EV sales fell to 6% of new vehicles a year after federal tax credits expired, EIA says

Battery-electric vehicles made up 6% of new light-duty vehicle sales in the United States in the third quarter of 2026, down from 10% in the same quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency’s Today in Energy note, published Oct. 19, 2026, ties the drop to the end of federal purchase incentives on Sept. 30, 2025, and says it is the latest step in a decline that began in 2025.

Help yourself and the planet: The Cool Down makes it easy to help yourself while helping the planet, with smart, simple changes to save more and waste less in your everyday life.

Get The Cool Down →

We may earn a commission if you sign up.

Six percent, down from a record twelve

EIA’s wording is direct: “battery electric vehicle sales were 6% of new light-duty vehicles sold, down from 10% in 3Q25.” The sales data behind the figure are estimates from the research firm Omdia, and EIA reports them quarterly, with charts running from the first quarter of 2016 through the third quarter of 2026. A quarter of this size is a measure of the whole new-vehicle market, covering cars, crossovers, SUVs and light trucks together.

The comparison point is not an ordinary quarter. Just before the incentives ended, battery-electric vehicles reached what EIA calls a record 12% of light-duty sales in September 2025, a monthly peak that buyers reached while credits were still available. The agency then reports that 2025 was the first year in which annual battery-electric sales and market share declined, and that the decline continued in 2026.

Across the first nine months of 2026, battery-electric vehicles were 6% of sales, compared with 8% in the same period of 2025. The nine-month figure matters because it smooths out the quarter-to-quarter noise: the third-quarter reading of 6% matches the year-to-date share, so the weak quarter reflects the whole year to date and not one bad stretch. Put another way, the share has spent 2026 roughly two percentage points below where it stood in the first nine months of 2025, and four points below the third quarter of that year.

The credits that ended on Sept. 30, 2025

Two federal programs expired on that date, according to EIA. One is the New Clean Vehicle Credit, which applied to qualifying passenger vehicles purchased for personal use, and the other is the Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit, which applied to vehicles bought for business use. EIA’s note says both “expired on September 30, 2025,” and the timing of the sales peak in that month is consistent with buyers pulling purchases forward ahead of the deadline.

That reading is an inference, not something the agency’s note proves on its own. EIA reports the sequence, a record share in September 2025 followed by a year of lower shares, and attributes the lower shares to the expiration. It does not separate the effect of the credits from other influences, such as prices or the supply of models.

Plug-in hybrids, which also draw grid power, moved the same direction on a much smaller base: EIA lists their share at 1.8% in the third quarter of 2025 and 0.7% in the third quarter of 2026.

Where the drop shows up most

The sharpest fall appears at the top of the market. EIA reports that luxury vehicles were 12% of total light-duty sales in the third quarter of 2026, and that battery-electric models were 12% of those luxury sales, down from 31% a year earlier. The luxury drop, 19 percentage points, dwarfs the four-point drop in the market as a whole, which is consistent with luxury buyers having been among the heaviest users of the credits.

EIA also puts the sales numbers in the context of the cars already on the road. Because annual sales are small relative to the stock of registered vehicles, electric vehicles are a much smaller share of the fleet than of sales: in 2024 they were 2% of registered U.S. light-duty vehicles, according to EIA’s Monthly Energy Review and its fleet data table. A single weak year of sales therefore moves the fleet share only slightly.

For readers new to the terminology, EIA separates types of electric vehicles by how they get their energy: battery-electric vehicles run only on stored electricity, while plug-in hybrids pair a battery with an engine.

The electricity angle is part of why the agency tracks the figure. EIA notes that battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles draw power from the grid, so their share of sales feeds directly into how much electricity transportation needs, while conventional hybrids burn liquid fuel and never plug in. A fall from 10% to 6% of new sales therefore slows the growth of that grid demand, though by how much depends on how many miles the vehicles added in earlier years continue to drive.

The figures to hold onto are EIA’s own, published in its Today in Energy article of Oct. 19, 2026: a 6% share in the third quarter of 2026, a record 12% in September 2025, and a lower reading in every comparison the agency draws. The open question is the next data point, because the agency’s quarterly series will show whether the share stabilizes near 6% or keeps sliding.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

Help yourself and the planet: Get The Cool Down →

We may earn a commission if you sign up.