Colombia’s government declared a national disaster in July 2026 to prepare for a drought that a strong El Nino is expected to bring this fall and winter, and the risk is now reaching the country’s power sector. Hydropower supplied 81% of Colombia’s electricity in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, so a dry spell can cut output at the same moment natural gas is harder to find. The EIA published its analysis on October 29, 2026.
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Gas is the backup, and its supply is shrinking. Marketed production fell from 1,070 million cubic feet per day in 2022 to 772 in 2025, then averaged 673 from January through August 2026. Liquefied natural gas imports reached a record 31% of monthly supply in July 2026, filling a gap that domestic fields no longer cover.
The decree and the forecast behind it
Decree 0802, dated July 23, 2026, sets the disaster status for 12 months under Law 1523 of 2012 on disaster risk management, according to El Universal. It lets the executive activate legal mechanisms for water supply, farm production, ecosystems and essential public services. President Gustavo Petro said on X that a mega-drought would hit much of the national territory between December 2026 and March 2027, and the package reported by The Star included an emergency fund, a water-saving plan, food-security help for vulnerable regions and a call on companies to supply solar panels. Colombia’s weather institute IDEAM said El Nino was already affecting much of the country.
The forecast has only firmed since. The Climate Prediction Center’s October 8 discussion kept an El Nino Advisory in effect, gave a chance above 83% of a strong to very strong event through January to March 2027, and reported ocean temperature anomalies above 4.0 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Nino-3.4 index stood at plus 2.1 degrees, already above the 2.0-degree line that NOAA uses to define a very strong event, against 1.5 degrees for a strong one. The EIA adds that El Nino typically brings drier-than-normal weather to northern South America from December through February.
Petro described the measures as medium-term and urged the incoming government, which took office in August, to coordinate them responsibly with short-term actions, and he called for audits of all assigned works. The decree therefore works as a legal frame that the next administration inherited, rather than a finished energy plan, and the power-sector steps came later under President de la Espriella.
How far hydropower has already slipped
The EIA’s Today in Energy note compares three snapshots. In 2025 hydropower supplied 81% of electricity, natural gas 8% and coal 4%. In March 2024, during the last strong El Nino, hydropower dropped to 55% while gas rose to 22% and coal to 15%. In July 2026 hydropower was already down to 66%, with coal and gas at 12% each.
So the cushion is thinner than in 2025 before the dry season even starts. The EIA says natural gas will likely play a larger role if a strong El Nino persists, and gas use in the power sector spiked in both 2023 and 2024 during earlier strong events.
A gas system that is running down
The EIA ties the import dependence to field declines. Major fields including Cusiana, Cupiagua, Pauto Sur and offshore Guajira have been falling since 2022, with no large discovery developed to replace them. Proved reserves dropped 39% between 2022 and 2025, to 1.7 trillion cubic feet, according to the National Hydrocarbons Agency. Imports therefore depend on regasification capacity: SPEC LNG near Cartagena is the only operating terminal, an expansion is expected to finish in 2026, possibly by the end of October according to Promigas, and the Buenaventura terminal targets a November 2026 start. Two more, Puerto Bahia and Ballenas, could begin in 2027.
The new government’s blackout deadline
Politics has since changed hands, and the energy response with it. Reporting by Primicias says Colombia officially declared El Nino on October 8, and in a televised address on October 10 President Abelardo de la Espriella set December 31, 2026 as the deadline for measures to avoid blackouts. He ordered a special team to work on thermal generation and reservoir management and blamed his predecessor for poor energy planning, while Energy Minister Maria Noemi Arboleda warned about the system’s reliability.
The plan called Energia Ya offers a bill credit to households that cut monthly use more than 10% below an individual target and an extra charge to those that overshoot by more than 10%. IDEAM forecasts below-average rain from October through December, with December the most critical month. Interconnection with Ecuador allows imports of up to 450 megawatts, but Colombia has exported no power to Ecuador since early September, because a resolution requires it to meet domestic demand first.
The unresolved timing is whether new LNG capacity arrives before the dry months do. Promigas has said the SPEC expansion could finish as early as the end of October, and the Climate Prediction Center will issue its next El Nino update on November 12, which will show whether the event keeps strengthening ahead of the December deadline.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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