PJM expects a record winter peak near 147,500 megawatts as data centers pull more power

PJM Interconnection, the grid operator for a 13-state region stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Midwest, is planning for winter demand of about 147,500 megawatts in 2026-27. If that forecast is reached, it would top the all-time winter record of 143,700 megawatts, set on Jan. 22, 2025. Steady growth from data centers and other very large customers is the main reason the forecast keeps rising.

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The forecast comes from PJM’s winter outlook, released on Nov. 5, and it arrives with a candid warning from the operator’s own system-operations chief about how thin the margins have become. Michael Bryson, the senior vice president of operations, said the goal is to manage the system proactively so it performs at a high level when consumers need energy the most.

In the outlook, PJM puts expected peak demand at about 147,500 megawatts, a new winter record if it is reached, with roughly 3,200 megawatts of average exports to neighboring systems counted separately. Forecast winter peak demand has risen about 7,500 megawatts, or 5%, since 2022. The operator attributes the steady annual increases largely to new load, especially data centers and other large customers, though the release gives no separate data center figure. Against that demand, PJM counts 182,426 megawatts of operational capacity for the season.

Stress case at 152,200 megawatts and the outage arithmetic

PJM also modeled an extreme-cold scenario in which customer demand reaches 152,200 megawatts while generator availability falls. The operator says it can keep the system reliable in that case with Pre-Emergency and Emergency Demand Response, the programs that pay customers to cut use when the grid is tight. Subtracting the stress-case demand from operational capacity leaves a cushion of roughly 30,000 megawatts, a number worth setting beside the roughly 46,000 megawatts of generator outages the release cites from Winter Storm Elliott as an example of how fast supply can vanish.

David Souder, PJM’s executive director of system operations, said generator performance is “more critical than ever” as the system runs with “less room for error.” The operator is backing that with reliability checks: site visits by ReliabilityFirst, the regional reliability entity, are expected to reach 30 to 35 this year, up from fewer than 10 before 2023, and a similar SERC program starts for the rest of the footprint.

January’s eight-day run above 130,000 megawatts

Last winter supplied a live test. The American Public Power Association’s summary of the outlook notes that hourly winter peaks topped 130,000 megawatts for eight straight days, from Jan. 26 to Feb. 2, 2026. PJM’s own forecast during that stretch, posted on Jan. 27, called for a peak of 148,000 megawatts on Jan. 30, above the standing record. Yet the November outlook still lists the January 2025 mark of 143,700 megawatts as the all-time winter peak, so the record survived the cold snap. The outlook treats Winter Storm Fern, the January 2026 event, and the earlier Elliott outages as the two reference points for what a severe cold stretch does to supply.

On Jan. 25, PJM had already called Pre-Emergency Demand Response for the BGE, Dominion and Pepco areas, easing local transmission limits and saving generator run-time for later in the week. A day earlier, PJM had asked the Department of Energy for relief, and on Jan. 25 the department allowed PJM to run generating units at maximum output regardless of air-quality permit limits or fuel shortages, in an order effective through Jan. 31. The November outlook says PJM will again seek emergency orders that let designated generators exceed permitted emission levels during system emergencies. The outlook also names the BGE, Pepco and Dominion zones as transmission-constrained areas, where local limits can bite even when regional supply looks adequate.

A backup-generator authority PJM has never used

The outlook says PJM holds Department of Energy authority to direct data centers and other large customers to run on backup generators as a last resort, and that the authority has never been exercised. Utility Dive reported that the order, numbered 202-26-06, was issued on Jan. 26, 2026, days after Energy Secretary Chris Wright described it as a way to avoid blackouts during Winter Storm Fern. PJM would turn to it only after declaring an Energy Emergency Alert 2 and tapping every generating resource and emergency demand response. Capstone analysts quoted in the same report argued that operators have no dispatch mechanism for the task and estimated that only about 9 gigawatts of backup generation might be available, against the 35 gigawatts Wright cited nationwide.

The longer-run squeeze sits in the capacity market. PJM’s May 2026 market-design paper reported that the 2027/2028 auction cleared 134,478 megawatts of capacity and landed at a 14.4% installed reserve margin against a 20% target, a physical shortfall of about 6,517 megawatts. The paper attributed the strain to data center and electrification load growing faster than at any time in almost 50 years, and to gas turbine and transformer shortages that have roughly doubled development timelines to about four years. Cold weather will decide whether the 147,500-megawatt forecast is reached, but a 14.4% margin against a 20% target says supply has little spare room either way.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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