A snow calendar for the Sierra runs from Friday, Nov. 13 to Thursday, Nov. 19, and National Weather Service forecasters in Reno have penciled in as many as three systems on it. Only the first has a warning attached; the second is a forecast with probabilities, and the third is still a maybe. The pattern comes from the office’s forecast discussion issued at 2:33 p.m. PST on Nov. 12.
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Spacing is the story. The storms are separated by dry stretches, they differ in temperature and wind, and each one asks something different of a skier, a trucker or a commuter over Donner Pass. Reno’s discussion reads like a staggered sequence rather than one long siege, with the strongest wind belonging to the opener.
Storm one starts Friday, Nov. 13 at 10 a.m.
The opener is the one with paperwork. A Winter Storm Warning for the Greater Lake Tahoe Area begins at 10 a.m. Friday, and Mono County’s starts at 1 p.m., both extending to 10 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 14, per the Reno forecast discussion. It is a wind-and-snow event, with south to southwest gusts that reach the 45 to 55 mph range in exposed valleys. For planning, the break arrives quickly, with dry weather from Saturday afternoon through much of Sunday.
Why the sequence matters for the mountains is the order of operations. A warm, windy opener followed by a colder, calmer second storm means the first event can leave a wet base, and the second can bury it with lighter snow that blows around less. Reno’s discussion draws that contrast itself when it calls the second storm colder with weaker winds, a recipe for powder that stays where it lands.
Friday also sets the template for what the later storms will be compared against. Mono County’s snow level is forecast to fall toward 6,000 feet late Friday as the system pulls colder air in behind it, and western Nevada gets mostly rain on Friday afternoon and evening rather than snow. Reno’s forecasters frame the opener as the storm with the most wind, with gusts up to 70 mph in spots such as Lundy Canyon and Lee Vining, which is a different hazard from the quieter snowfall expected to follow.
Storm two arrives late Sunday night, colder and calmer
Forecasters describe the second system as colder, with weaker winds pushing moisture up the range. The steadiest Tahoe snow is expected from late Sunday night, Nov. 15, into Monday morning, Nov. 16, then Monday afternoon and evening in Mono County, with showers into early Tuesday. Several passes could pick up 3 to 8 inches, and amounts approach a foot along parts of the crest.
Reno put numbers on the odds. Across the life of the second storm, the chance of more than 6 inches runs 45 to 60 percent at several Tahoe-area passes and about 75 percent along the higher crest. Western Nevada valleys, by contrast, are forecast to get only a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch of rain, with more along the Sierra front. A lower snow level and lighter wind mean snow that sticks and stays on road surfaces, a different driving problem from Friday’s gale.
The possible third storm from the Gulf of Alaska
The third entry is the least certain, and the forecast discussion treats it that way. After a few Sierra snow showers on Tuesday afternoon, Nov. 17, mainly in Mono County, and a mostly dry Tuesday night across western Nevada, a colder system approaching from the Gulf of Alaska could bring another round of Sierra snow by Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 18, continuing into Thursday. The office did not give totals for it, but said the snow could reach the western Nevada foothills and possibly some valley floors, depending on how much moisture remains.
The Weather Prediction Center’s Nov. 12 discussion covers only the early part of the sequence, calling for heavy Sierra snow and noting that warnings were in effect, so the Wednesday-Thursday storm rests on Reno’s forecast alone. Its position in the sequence also means it would hit a snowpack already rebuilt by the first two events.
Between systems, the discussion offers clean windows. Dry weather covers the Sierra and western Nevada from Saturday afternoon through much of Sunday, and Monday’s snow in Mono County comes later in the day than at Tahoe, so the two areas do not share a single schedule. Tuesday afternoon brings only a few Sierra snow showers, mainly in Mono County, before the third system’s Wednesday afternoon arrival. A traveler heading over the passes has roughly two full days, Saturday evening through Sunday, and again most of Tuesday, where the forecast does not call for organized snow.
For anyone sorting travel days, the Reno forecasters’ own structure is the guide: Friday, Nov. 13 is the warned day, Saturday afternoon through Sunday is the open window, the late Sunday-Monday event is the one with the probability tables, and the Wednesday-Thursday system is a watch-this-space item. The NWS Reno office page, the warning bulletins and the Weather Prediction Center will show whether the third storm firms up or fades.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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