Rain in the valleys, wet snow on the ridges: on Thursday, Nov. 12, a coastal low pushing from the Ohio Valley toward southern New England turned the higher terrain of Vermont and northern New York into the first real snow ground of the season. Winter Weather Advisories took effect at 10 a.m. and run until 10 a.m. Friday, Nov. 13, for the central and southern Green Mountains and the southern Adirondacks, according to NWS Burlington.
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Elevation decides everything in this storm. The same system that leaves a slushy coating below 1,000 feet is expected to put several inches on summits and ridges above 2,000 feet, which is why forecasters drew the advisories around the mountain zones rather than the lake-valley towns.
Advisory zones in Addison, Rutland and Essex counties
Burlington’s advisory product, issued at 12:29 p.m. EST on Nov. 12, covers Eastern Addison and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont (zones 018 and 019) and Western Essex County in New York (zone 034). Named places in the product include Bristol, Killington, Ripton and East Wallingford on the Vermont side and Lake Placid and Newcomb in the Adirondacks. Its wording describes wet snow, mainly above 1,200 feet, with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation.
Impacts are practical ones. Roads, especially bridges and overpasses, are likely to turn slick, and the product flags both the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. Snow starts at higher elevations during the day and spreads across the advisory areas after 7 p.m. as the snow level drops.
Totals by elevation band: 2 to 5 inches up high, a slushy coating below
The morning forecast discussion from NWS Burlington, issued at 6:32 a.m. EST, spells out the gradient. Its most-likely scenario is 2 to 5 inches for the southern Adirondacks, the central Greens and the southern Greens around and above 2,000 feet. Between 1,000 and 2,000 feet the range falls to 0 to 2 inches, and below 1,000 feet the forecasters expect a slushy coating at most.
Timing explains the shape of those numbers. Precipitation begins as rain in the valleys and as snow at the summits, and the snow level is forecast to sit near or below 1,000 feet by Friday morning, late in the event. Southern Vermont is the main uncertainty: if a mesoscale band of heavier precipitation sets up there, brief valley-floor accumulations are possible, according to the Burlington forecasters.
The setup behind the totals is a gradually deepening surface low tracking from the Ohio Valley east over southern New England. Burlington’s first key message in its discussion is that the coastal low brings widespread lower-elevation rain and wet snow mainly above 1,200 feet through Thursday and Thursday night. Wet snow packs heavier than the dry kind, which is why a 2-inch accumulation on a bridge deck can matter more than the number suggests.
The season’s first widespread accumulating snowfall
By Friday morning, Burlington’s discussion has the snow level near or below 1,000 feet, so the lower slopes pick up their coating late in the event rather than at the start. For valley towns, the forecast stays closer to rain and slush than to shoveling. The Weather Prediction Center adds a second source of snow: in its late-afternoon short-range forecast discussion of Nov. 12, snow develops downwind of the Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast through Saturday, a pattern that keeps the mountains in play after the coastal low departs.
Nationally, the Weather Prediction Center frames the event as larger than one office’s advisory. Its Nov. 12 outlook says the first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season is expected across mainly higher elevations of upstate New York, Pennsylvania and New England, from late Thursday into Saturday morning, Nov. 14. The Catskills, the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains get the highest odds, a 50 to 80 percent chance of exceeding 4 inches, while valleys such as the Hudson and Connecticut valleys see no more than about a 10 percent chance of reaching 1 inch.
Those higher-end figures come with a caveat the Burlington office states itself: the 2 to 5 inch range is its deterministic most-likely scenario, not a ceiling. The advisory product shows a slightly tighter 2 to 4 inches for its named counties, so a reader comparing the two Burlington products will see a one-inch difference at the top, a reminder of how much a few hundred feet of elevation changes the answer in the Greens and Adirondacks.
Two end times are worth keeping separate. The local advisories expire at 10 a.m. Friday, Nov. 13, but the national outlook runs snow chances through Saturday morning, so a mountain road can stay snowy after an advisory lapses. The NWS Burlington office page and the Weather Prediction Center carry the latest wording if the advisory is extended, upgraded or allowed to expire.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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