Drought swallowed 59% of the Lower 48 in a single month

Drought covered 59.1% of the contiguous United States on September 1, up more than 10 percentage points from early August, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. That is the measured figure behind the claim that drought swallowed 59% of the Lower 48 in a single month; the agency’s August 2026 report records the footprint at the start of September, not as an undated condition.

The expansion came during a summer that NOAA also ranked as the hottest in the 132-year contiguous-U.S. record. Heat and drought often travel together, but the national report shows a more complicated map: Texas and Oklahoma were exceptionally dry, while Indiana and Ohio had their wettest Augusts on record. A percentage of the country in drought does not mean every state is short of rain.

The 59.1% figure is a dated national snapshot

NOAA’s 59.1% number applies to the contiguous United States on September 1. It rose by more than 10 percentage points from the start of August, a rapid national expansion in one reporting month. The number is useful because it captures the breadth of the drought footprint; it is not a prediction for every later week or a measure of one household’s water supply.

Drought classifications combine indicators such as precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow and longer-term conditions. They are different from a single hot day or a short dry spell. NOAA’s report places the September 1 figure alongside the August climate data, making clear that the rise followed a month of uneven rainfall and broad heat rather than one isolated event.

The language “Lower 48” and “contiguous United States” describes the same national geography for this report: the 48 connected states, excluding Alaska and Hawaiʻi. NOAA reports those states separately because their climate records and conditions differ sharply from the continental average.

Texas and Oklahoma received less than 30% of normal August rain

Texas and Oklahoma were among the places where the dry signal was most severe. NOAA says both received less than 30% of their average August precipitation. Texas recorded its third-driest August statewide and Oklahoma its fifth driest, with both states posting their lowest statewide August totals since 2000.

Across the contiguous United States, August precipitation averaged 2.30 inches, 0.32 inch below the twentieth-century average. That placed the month in the driest third of the 132-year record and made it the driest August nationally since 2000. California received only 0.20 inch during the entire summer, 26% of its normal June-through-August amount.

Those numbers sit beside a hot-season record: the national June-through-August average was 74.4°F, 3.0°F above the twentieth-century average. The report does not reduce drought to heat alone, but prolonged warmth can increase evaporation and make a rainfall deficit harder to reverse.

The NOAA report is the source for the 59.1% figure and the August rainfall comparisons. The U.S. Drought Monitor publishes the national drought map used for ongoing conditions, while NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System explains drought information and impacts. NOAA’s monthly-report archive preserves the national assessments; its Climate at a Glance tool provides historical climate comparisons.

Other states had too much rain, not too little

A national drought map can obscure the wet side of the same month. Indiana and Ohio received about twice their average August precipitation and set statewide records for the wettest August. Illinois, West Virginia and New Jersey each received more than 50% above their typical August totals.

The contrast continued across regions. NOAA reports below-average precipitation across portions of the West, Upper Midwest, southern Rockies, southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, while parts of the central tier from central California to the Mid-Atlantic received above-average precipitation. That split is why rainfall alone cannot be used to infer drought conditions for a different state.

Hawaiʻi, outside the 59.1% calculation, experienced one of the wettest periods in its record. Hurricane Lala helped produce its second-wettest August, and the January-through-August statewide total was the highest for that period. The national picture therefore includes both expanding continental drought and intense regional rainfall.

What the report establishes—and what it does not

NOAA establishes that 59.1% of the contiguous United States was in drought on September 1 and that the share had increased by more than 10 percentage points since early August. It also establishes the surrounding climate context: a record-hot summer, a nationally dry August, and major regional differences in rain.

It does not establish that conditions will remain at exactly 59.1% or that every community inside the drought footprint faces the same restrictions. Drought maps change as rain, heat and water conditions change. The durable finding is the size and speed of the August-to-September expansion, measured by the federal climate agency rather than inferred from one local forecast.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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