More than half the continental United States is locked in drought as of late May 2026, and federal forecasters say the dry conditions are expected to deepen before summer even begins. The preceding winter was the fifth-driest in 131 years of recordkeeping, the Southeast is experiencing its most extensive drought coverage since the U.S. Drought Monitor began tracking in 2000, and above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the country through at least June. Taken together, these conditions have set the stage for a wildfire season that could rival or exceed the worst in recent memory, with estimates suggesting up to 8 million acres could burn before the year is out.
That projection is not a number pulled from thin air. Between 2014 and 2023, wildfires burned an average of roughly 7.2 million acres per year across the United States, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center. In 2020, the worst recent fire year, the total exceeded 10 million acres. Given that current drought conditions are more widespread than they were heading into several of those peak years, fire analysts consider 8 million acres a realistic scenario, not a worst case.
A drought that built through winter and never let up
This crisis did not materialize overnight. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information documented that the winter of 2025-2026 ranked as the fifth-driest since national records began in 1895, with sharp precipitation deficits stretching from the southern Plains through the Gulf Coast and into the interior West. Snowpack in key western mountain ranges came in well below normal, depriving rivers and streams of the gradual meltwater that typically recharges soil moisture through spring.
By mid-March, drought covered a majority of the lower 48 states. NOAA’s spring outlook, released in March, forecast drought persistence and expansion across the West and parts of the Plains through June, with above-normal temperatures favored for much of the nation. The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal assessment identified the physical drivers: poor snow cover, atmospheric patterns steering precipitation away from already-parched regions, and soil moisture deficits too deep to recover without sustained, heavy rainfall that models did not predict.
Then April made things worse. NOAA’s monthly climate assessment confirmed that the Southeast’s drought coverage had surpassed anything previously recorded on the U.S. Drought Monitor, which has tracked conditions weekly since 2000. States from Georgia to the Carolinas saw reservoirs drop, agricultural losses mount, and wildfire risk climb in regions that do not always dominate fire-season headlines.
Why the fire risk is so acute right now
Drought alone does not cause wildfires, but it creates the conditions that allow them to start easily and spread fast. When soil moisture drops, grasses cure weeks ahead of schedule, turning green hillsides into fields of dry fuel. Larger woody fuels, the downed branches and standing dead timber in forests, lose moisture more slowly but are now well into deficit territory across large swaths of the West and southern Plains after months of below-normal precipitation.
Federal fire analysts fold these fuel conditions into wildfire potential outlooks alongside historical ignition patterns and weather forecasts. In 2026, the overlap between drought, dense vegetation, and expected heat is especially pronounced. Parts of the interior West, the southern Plains, and the Southeast all show elevated risk, a geographic spread that complicates resource allocation because crews and aircraft cannot be everywhere at once.
The timing adds another layer of concern. Wildfire seasons in the West have traditionally peaked in July and August, but the current drought trajectory means fire-ready conditions are arriving weeks early. Spring fires in the southern Plains and Southeast have already forced local fire departments to respond to brush fires and grassland burns that would be unusual this early in a normal year. If significant fire activity ramps up before July, it could stretch federal suppression resources thin before the most dangerous months even arrive.
What recent fire years tell us
The United States has experienced several punishing fire seasons in the past decade, and each offers a partial template for what 2026 could bring. In 2020, record-breaking fires in California, Oregon, and Colorado burned more than 10 million acres nationally, driven by extreme heat, drought, and powerful wind events. In 2021, the Dixie Fire in Northern California became the largest single fire in state history, burning nearly 1 million acres on its own. Both years featured drought conditions heading into summer, though neither saw the geographic breadth of drought that 2026 has produced.
The January 2026 fires in the Los Angeles area, including the Palisades and Eaton fires, also exposed vulnerabilities in suppression capacity and evacuation planning that remain relevant. Those fires burned through densely populated neighborhoods under extreme Santa Ana winds, raising questions about whether fire agencies have the staffing and equipment to handle simultaneous large incidents across multiple states. The answers to those questions will be tested again if the drought-driven fire season unfolds as forecasters expect.
What cannot be predicted
For all the strength of the drought signal, significant uncertainties remain. Lightning strike frequency, human-caused ignitions, and the timing of wind events can shift fire outcomes dramatically from week to week. A single dry thunderstorm over a parched national forest can spark dozens of fires in an afternoon. Conversely, a well-timed series of soaking rains in June could temporarily suppress fire danger in some regions, even if it does not erase the underlying drought.
Human behavior is another wildcard. In recent fire seasons, a large share of acreage burned has been tied to human-caused ignitions: power line failures, debris burning, equipment sparks, and campfires left unattended. Local burn restrictions, utility power shutoffs during high-wind events, and public awareness campaigns can all influence how many of those ignitions occur. Federal climate outlooks capture the background risk but cannot anticipate how carefully people will act during a hot, dry holiday weekend.
It is also worth noting that the phrase “worst spring drought in U.S. history” captures the severity of what federal data shows, particularly the record-setting Southeast drought coverage and the nationally extreme dry winter, but drought severity is measured across multiple dimensions: spatial coverage, intensity, duration, and affected population. The spring of 2026 is clearly among the most severe on the modern record. Whether it surpasses every historical drought episode, including those of the 1930s Dust Bowl era that predated the Drought Monitor, depends on which metric you prioritize.
What people in fire-prone areas should do now
For the tens of millions of Americans living in or near wildfire-prone landscapes, the practical message from federal forecasters is straightforward: prepare now, not in July. With drought expected to persist or worsen through at least June and above-normal heat in the forecast, the window to act is narrowing.
That means clearing defensible space around homes by removing dead vegetation, trimming branches away from structures, and cleaning gutters of dry leaves and pine needles. It means reviewing evacuation plans with every member of the household, knowing multiple routes out of the neighborhood, and keeping important documents and emergency supplies ready to grab. It means confirming that homeowner’s insurance covers wildfire damage and understanding what it does and does not include.
Local fire departments and emergency management offices publish region-specific guidance on vegetation management, equipment use during red flag conditions, and evacuation routes. Following that local advice while tracking federal drought and fire updates from the National Interagency Fire Center and NOAA offers the best way to stay ahead of a season that is already primed to be dangerous, even before the final toll can be known.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
