Hurricane Nolo strengthened to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on September 24, 2026, and forecasters say it could dump up to 35 inches of rain on the southeastern side of Hawaii’s Big Island before the weekend is over. The National Hurricane Center’s Central Pacific branch placed Nolo about 270 miles south of South Point at 5 p.m. Thursday, moving north-northeast at 5 mph, with a Hurricane Watch posted for Hawaii County and forecasters expecting the storm to reach major-hurricane strength before it makes its closest pass to the island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for Hawaii County, and a Tropical Storm Watch covers Maui County, according to the agency’s Thursday advisory. Nolo’s track calls for it to keep moving north-northeast through Friday before turning sharply west on Saturday, passing south of the Big Island as it intensifies — a path that keeps the heaviest rain bands parked over the same stretch of coastline for days rather than moving through quickly.
A hurricane watch covers Hawaii County
The National Hurricane Center’s 18th public advisory on Nolo forecasts 15 to 30 inches of rain across the eastern and southern Big Island, with isolated totals reaching 35 inches in the wettest spots. The same advisory calls for 4 to 8 inches on Maui, with localized amounts up to 15 inches, and 1 to 3 inches elsewhere in the island chain. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is forecast for Hawaii County’s coastline, on top of whatever rainfall runoff the terrain cannot absorb.
Nolo’s tropical-storm-force winds extend roughly 90 miles from the center, and the National Hurricane Center’s storm tracker lists it as the only active system in the Central Pacific basin. Tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive on the Big Island by late Friday, with hurricane-force conditions possible by early Saturday as the storm’s core passes closest to the island’s south side.
Catastrophic flooding is the bigger threat than wind
Hawaii’s state emergency agency, in an update posted to its Tropical Storm Nolo tracking page, warned that “catastrophic flooding is possible on Hawaii Island on Friday and Saturday with life-threatening landslides possible, especially in steep areas.” National Weather Service meteorologist Jon Bravender put the rainfall math in blunt terms, saying forecasters were looking at “rainfall totals potentially 20 to 30 inches of rainfall through the next four days, which could cause catastrophic flooding.”
Coverage from the Hawaii Tribune-Herald confirms a flood watch is in effect for Hawaii County through Saturday afternoon, with the greatest risk on windward and southeast-facing slopes — the same terrain the Hurricane Center’s advisory singles out for the 35-inch maximum. Landslides are a specific concern in that terrain because saturated slopes can fail well after the heaviest rain band has passed, not only during the peak of the storm. Roads cut into those hillsides have failed in past Big Island storms carrying far less rainfall than the totals in Thursday’s advisory, which is part of why emergency officials are treating the flooding threat as more dangerous than Nolo’s wind field.
The state is pre-positioning shelters and the National Guard
Hawaii Governor Josh Green, quoted by Hawaii News Now, warned that the storm “can get very serious very fast” and said the state planned to “pre-position some hotel rooms for people if they want to evacuate earlier.” Green extended the state’s emergency proclamation for the storm through November 21, a window that covers both the immediate landfall threat and the cleanup that would follow catastrophic flooding.
Hawaii National Guard Maj. Gen. Stephen Logan said 232 Guard personnel “are positioned to support response and recovery efforts,” with authorization in place to grow that number to 500 if conditions worsen; more than 50 additional personnel and five high-water vehicle teams are staged on Maui. State Transportation Director Ed Sniffen said road crews expect “the low points in Kawa Flats and Honu’apo to flood,” and the state has set up sandbag distribution stations across Hawaii Island ahead of the heaviest rain. Crews were also working through Thursday to clear drainage systems and repair infrastructure already damaged by earlier storms this season, ahead of the additional rain Nolo is expected to bring.
What happens through the weekend
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast still carries real uncertainty about exactly how close Nolo’s core comes to the Big Island’s coastline, since a small shift in the Saturday westward turn would change which communities see the advisory’s upper rainfall figures and which see totals closer to the lower end of the 15-to-30-inch range. What is not in question, based on Thursday’s advisory, is that a Category 1 hurricane packing 75 mph winds is on a track to sit near southeast Hawaii Island through the weekend, with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s own language — catastrophic flooding, life-threatening landslides — setting the bar for how residents there are being told to prepare.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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