American refiners are squeezing less gasoline out of each barrel of crude in 2026 than at any point in the last five years. The Energy Information Administration reported on Nov. 5 that U.S. refinery gasoline yield averaged below 45% of crude processed from January through August, well under the 45% to 50% range that is typical.
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The reason is money. Diesel and jet fuel have been far more profitable to make than gasoline, and refiners that can adjust their units have moved output toward the fuels that pay the most.
The finding comes from an EIA Today in Energy analysis by Kevin Hack and Michelle Bowman, built on data through August from the agency’s Petroleum Supply Monthly. The analysts found that gasoline yields were below the five-year low, set against 2021 through 2025, in every month of 2026. That is a notable result because the shift happened while gasoline prices were high, a period in which refiners might be expected to chase gasoline volumes.
Gasoline yield and the 45% line
Refinery yield is the share of a product in the total output from the crude a plant processes, and the EIA glossary entry on refinery yield defines it in those terms. Gasoline, distillate fuel oil and jet fuel together typically make up 85% to 90% of U.S. refinery product output, so a few points of gasoline yield move a large amount of fuel.
A drop below 45% means that for every 100 barrels of crude processed, fewer than 45 barrels come out as gasoline. The EIA does not print a numeric five-year range in the article, but it is clear that every monthly reading in 2026 landed beneath the lowest monthly value of the previous five years.
Diesel and jet fuel take the larger slice
Distillate yields, which include diesel, ran above the 2025 level and above the five-year average in every month of 2026. Jet fuel went further. The fleetwide average jet yield first exceeded 12% in March 2026 and stayed at or above that level through August, according to the EIA’s monthly jet fuel yield series. Jet yields were already at a five-year high for most of 2025, so the 2026 move extends a climb that began last year.
Refiners do not have unlimited room to change the mix, and the EIA’s explainer on the refining process describes why: crude oil is separated and converted in a sequence of units, each tuned to particular products. Hydrocracking and distillation settings allow some flexibility, and the slate of crude oils a plant buys affects what it can make, but the equipment is fixed in the short run. The shift visible in the data reflects choices at the margin: running units harder for distillate and jet, and giving up some gasoline-making capability to do it.
Margins that pulled the barrel toward distillate
The EIA ties the change to profitability. Distillate crack spreads and refinery margins were elevated for most of 2026 because of limited global supplies, and the agency calls distillate margins significantly higher than gasoline margins. A separate EIA piece on third-quarter refinery margins adds detail. U.S. refineries ran at 95% utilization on average in the quarter, the most crude for a third quarter since 2019, and the distillate and jet fuel crack spreads almost tripled from a year earlier.
That article attributes the tight global supply to disrupted refining in Russia, China and the Middle East, along with strong U.S. exports and higher import costs for the East Coast. As of the week ending Sept. 25, distillate stocks were 13% below the 2021-2025 average and gasoline stocks 7% below, while jet fuel inventories were 3% above.
Gasoline crack spreads more than doubled their year-ago level, though they fell in the second half of the quarter, so the squeeze was not confined to diesel and jet. Distillate simply paid the most, with the highest crack spread of the three and jet fuel second. Crack spreads in the EIA’s work are New York Harbor spot prices for gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel and jet fuel minus the Dated Brent spot price, using Bloomberg data.
Inventories offer a second angle. Gasoline stocks sitting 7% below average while refiners make proportionally less of it is a combination that can keep pressure on pump prices, and the EIA’s separate pieces on high gasoline prices and constrained global supplies are linked from its yield analysis for readers who want the full chain of reasoning. For drivers, the yield shift does not set pump prices directly, since crude costs, taxes and regional supply dominate. It does mean that less of the gasoline that could be made is being made at a time of high prices. The unresolved question is how long the distillate premium lasts. If global supplies of diesel and jet fuel recover, the EIA’s own margin logic implies the yield could drift back toward its usual 45% to 50% range, a reversal the agency’s data through August does not yet show.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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