Rachel, a hurricane on Wednesday night, is forecast to curl back toward Baja and southern California as it weakens

Rachel was one mile per hour above hurricane strength at 8 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, Oct. 7, with 75 mph winds, down from 80 mph twelve hours earlier. The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory 44 and Discussion 44 expect it to keep weakening while it drifts west-northwest for about a day, then slow down and make a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week, back toward Baja California and southern California.

No watches or warnings are in effect, and the storm sat about 840 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja peninsula.

Advisory 44 Intensity: 75 mph and Sliding

At that 8 p.m. advisory the center was near 21.4 degrees north, 122.9 degrees west, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with a minimum central pressure of 982 millibars, up from 979 millibars at Advisory 42 at 8 a.m. Hurricane-force winds reached 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds 125 miles. The public advisory carries the forecast of gradual weakening over the next few days.

The discussion for Advisory 44, lowered the initial intensity to 65 knots on a Dvorak satellite estimate of 4.0 and said convection was weakening, while keeping the forecast near the high end of guidance because of the storm’s recent resilience. The forecast table steps down from 60 knots at 12 hours, about 69 mph, to 55 knots at 24 hours, 50 knots at 36 hours and 45 knots, roughly 52 mph, at 48 hours. The Saffir-Simpson scale starts hurricanes at 74 mph, so the 12-hour point already sits below that line.

The forecast has already shaved intensity once. Discussion 41 had Rachel at 50 knots by 48 hours and 40 knots by 60 hours, while the newer table holds it at 45 knots from 48 hours through 72 hours, a slower decline from a storm that has repeatedly outlasted its guidance.

The Northeastern Turn Under an Approaching Trough

Rachel is still moving away from the coast before it comes back: at Advisory 42 it was 775 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, and by Advisory 44 the gap had grown to 840 miles. Steering currents explain the loop. High pressure over the western United States has pushed Rachel west-northwest, and a trough approaching from the northwest is forecast to make it slow down before it turns sharply northeastward and accelerates. In the earlier Discussion 41, issued at 2 a.m. PDT Wednesday by forecasters Pierce and Gibbs, the track was drawn toward Baja California and southern California, with the system turning post-tropical near 29.2 degrees north, 117.5 degrees west at 96 hours.

Discussion 44 moved the timeline and the geometry. Its 72-hour point is near 28.0 degrees north, 118.2 degrees west at 45 knots, and its 96-hour point reaches 36.4 degrees north, 113.0 degrees west at 35 knots, which is in the interior Southwest and well north of the peninsula, even though the text describes the storm becoming post-tropical as it moves inland over Baja California by 96 hours. The bulletin does not reconcile the two, and the coordinates and the prose agree only on the direction of travel: northeast, toward land.

Swell and Rip Currents Along the Southern California Coast

The first effect on land is expected to be water. Advisory 44 says swells generated by Rachel will build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. The National Weather Service office in San Diego had a coastal flood advisory and a beach hazards statement listed on its page when it was read, though that page, last updated Oct. 6 and focused on extreme heat, did not yet mention Rachel.

NWS rip current guidance notes that rip currents often form on calm, sunny days, so a clear sky over a beach does not signal safe water, and it points swimmers toward lifeguarded beaches. A distant hurricane can send that kind of swell across open water for days before any rain arrives.

Remnant Moisture in the Southwestern U.S.

The wording on rain and wind is conditional. Discussion 41 said Rachel’s remnants could still contribute to heavy rain and gusty winds across the Southwestern United States, and Discussion 44 repeats that tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain could still accompany what remains of the circulation even after the convection erodes. The same Pacific outlook tracks a second system: NHC’s outlook gave EP92, a broad low off southern Mexico, a 90 percent chance of forming within 48 hours, with heavy rain forecast for parts of southern and southwestern Mexico.

The final row of the Discussion 44 table reads dissipated at 120 hours, valid 0000 UTC on Oct. 13.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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