New England is seeing highs in the 60s and 70s in November yet again

New England is forecast to see highs in the 60s and 70s again on Thursday, with the National Weather Service in Boston calling for upper 60s to low 70s through midweek and isolated mid-70s. Normal highs for early November run in the mid-50s to low 60s, so the stretch sits well above average. A frontal system arriving Thursday evening in western Massachusetts and Connecticut is expected to end the run, moving east through Friday.

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Daily records are in play at a few sites, though no forecaster was calling for a sweep of the books.

Boston, Hartford and Providence against the record book

NWS Boston’s discussion issued at 12:35 a.m. EST Tuesday raised Wednesday and Thursday highs in the Connecticut and Merrimack valleys by 3 to 5 degrees, to the mid and possibly upper 70s. Ensembles gave high odds of highs above 70 degrees on Wednesday afternoon and up to 90 percent odds in southern parts of the coastal plain on Thursday. The ensemble odds matter because individual model runs can vary by several degrees at this range, and the office leaned on the group of runs rather than a single one. It listed daily records to watch: Boston at 78 degrees on Wednesday (set in 1987) and 79 on Thursday (1994); Hartford’s Bradley airport at 78 (1987) and 75 (2022); Providence at 77 (1987) and 75 (1994); Worcester at 74 (1987) and 73 (1994).

Nights are warm too. Dew points climb into the 50s and 60s from Wednesday night through Friday, and the same discussion listed record-warm lows to watch, among them 56 degrees for Boston on Thursday (1994) and 57 on Friday (2020). Mild nights are what make a November warm spell feel unusual rather than merely pleasant.

A 1030-millibar high and the Globe’s streak math

Boston Globe forecaster Ken Mahan, writing on Nov. 1, tied the warmth to a strong high-pressure system near 1030 millibars centered to the south-southeast. He put Greater Boston near 70 on Monday and in the lower 70s on Tuesday, with Cape Cod and the Islands in the mid-60s and Providence near 70. Normal highs in the first week of November, he noted, sit in the mid-50s to low 60s. Mornings were far cooler than the afternoons promised: lows in the 40s to near 50 around Boston and in the mid-30s across central and western Massachusetts on Monday, followed by upper-60s afternoons. Rhode Island ran mid- to upper 60s on Monday and near 70 inland on Tuesday.

Mahan also ran the streak math. Boston’s record for consecutive 70-degree days is four, set in 2020 and 2022, and the most 70-degree days in any November is six. If Boston reached 70 Monday and held through Friday, the consecutive record could fall, which he labeled an outside chance. He judged daily records unlikely in Greater Boston but said New Hampshire could see a couple on Wednesday, with Manchester’s forecast high of 73 tying its 2022 mark.

The Globe’s outlook ran past Wednesday. Temperatures could hold in the upper 60s into Friday and Saturday, Friday looks mild and muggy, and cooling is likely over the weekend. A frontal system could bring rain Friday into early Saturday, though Mahan called its significance uncertain and said it might move out quickly enough to leave Saturday mostly dry. NWS Boston, for its part, said onset is expected Thursday evening at the earliest in western Massachusetts and Connecticut, then moving east through Friday.

Contrast with the other coast sharpens the picture. The Climate Prediction Center’s October 26 discussion expected a broad trough over the eastern Pacific and western U.S., with near to below normal temperatures favored across most of the West, while above normal readings dominated the central and eastern states. Warmth in Boston and a storm train aimed at the Northwest are two ends of one large-scale pattern.

Lower 48 anomaly and the outlook into mid-November

The regional warmth sits inside a continental pattern. The Weather Trader post for Wednesday reported the Lower 48 running 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit above normal and expected well above normal temperatures to continue into mid-November. The same post flagged interior New England snowfall as likely once the cold front arrives, while cautioning against looking for snow elsewhere in the region yet. It also described the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast staying mild while the cold front moves slowly, which fits the Thursday-evening arrival in western New England that NWS Boston sketched, and which leaves eastern areas warm for a few more hours into Friday.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its 8-14 day outlook on November 4 for the period November 12 through 18; the page publishes the map rather than text. The center’s earlier prognostic discussion from October 26 favored above normal temperatures across the central and eastern country, with probabilities above 70 percent over most of the eastern U.S. in the 6-10 day window and above 60 percent over the Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley in the 8-14 day window.

The unresolved piece is how firmly the cold side arrives. Boston’s forecasters expect showers to linger into Sunday in parts of the region after the Thursday-evening onset, and the Globe described its Friday-into-Saturday front as uncertain in strength. Whether temperatures drop back toward the mid-50s norm or merely shave a few degrees is open; none of the discussions published through Wednesday gave a firm cooldown figure.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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