Colorado’s high country is entering what should be the heart of ski season with a snowpack that looks more like late autumn than midwinter. Statewide snowpack levels are sitting at just 35% of normal, the lowest point in nearly 40 years of modern SNOTEL records, and that deficit is already rippling through ski operations, water planning and avalanche safety. A potent Pacific storm now lining up to hit the Rockies offers a shot of short term relief, but the real story is how this burst of snow fits into a season that is increasingly defined by scarcity and volatility rather than steady accumulation.
The coming system is not a silver bullet, yet it is a crucial test of whether the atmosphere can still deliver meaningful catch up events in a warming climate. Forecast models suggest a classic “weather rollercoaster” pattern, with a strong upper level disturbance crossing the West and wringing out heavy snow over favored ranges while leaving others with only modest gains. How that snow is distributed, and how the wind reshapes it once it lands, will determine everything from which resorts can salvage late season bookings to which backcountry basins become safer or more treacherous in the weeks ahead.
Record-low snowpack sets the stakes
To understand why this storm matters, it helps to start with the numbers. Snowpack levels across Colorado are currently 35% of normal, a stark figure in a state where the annual average snowfall total is 209 inches and mountain snow functions as the primary water reservoir for the entire region. Hydrologists who track the statewide picture through SNOTEL sensors say that if you average things out statewide, it is the lowest the state has been at this point in the snow season in nearly 40 years, a benchmark that turns what might feel like a slow start into a genuinely historic deficit. For a place that brands itself around winter, from the Front Range to the Western Slope, that shortfall is not just a weather curiosity, it is a structural risk.
The impacts are already visible on the ground. Resorts that rely on natural snow to open advanced terrain are leaning harder on snowmaking, which is both energy intensive and limited by temperature swings that have been common across Colorado this winter. Water managers, meanwhile, are looking beyond the ski season and worrying about how a thin snowpack will translate into lower spring runoff, tighter irrigation allocations and more stress on already overdrawn river systems. When snow is this scarce this late, every incoming storm becomes less about powder days and more about whether the state can claw back enough moisture to avoid compounding drought through the rest of the year.
A Pacific system offers a narrow window of relief
Against that backdrop, the incoming storm looks like a lifeline, even if it is a temporary one. Forecasters describe a big weather maker this week, an upper level system currently over the Pacific that will be progressing east and intensifying as it travels overhead, setting up a classic upslope pattern for the central and northern mountains. Earlier this winter, a similar setup produced a corridor of intense snowfall along a key highway stretch through the high country, where up to 27 inches piled up while lower elevations saw only light accumulations and bitter cold. That kind of banded event is exactly what resorts and road crews are preparing for again, with the understanding that a few dozen miles could separate jackpot totals from another underwhelming dusting.
In DENVER, meteorologists have been blunt that As Colorado’s mountains face record-low snowpack, some relief could arrive later this week, but they are also cautioning that the storm will not erase the season’s deficit in one shot. The Weather Impact Team expects the heaviest snow to favor familiar winners along the Continental Divide, with lighter but still meaningful totals for some southern ranges that have lagged even further behind. Regional forecasts echo the idea of a weather rollercoaster for the REST of THE WEEK, with Our big weather maker over the Pacific likely to bring sharp swings in temperature and visibility as it moves through. For skiers and drivers alike, that means planning for rapidly changing conditions rather than a steady, gentle refresh.
Tourism, resorts and the fragile winter economy
The economic stakes of this storm are as real as the meteorological ones. Mountain towns depend on a reliable snowpack to fill hotel rooms, lift lines and restaurant tables, and a season that starts with bare slopes can spook visitors into booking trips elsewhere. Earlier this year, coverage of a final January storm highlighted how even a modest round of light flakes was enough to lure locals like Caleb Wood out on a lunch break to hop on his bike and head to the slopes on Monday, a reminder that fresh snow is still the most effective marketing tool resorts have. Photographs by John Russell for the Steamboat Pilot captured thin but rideable coverage, underscoring how close some areas are to the margin between “open” and “worth the trip.”
Resort operators are watching this week’s forecast with a spreadsheet in one hand and a trail map in the other. A storm that drops one to two feet on upper mountain terrain could unlock key expert runs, justify extending operating hours and shore up late season bookings that have been wobbling. In contrast, another near miss would reinforce a pattern that has already seen Colorado’s mountains endure a dry spell in the middle of January, with Many northern and central areas missing out on meaningful refreshes. The broader tourism economy, from ski schools to gear shops, is effectively betting that this incoming system will be strong enough to reset the narrative from “lost winter” to “late bloomer,” even if the underlying snowpack numbers remain historically low.
Water supply and summer consequences
Beyond the lift-served slopes, the thin snowpack is a slow moving water story that will play out long after the last chair stops spinning. Snowpack in the high country is the starting point for municipal drinking water, agricultural irrigation and ecological flows that sustain everything from trout streams to riparian forests. When Snowpack levels across Colorado are pegged at 35% of normal and the annual average snowfall total of 209 inches looks out of reach, it signals a likely shortfall in the natural “savings account” that the state draws down through spring and summer. Water planners are already modeling scenarios where reservoirs see smaller inflows, forcing tougher tradeoffs between urban demand and downstream obligations.
Experts who monitor SNOTEL data have warned that if you average things out statewide, it is the lowest the state has been at this point in the snow season in nearly 40 years, and that kind of deficit rarely disappears overnight. Even a robust February storm pattern would need to be followed by a productive March and April to bring the snowpack back toward normal, and there is no guarantee the atmosphere will cooperate. The risk is that a few headline grabbing storms create a sense of complacency while the cumulative totals remain far below what rivers and reservoirs require. In that sense, the coming system is less a cure and more a diagnostic: if it underperforms, it will be a strong signal that communities should brace for tighter watering restrictions, stressed agriculture and elevated wildfire risk later in the year.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
