AccuWeather expects Denver to see 10 to 18 days of 2-inch snow this winter as El Niño builds

Denver, which averages about nine days a year with at least 2 inches of snow, is forecast to get 10 to 18 such days this winter, according to AccuWeather’s 2026-27 outlook. The forecast arrives as a strengthening El Niño reshuffles where the snow is expected, favoring Denver and Salt Lake City while leaving several large Eastern cities with about half their usual winter snowfall or less.

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The Denver range and the El Niño odds were laid out in an Oct. 16 report that drew on the Associated Press, and the forecast stays a seasonal outlook, not a count of snowstorms. A range of 10 to 18 days sits just above the normal figure at its low end and runs to double it at the top, so the forecast leaves wide room between a mildly active winter and a busy one.

What the 10-to-18-day range means for Denver

The figure comes from AccuWeather’s winter forecast as relayed by Autoblog on Oct. 16, which cites the Associated Press. For Denver, the forecast is 10 to 18 days with at least 2 inches of snow, set against a historical average of nine. The unit is days, not inches, so it measures how often a meaningful accumulation happens, not how much falls in total over the season. Measured against the average of nine, the forecast range works out to between one and nine more such days than usual, and the lower end of the range is only a single day above normal. The upper end is the part of the forecast that draws attention: a Denver winter in which snowy days double.

Autoblog describes Salt Lake City as the only big metropolitan area that AccuWeather expects to see above-normal snow, though Denver’s own forecast also sits above its average by day count. At the other end, Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia are each forecast to see about half or less of their usual winter snow. The contrast follows where the jet stream is expected to sit.

The El Niño odds behind the forecast

The outlook rests on a Pacific signal that forecasters describe as unusually strong. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, said in its ENSO diagnostic discussion of Oct. 8 that “Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events,” putting the chance at 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January.

The 83% figure for October through December is the one cited in the winter coverage, where it is described as the chance of an El Niño stronger than any since 1950. Autoblog notes it rose from 69% in the September assessment, and that temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific climbed from more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal to more than 4 degrees above. The same reporting says NOAA expects a strong to very strong event to persist through March, which would carry the El Niño across most of the winter.

Autoblog’s earlier piece on which states face heavy snow as El Niño strengthens covered the September stage of the same story, and the October update repeats the pattern with firmer odds. NOAA’s own outlook update is dated Oct. 15, and the next outlook maps are due on Nov. 19, which is the next scheduled chance for the signal to change.

Forecasters on the jet stream and the risk of one big storm

Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said in coverage of the outlook that the El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream. He also cautioned that a milder northern tier does not mean snow disappears, saying “It doesn’t erase the risk,” so storms in northern areas remain possible even when the average leans warm.

Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range forecaster, flagged late January and February as the period to watch for the East. In his words, “it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities.” That caveat applies to the low Eastern snow totals in the forecast. A season at half of normal can still hold a single large event, and Pastelok’s warning is aimed squarely at cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia, each of which is forecast to see about half its usual snow or less.

Jon Gottschalck, a branch chief at the Climate Prediction Center, told CNN that some southern storms may turn northeast along the coast, adding “These storms could be very strong.” James Belanger, a vice president of meteorology at the Weather Company, pointed to the southern Rockies for a white Christmas. The AP’s version of the story is available on U.S. News.

For precipitation more broadly, Autoblog reports 40 to 50% odds of above-normal precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico and in Oklahoma and northern Texas, mostly 33 to 40% in Colorado and southern Utah, and a 70 to 80% wet signal for southern Georgia and northern Florida. The percentages are odds of wetter-than-normal conditions in the NOAA outlook coverage, not AccuWeather’s snow-day count, and they describe precipitation in general, not snow.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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