Grid regulators say last winter’s storms were survived, not solved

Peak generator outages across the Eastern and Texas interconnections hit 68,169 megawatts on January 26, 2026, almost the same as the 71,022 megawatts recorded in the January 2025 Arctic outbreak. No utility had to shed load manually. Those two facts, from the joint review that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released on September 10, frame what the regulators concluded: the grid held, and the reasons it could fail next time are still in place.

The review covers Winter Storms Fern and Gianna, which stretched across late January and into early February. Its authors credit better preparation for the improvement over earlier events, and then list what the next cold snap will test again.

No manual load shed: the performance the review credits

FERC’s announcement of the review says the bulk power system showed resilience with no significant disruptions to either the natural gas or the electric system. The commission and NERC attribute that to applying lessons from earlier winter reviews, generators committed ahead of the storms, stronger preparedness and situational awareness, implementation of NERC’s cold-weather reliability standards, and emergency orders from the Secretary of Energy.

FERC Chairman Laura Swett said the findings show why the commission’s weather reviews are critical, since they guide ongoing improvements and strengthen the bulk electric system’s resilience and reliability. NERC President and CEO Jim Robb said the steps industry has taken are making a difference, adding that improved preparation, better coordination and the new cold-weather standards helped the system perform well under very challenging conditions.

The numbers in the joint report back the improvement while showing its limits. On January 26, generator unavailability peaked at 49,701 megawatts in the Eastern Interconnection and 19,472 megawatts in Texas. That is far below the 90,500 megawatts of Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, but roughly level with January 2025. MGrid’s account of the report adds that the Department of Energy issued 15 emergency orders under the Federal Power Act, and that U.S. peak electric use reached 666 gigawatts.

Gas supply, load forecasts and consumables: the open items

The report calls Winter 2026 an endurance challenge, one that demands sustained operational resilience rather than only preparation for peak conditions. It then names weaknesses. Day-ahead load forecasts under-predicted demand by between 3.9 and 10.5 percent, natural gas production fell by as much as 14 percent nationwide, extended fuel-oil operations created shortages of demineralized water at some plants, and neighboring regions’ fuel choices created secondary effects elsewhere.

Natural gas demand hit a record 172 billion cubic feet a day on January 24, and storage withdrawals matched the previous record of 359 billion cubic feet set in January 2018. Industrial Info Resources summarized the review with the line that improved performance did not eliminate the underlying and ongoing vulnerabilities that can emerge when extreme cold persists for several days. That sentence is the trade publication’s characterization, and the report’s own text is the more specific record: generator outages remained significant during Fern and Gianna even as the system outperformed earlier outbreaks.

The review also records that natural gas infrastructure came through comparatively well, with only moderate production declines and limited, short-duration force majeure events, and that this relative success is part of why the report treats gas supply as a continuing priority rather than a crisis. Production still fell by as much as 14 percent nationwide at the worst point, and the electric side’s dependence on that fuel is the thread connecting most of the report’s open items, from fuel-oil switching to the shortages of demineralized water that extended fuel-oil operation created.

The recommendations FERC lists in its release are the same three the trade coverage repeats: more natural gas infrastructure, closer coordination between the gas and electric industries, and better load forecasting. The American Public Power Association’s summary lists them as opportunities for enhancement, a milder phrase than a finding of failure and one that matches the review’s tone throughout.

Data center backup generation and Robb’s warning

One finding sits outside the usual gas-and-weatherization list. According to MGrid, FERC engineer Robert Clark said no one called on backup generation at data centers or other large loads during the 2026 storms, although DOE’s orders had authorized grid operators to direct it. The report identifies the reason as an information problem: operators do not know whether most large loads run on grid power and backup generation at the same time, and there is no standard reporting for backup capability.

The same release carries a line from Robb that explains why the regulators stop short of declaring the problem fixed. He cautioned against letting conditions the system only just handled become the new norm of operating the grid.

The quantity that stays open is the forecast miss. If day-ahead demand projections can run 10.5 percent low during a multi-day cold event, as the report records, then operators were working from planning numbers that were sometimes well short of actual demand, and the report lists better load forecasting among its three recommendations alongside more gas infrastructure and tighter gas-electric coordination.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.