The American Gas Association projects that electricity will cost 4.2 times as much as natural gas this winter, measured per unit of delivered energy. The figure comes from the trade group’s own 2026-27 Winter Heating Outlook, so it carries the perspective of the industry that sells the cheaper fuel. The same outlook expects gas to be abundant, with 3,969 billion cubic feet in storage heading into the season.
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A ratio of 4.2 sounds like a household bill that is more than four times larger. The association’s own bill estimates show a much smaller gap.
What the 4.2 compares
Slide 29 of the AGA Winter Heating Outlook for 2026-27 is headed with the statement that electricity prices are projected to be 4.2x more than natural gas this winter. The slide shows four percentage changes since last winter but does not label which applies to which fuel, and it does not say whether the comparison is per unit of energy or per household. AGA’s September 17 news release settles that question: on an energy-equivalent basis, the association expects electricity to cost 4.2 times more than natural gas, with electricity costs rising 2.6 percent from last winter.
Richard Meyer, AGA’s vice president of energy markets, analysis and standards, said in the association’s winter outlook release that the winter story for natural gas consumers is about lower prices and reliable service.
Converting both fuels to millions of British thermal units
AGA publishes the same kind of ratio year-round. In a separate item, AGA’s analysis of federal price projections, the association converts both fuels to a common unit, millions of British thermal units, and divides electricity’s price by gas’s. For 2024 it used $14.00 per MMBtu for gas and $48.30 for electricity, a ratio of 3.5. For 2027 it used $13.68 and $54.07, a ratio of 4.0. The 4.2 for this winter fits that widening trend. The analysis names Brendan O’Brien of AGA as its contact, and the Northeast ratio is projected higher still, at 4.5 in 2027.
Because the unit is delivered energy, the ratio ignores how well a furnace or heat pump turns that energy into warmth. A modern heat pump moves more heat than the electricity it consumes, which narrows the gap that a pure price comparison implies. AGA’s outlook text does not break out heat pumps, so the size of that adjustment is not something the source supplies.
What households are projected to pay
The household figures are far closer together. AGA estimates average November-to-March space-heating costs of $497 with natural gas and $794 with electricity, adjusted for climate and heating conditions, a gap of roughly 1.6 to 1. Households heating with gas are projected to spend 14 percent less than last winter. AGA labels these as estimates; actual bills vary with weather, location, the home and local rates.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration offers a second view in its winter fuels outlook of October 6, 2026. For the average household whose main heating fuel is the one listed, EIA projects $640 for natural gas, down 9 percent, and $1,196 for electricity, up 4 percent. Those averages describe different homes, with different climates and sizes, so they are not a like-for-like comparison of the same house heated two ways. EIA also projects heating oil households will spend 21 percent more at $2,115, the biggest increase of any fuel it lists.
Supply behind the gas advantage, and who is exposed
AGA ties the gas price advantage to supply. It cites the EIA September 2026 outlook for end-of-October storage of 3,969 billion cubic feet, the highest pre-winter level since 2016 and 5 percent above the five-year average, and for 2026 dry gas production of 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, a new annual record. It expects Henry Hub prices to stay below $3 until November and the storage surplus to last into March.
The outlook also names risks. An El Niño winter could bring colder weather to the West, and demand pressure is expected from the ramp-up of liquefied natural gas exports, higher winter power-sector demand and storage drawdowns. European and Asian prices remain elevated because of LNG supply disruptions, while U.S. pricing is relatively unaffected. The government’s picture is a bit less rosy on supply: in the EIA release on its winter fuels outlook, the agency says inventories should enter winter 2 percent above the five-year average and forecasts Henry Hub at $3.48 per MMBtu for 2026. EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said relatively high inventories provide a cushion for heating demand, while heating oil households face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight. The two agencies are describing the same cushion with different measuring sticks and dates, and readers comparing them should keep the sources apart.
The cost burden falls unevenly. AGA cites the 2024 Residential Energy Consumption Survey for the finding that 33 percent of all households reported at least one energy insecurity condition, 26 percent of owner-occupied households and 48 percent of renter-occupied households. Those figures cover all fuels across the full year, not gas-heated homes in winter alone.
What remains unsettled is the cold itself. Every figure above is a projection, and a Lower 48 demand spike like the one during Winter Storm Fern, when seven-day average demand topped 167 billion cubic feet per day, would test the storage cushion that holds the gas side of the ratio down.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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