A low-pressure area forecast to form several hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas could become Subtropical Storm Kyle later this week, The Weather Channel reported on November 2. Kyle is the next name on the 2026 Atlantic list after Subtropical Storm Josephine, which formed briefly off the East Coast on October 21 and 22. The system is expected to drift east or northeast into the open Atlantic and poses no threat to the U.S.
Help yourself and the planet: The Cool Down makes it easy to help yourself while helping the planet, with smart, simple changes to save more and waste less in your everyday life.
We may earn a commission if you sign up.
The odds are modest and the window is short. The National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. outlook on Monday saw no formation within seven days, and a later update raised the chance to 30%. If thunderstorms fail to organize near the center this week, less favorable conditions are expected to shut off the chance of a name by the weekend.
From an outlook showing nothing to a 30% chance
The Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1 a.m. EST on Monday, November 2, was signed by forecaster Gibbs and said tropical cyclone formation was not expected during the next seven days. It listed no areas of interest and gave no percentages. The Weather Channel article, bylined by Miriam Guthrie and Rob Shackelford and published at 9:30 a.m. EST, described the low as something that could develop on a weakening front, so the forecast changed within hours of the early outlook.
By Monday afternoon, CBS12 in West Palm Beach reported that the hurricane center gave the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical system within seven days. The station said the low was expected to form along a weakening front and stay northeast of the Bahamas, with development ending by the weekend as the system moves east or northeast into less favorable conditions. A syndicated Yahoo weather report repeated that a broad low could form on a weakening frontal boundary well off the East Coast.
The range of outcomes is wide. A low forming on a front that is already weakening can organize for a day or two and then lose its thunderstorms, or it can fall apart before it ever qualifies. The hurricane center’s outlook format reflects that, with separate chances for the next 48 hours and the next seven days, and Monday’s early outlook left both columns empty for the Atlantic.
Subtropical rules for a frontal low
A subtropical storm is a hybrid. It keeps some of the cold-core, frontal character of a mid-latitude low while building the thunderstorm activity of a tropical system, and its wind field is usually broader and weaker near the center than a hurricane’s. The Weather Channel said this low needs enough thunderstorms near its center to make that transition and earn the name.
Naming works the same way for both kinds of system. The hurricane center draws subtropical storms from the same alphabetical list as tropical ones, which is why Josephine was followed in the queue by Kyle rather than by a separate series, and a named subtropical storm can carry tropical-storm-force winds even when its rain and wind spread far from the center. For a system expected to stay at sea, the name mostly matters to mariners and to anyone watching the surf forecast.
The naming list shows how busy the year has been. The hurricane center’s 2026 archive index names ten Atlantic systems, from Tropical Storm Arthur through Subtropical Storm Josephine, with Hurricane Isaias the only hurricane on the list. Kyle would be the eleventh. AccuWeather’s coverage, written by senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, counted Josephine as the season’s tenth named storm and described it as a former nor’easter that gained tropical traits over the Gulf Stream, then accelerated toward Atlantic Canada. Josephine itself did real damage for such a short-lived storm: according to The Weather Channel, rising surf from Josephine cut off homes on the Outer Banks.
The lesson from Josephine is that “no threat to the U.S.” describes the track, not the surf. A system that stays hundreds of miles offshore can still push swell toward the Outer Banks, and the Weather Channel’s forecast for Kyle only says the low is expected to move away to the east or northeast.
A quiet Atlantic and a busier Pacific
The Atlantic has recorded about two weeks without activity since Josephine, and no other area is flagged on the hurricane center’s outlook page. The Pacific looks different. The same page, in its 10 p.m. PST Sunday issuance, showed a broad low well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands with a 10% chance of development within 48 hours and 60% within seven days, and said a tropical depression could form in the middle to latter part of the week as it moves west or west-northwest over the Central Pacific.
The figure to watch in the Atlantic is that 30% seven-day chance. The Weather Channel’s reading is that the low has this week to organize, and the hurricane center’s next outlooks will show whether the odds rise, hold or fade before the weekend closes the window.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
Help yourself and the planet: Get The Cool Down →
We may earn a commission if you sign up.
More from Morning Overview
- Hybrids have 15% fewer problems than gas cars, while EVs and plug-in hybrids have about 80% more, Consumer Reports finds
- Regulators cleared the first U.S. small modular reactor, 4 months early
- Lake Powell sank to a record 3,517 feet, nearing the level that stops Glen Canyon Dam’s turbines
- Seven of Earth’s nine planetary boundaries are breached, and all seven are worsening
