Heavy rain was forecast to slam the Interstate 95 corridor through Thursday, Nov. 5, with localized totals of 2 to 3 inches possible along the coast from Virginia to southeast New England. More than an inch was in the forecast for much of the corridor itself. The storm behind it is a cross-country system that FOX Weather expected to affect more than 35 states and 120 million people by the end of the week.
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A coastal strip from southeastern Virginia to Cape Cod
The heaviest ribbon of water follows the Atlantic seaboard rather than the highway itself. AccuWeather traced a narrow corridor running from southeastern Virginia across the Delmarva Peninsula, which takes in parts of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia, then through New Jersey and Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts. Inside it, 1 to 4 inches could fall over roughly 24 to 36 hours, from Thursday night through Friday night, with downpours near an inch an hour and a Local StormMax of 6 inches. Connecticut and Rhode Island sit on the northern half of that track. CBS Boston’s forecast team expects the sharpest totals in southeastern Massachusetts, including southern Plymouth and Bristol counties, Cape Cod and the Islands.
FOX Weather’s Julian Atienza and Alexandra Myers wrote that rain would continue through Friday and taper from south to north, lingering over southern New England until Saturday morning. The forecast split the Northeast in two: a wet coastal edge and a much lighter interior. Areas north and west of Boston may see less than an inch, and some may see very little, according to WBZ-TV executive weather producer Terry Eliasen.
The rain follows a week of severe weather farther south. Storms raced across the South on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with Tornado Warnings in northern Louisiana and a confirmed tornado in Bossier Parish, and a flash flood emergency erupted on Thursday along the Georgia-Tennessee line. The same system then shifts east, bringing showers and storms to the coast on Thursday and ending a stretch of more than two weeks of dry, sunny weather in parts of the Northeast.
The front that stalls along the coast on Friday
Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said a front was expected to stall along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts from Friday into early Saturday, and he warned that this is the type of setup that can quickly lead to flash flooding when heavy cells track repeatedly over the same neighborhoods. AccuWeather’s outlook notes that precise placement matters, because New York City, Philadelphia, Washington and Boston sit near the northwestern edge of the heavy band.
The federal forecast agrees on the broad shape. In its 3:22 p.m. EST discussion on Nov. 5, the Weather Prediction Center posted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, with rain moving from the Northeast to the Southeast from Thursday evening into Saturday and a few embedded thunderstorms through Friday night. That discussion also reports Flood Watches in effect for parts of New England through Saturday morning. Local Weather Service pages told the same story in shorter form. The Mount Holly office, which covers Philadelphia, led its Nov. 4 evening update with rain and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast on Thursday but posted no totals there. The Prediction Center’s excessive rainfall outlook was reissued at 0018Z on Nov. 6, valid from 0100Z to 1200Z that day, and the mapped risk areas sit in graphics rather than text, so the sorting of Slight and Marginal zones is best read there.
Cooler air follows. AccuWeather expects interior highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees through the weekend, a few degrees below average, with mid-Atlantic coastal highs in the 50s to lower 60s and a few wet snowflakes mixing in over higher terrain. Anderson added that showers and cooler air should lower the wildfire risk despite breezy conditions, and Joe Lundberg, AccuWeather’s senior long-range meteorologist, said the change follows what may be the warmest day in the Northeast until March or April.
Friday flash flood risk tiers on Long Island and in southern New England
FOX Weather placed a Level 1 of 4 flash flood risk for Friday over Suffolk County on Long Island, parts of eastern Connecticut and southeast Massachusetts. A Level 2 covered Newport and Providence, Rhode Island, and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. Forecasters said the rain could help ease dry conditions in the Northeast, though the downpours might cause minor flooding.
The reason for caution is the ground. After a long dry stretch, leaves clog storm drains, and WBZ saw no concern about large river flooding or widespread flooding, only localized street and urban flooding under the heaviest bands. Drought also continues across New England, particularly Maine, where rain this far south does little.
Slick pavement and rail slowdowns around Philadelphia
The Weather Service’s Mount Holly office warned that up to 3 inches could fall in the heaviest-rain areas, most likely along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, though the exact location was uncertain, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Philadelphia itself was expected to get half an inch to an inch, with steadier rain Thursday night into Friday and slick roads possible during the Friday morning commute.
PennDOT spokesperson Brad Rudolph said crews were clearing drains, inlets and debris on interstates and major routes. SEPTA spokesperson Andrew Busch said Regional Rail riders should expect slowdowns of about 10 mph from top speeds, usually lasting a few minutes, and that a track-cleaning train would run that night. Whether the 2-to-3-inch band sets up over the Jersey Shore or farther east is the forecast detail the Weather Service still had open on Nov. 5.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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