in reverse in a weak-margin year, when plants trim runs and stretch out maintenance. This year the economics all pointed the same direction for five consecutive months, and the plants responded by staying online through stretches when operators might otherwise have scheduled turnaround work. That trade-off, more output now in exchange for deferred upkeep, is one reason the autumn maintenance calendar deserves attention.

Inventories, autumn maintenance and the heating season

High summer utilization has a predictable downstream effect. According to EIA, it usually raises distillate inventories before refiners begin seasonal maintenance and before distillate demand climbs in fall and winter, when trucking, farming and home heating all draw on the same family of fuels. EIA’s explainer on distillate demand seasonality describes why that build-before-the-peak rhythm matters for supply security.

Through the first three weeks of October, the agency found, utilization had eased from its summer highs but remained above the 2021 to 2025 five-year seasonal average. That is a sign the autumn maintenance season has started without dragging output down to normal levels. The plants are still working harder than they usually do at this point on the calendar, which supports the stock build that winter fuel buyers are counting on.

Jimmy Troderman was the principal contributor to the EIA piece, which quotes no outside executives or analysts, so the claim rests on the agency’s own weekly survey data rather than on company commentary. For readers tracking fuel prices, the practical reading is narrow but useful. A system that has already run flat out for five months has banked product ahead of the cold weather, yet it also has less room to cope with a surprise outage in the weeks that remain before maintenance and winter demand overlap.

What the weekly numbers will show next

The next test arrives in the weekly reports. If utilization keeps tracking above the five-year range while maintenance ramps up, it would suggest margins remain attractive enough to postpone work. If it drops sharply, the distillate build that the summer produced would be the cushion. Whichever way it moves, the 1998 comparison is a statement about the past five months rather than a forecast, and the agency presents it as exactly that.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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