The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that households heating mainly with natural gas will spend about 9% less on energy this winter than last, and propane households about 3% less. Those two fuels heat about half of American homes, which makes this the favorable half of a mixed forecast that covers November 2026 through March 2027.
Save more, waste less: The Cool Down’s newsletter sends smart, simple changes that help you and the planet in your everyday life.
We may earn a commission if you sign up.
The percentages in the Winter Fuels Outlook
The figures come from the 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook, which the agency released on October 6 alongside its October Short-Term Energy Outlook. In the outlook itself, the national average natural gas household is projected to spend $640 over the heating season, down 9%, because the residential natural gas price is forecast at $13.44 per thousand cubic feet, also down 9%. Natural gas is the main heating fuel in about 46% of homes, based on 2024 data.
Propane households come out smaller on the percentage but larger in dollars: an average of $1,246, down 3%, with the price falling 2% to $2.52 per gallon. The Northeast is the standout for propane, where the projected decline is 15%. EIA’s own Today in Energy summary states the conclusion plainly: lower prices for those fuels are expected to reduce their expenditures.
The other half of the country faces the opposite. Households using electricity, more than 40% of homes, are projected to spend $1,196 on average, up 4%, on a price of 18.23 cents per kilowatt-hour that is up 3% and consumption of 6,562 kilowatt-hours that is up 1%. The West sees the largest electricity increase, 9%, because the forecast has it colder.
Heating oil, the outlier, and the regional split
Heating oil is the sharpest increase in the outlook. About 3% of homes, mostly in the Northeast, burn it, and their average expenditure is projected at $2,115, up 21%, on a price of $5.26 per gallon that is up 34%. Consumption is projected to fall 9%, and the Northeast is expected to be 12% warmer than last winter, which cushions part of the price jump. Because electricity heats more than 40% of homes, its 4% rise reaches far more households than the heating oil jump, even though the oil percentage is much bigger.
EIA ties the price to global distillate supply. An EIA explainer on diesel prices published September 18 said global distillate supplies are tight because of reduced refining activity in Russia, China and the Middle East, and that U.S. distillate inventories stood 13% below the five-year seasonal average in mid-September. The outlook adds higher global crude prices to the list of pressures behind heating oil.
The natural gas decline is not uniform either. By region, the outlook shows natural gas household spending down 14% in the Northeast, 10% in the Midwest and 15% in the South, but up 7% in the West, where heating degree days are forecast to run 25% above last winter. Nationally, the outlook assumes heating degree days flat from last winter, so the average rests on a mild Northeast offsetting a cold West.
Why storage and weather decide whether the forecast holds
On the supply side, EIA’s October 6 press release says natural gas inventories enter winter about 2% above the previous five-year average. Administrator Tristan Abbey said that relatively high inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand. The release also forecasts the Henry Hub benchmark price at $3.16 per million British thermal units in 2027, down 9% from 2026, the commodity price that feeds through to the residential rate.
Weather is the largest uncertainty, and EIA says so. The outlook notes that a strong El Niño pattern flagged by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could push temperatures well away from the base case, and it includes side cases in which every region runs 10% colder or 10% warmer. A colder winter than the base case would raise gas and propane bills even if prices hold, and the Northeast’s 12% warmer assumption and the West’s 25% colder one are the two weather inputs most likely to move the averages.
What an average cannot promise any household
These are projected national averages, not guarantees for any household. The outlook describes its numbers as broad averages, and actual bills depend on home size, insulation, equipment efficiency and local weather. Figures are nominal, not adjusted for inflation, and EIA assumes inflation of about 2%.
The projections also do not reflect fuel bought ahead of the season or locked in under fixed-price contracts, which matters for any household that bought fuel in advance. EIA cautions that spending across fuels is not directly comparable because the households and regions differ, and that switching fuels would not necessarily lower a household’s costs. The agency publishes the full series in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, which updates monthly, with the next edition due November 10.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
Save more, waste less: Subscribe to The Cool Down →
We may earn a commission if you sign up.
More from Morning Overview
- The FBI told the rest of ShinyHunters to surrender after a 24-year-old was arrested
- Two passengers died at an Ohio toll plaza, and the NTSB now wants the cash lanes shut
- Long use of a common prostate pill is tied to a higher chance of glaucoma
- Ford is recalling 223,472 F-150 pickups because the fuel tank can leak or detach
