A report from the Environmental Protection Network, a group of former EPA staff, estimates that air pollution tied to powering AI data centers could account for roughly 1,300 premature deaths and 600,000 asthma symptom cases in the United States by 2028. The figures come from a high-growth scenario, and the report’s authors say they would climb if federal safeguards weaken further.
Most of that burden does not come from the diesel generators that sit beside server halls. It comes from the power plants that supply the grid, which is why the report pairs its health numbers with a list of 30 federal actions it says have increased pollution risk since January 2025. Utility Dive covered the findings on September 28, though the report itself was released September 10.
Origin of the 1,300 deaths and 600,000 asthma cases
The Environmental Protection Network, which describes itself as more than 800 former EPA scientists, toxicologists, engineers and policy analysts, published “Hidden Health Costs of AI Data Centers” as part of its Safer, Not Sicker campaign. In its announcement, the network put the projection at “roughly $11.7 billion to $20.9 billion in annual public-health costs by 2028,” alongside roughly 600,000 asthma symptom cases and 1,300 premature deaths.
The network did not run the model itself. The estimates rest on research by Yuelin Han, Zhifeng Wu, Pengfei Li, Adam Wierman and Shaolei Ren of UC Riverside, the Rochester Institute of Technology and Caltech, who used an EPA model to convert emissions into health effects. Their paper, posted to arXiv and cited in the EPN report as accepted for Communications of the ACM, has been revised since it first appeared in December 2024. The original Caltech announcement described 1,300 annual deaths by 2030.
The 1,300 figure is a rounded version of a more precise number. According to the full EPN report, the high-growth scenario yields 1,262 premature deaths, and the report notes that health costs tied to data centers rise 213 percent from 2023 to 2028.
Power plants carry most of the toll
The report is explicit about who is responsible for most of the damage. Of the 1,262 estimated deaths, 1,165 are attributed to electricity generation, and about $19.3 billion of the $20.9 billion upper-end annual cost. On-site backup generators, the equipment most people picture when they hear about data center pollution, make up a smaller share of the national estimate.
The distinction changes how the totals should be read. The 1,300 deaths are not a count of people harmed by diesel engines idling behind a warehouse; they reflect the extra fossil-fired generation needed to meet AI’s appetite for power, spread across whole regions. In the most affected counties, per-household health costs can reach about seven times the national average, according to the report. Dr. Lynn Goldman, a pediatrician and former EPA assistant administrator, said in the network’s announcement that living near a data center is not a prerequisite for being affected by it.
Backup generators in Virginia
Backup generators matter most locally. The report models Virginia, home to the country’s densest cluster of data centers, and assumes generators run at just 10 percent of their permitted emission levels. Even then it finds about 14,000 asthma symptom cases, 13 to 19 premature deaths, and $220 million to $300 million in annual public-health costs. At maximum permitted levels the cost estimate climbs to $2.2 billion to $3 billion.
The Virginia figures are why the report says data center operators should have to disclose what their equipment actually emits. “Those requirements matter not only for estimating pollution, but for determining whether equipment is operating as permitted and whether pollution limits are being met,” the report states, a line aimed at monitoring and reporting rules that it says federal agencies have loosened.
The federal actions the report blames
The second half of the report catalogs what it calls rollbacks. It counts at least 30 federal actions since January 2025 that raise pollution-related health risks, 17 of which explicitly cite AI or data centers. Three get particular attention: an EPA rule letting small and medium temporary turbines run for up to two years with lighter monitoring, an EPA interpretive letter allowing backup generators to join utility demand-response programs, and a Department of Energy emergency order (No. 202-26-23, dated May 18, 2026) that authorized PJM Interconnection to call on data center backup generation during grid stress.
On the turbine rule, the report calculates that nitrogen oxide emissions would be about 89 percent higher than under the stronger 2024 proposal, roughly 2,659 tons versus 296 tons a year by 2032, according to its own comparison. It urges EPA to “put its public-health mission ahead of advancing AI infrastructure” and to restore safeguards for soot, mercury and air toxics.
The estimates are scenarios, not measurements. The report itself warns that “if weaker safeguards, delayed power plant retirements, new fossil generation, or expanded generator use increase emissions beyond the study’s assumptions, the health burden will be higher.” Whether EPA or the Energy Department answers the 30-item list is the open question, and Utility Dive’s coverage did not quote a response from either agency.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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