The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that a typical household heating with oil will spend $2,115 on fuel from November through March, up 21% from last winter, while the average home heated with natural gas is projected to spend $640, down 9%. The numbers are a forecast of seasonal spending, not a monthly bill and not a pump price, and they are averages across the country that hide large regional differences. Oil is the outlier: gas, propane and electricity all land within a few percentage points of last winter, or below it.
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Oil heat is a small market: about 3% of U.S. households, mostly in the Northeast, while natural gas or propane heat about half, per EIA’s October outlook text. Oil homes face the largest increase of any fuel.
EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook, Fuel by Fuel
EIA published its Winter Fuels Outlook for 2026-27 on Oct. 6, 2026, with forecast inputs finalized on Oct. 1 and built on the October Short-Term Energy Outlook. Every percentage change is measured against the 2025-26 winter, all figures are nominal at an assumed inflation rate of about 2%, and the expenditure estimates cover each home’s main heating fuel, including non-heating uses such as water heating and cooking. The agency’s outlook data workbook and its STEO monthly tables carry the underlying series.
For heating oil, the national table shows expenditure of $2,115, up 21%, on a price of $5.26 a gallon, up 34%, and consumption of 402 gallons, down 9%. Higher consumption is not driving the increase; price is, and a milder winter in the Northeast, where most oil homes sit, offsets part of it. EIA also lists monthly price assumptions that step down through the season: $5.79 a gallon in November, $5.46 in December, $5.26 in January, $5.06 in February and $4.84 in March.
Natural gas shows the mirror image. The U.S. average expenditure of $640 reflects a price of $13.44 per thousand cubic feet, down 9%, with consumption flat against last winter. Electricity is forecast at $1,196, up 4%, on a price of 18.23 cents per kilowatt-hour, and propane at $1,246, down 3%. The Northeast, the region that leans hardest on oil, still sees gas households spend less: $879, down 14%, with a warmer winter and a lower price both helping.
Crude, Diesel and Inventories Behind the Oil Increase
EIA ties the oil increase to crude and diesel markets. Its October outlook text says Brent crude averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, after attacks on Middle East oil infrastructure and tankers, and forecasts $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter with Middle East shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels a day. Retail diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September and the agency expects retail distillate prices to stay above $6 a gallon in October before easing gradually.
Heating oil moves quickly. EIA notes that heating oil and propane retail prices typically reflect wholesale changes within four to six weeks, while natural gas and electricity retail prices lag because of utility regulation. Inventories add pressure: East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, and EIA expects them to stay 20% to 30% below average through the winter, reaching a low of 22.6 million barrels in April.
The forecast’s weak points
A forecast of winter spending is only as good as its weather and price assumptions. The base case assumes national temperatures about the same as last winter, 3,155 heating degree days, with the Northeast 12% warmer, the Midwest 2% warmer, the South 1% colder and the West 25% colder. The West is the exception to the gas savings: natural gas expenditure there is forecast at $590, up 7%, as colder weather lifts consumption by 17% even though price falls 8%.
EIA also runs side cases with every region 10% colder or 10% warmer than the base case, and it flags that NOAA identifies a strong El Niño pattern, which could pull temperatures well away from the forecast. The agency warns that continued disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes could cause more short-term price volatility than its forecast shows. Households can track the weekly picture on EIA’s heating oil and propane update.
For a household on oil, the arithmetic is straightforward: a forecast $2,115 season against a gas household’s $640 is a gap of about $1,475 on national averages, though the two groups differ in climate, home size and region, and the outlook counts each home’s main heating fuel only. In the Northeast, where oil homes cluster, the same document points the other way for gas customers: $879, down 14%, helped by a winter forecast 12% warmer in heating degree days. Actual bills will depend on how cold the winter turns out, on how long the Middle East supply disruption lasts, and on where crude and diesel prices settle after the forecast inputs were finalized on Oct. 1. EIA’s own heating oil figures of $5.79 a gallon in November falling to $4.84 by March show how much of the season’s cost sits in the first weeks.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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