Duke Energy is sticking with a $103 billion plan centered on data-center growth

Duke Energy is holding to a $103 billion capital plan built around data-center demand, and its chief executive says Nov. 3’s election results changed nothing about that focus. Harry Sideris told analysts on the utility’s third-quarter earnings call that Duke has worked with both parties and sees no shift in its ability to work with newly elected officials.

Help yourself and the planet: The Cool Down makes it easy to help yourself while helping the planet, with smart, simple changes to save more and waste less in your everyday life.

Get The Cool Down →

We may earn a commission if you sign up.

Voters in several places backed candidates who promised to rein in data centers, which made the call a test of whether a utility betting on them would hedge. It did not. The chief financial officer, Brian Savoy, said the capital plan is moving up in a sizable way, and spending is already running near $1.5 billion a month with a step up to about $2 billion monthly starting next year.

Duke’s $103 billion, line by line

Utility Dive reported that Duke plans 16 gigawatts of new generation and storage by 2031, including 4.8 gigawatts of batteries and more than 10 gigawatts of gas. About 5 gigawatts of the gas fleet is under construction in North Carolina and Indiana, and turbines and gas supply for the new projects are already under contract. Sideris pointed to the company’s resource plan as making clear the role natural gas will play in the near term for reliability.

Paying for it requires new shares. Duke plans to issue $10 billion of equity and has secured about one-third of that so far. Third-quarter electric income rose $159 million from a year earlier, helped by rate increases, a 2% rise in retail sales and warm weather. Duke released those results on Nov. 5, according to its earnings announcement notice, ahead of a 10 a.m. Eastern investor presentation. The monthly spending rates are worth translating. About $1.5 billion a month comes to roughly $18 billion a year, and $2 billion a month comes to about $24 billion, so the step-up Savoy described adds around $6 billion of annual outlays on top of a plan that Utility Dive describes as the centerpiece of the company’s growth story.

Raising $10 billion of equity, with about a third secured, means roughly $3 billion or more is still to be sold into a market that has just watched voters in several places side with candidates promising to limit data centers. Duke’s argument, as Sideris presented it, is that signed contracts and slow, steady negotiations matter more than campaign rhetoric, and Utility Dive treats the call as a statement that the plan is intact rather than a revision.

The 15.4-gigawatt large-load pipeline

The data-center story rests on the large-load pipeline, which stands at 15.4 gigawatts and has barely moved since the first quarter of 2026. Of that, 7.8 gigawatts is covered by signed electric service agreements, up 200 megawatts from the first quarter, and the other 7.6 gigawatts is still being worked. Sideris called progress slower but steady, saying the work is going very well but taking longer because of complexity.

The pace matters because the capital plan assumes the load shows up. Tariffs for large customers are pending in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana and Ohio, and company documents say a North Carolina settlement could lead to approval of one by mid-November. A tariff is the instrument that decides who pays if a data center never draws what it promised, which is why regulators in each state are reading it closely.

Sideris said Duke would keep its focus and would continue working with the state officials who took office after the vote. The comment reads as a message to regulators more than to Wall Street, because the large-load tariffs now pending in four states are the mechanism that decides whether data-center customers or ordinary households carry the cost of new generation. Duke’s electric utilities serve 8.7 million customers and own 55,700 megawatts of capacity.

Duke says the turbines and fuel supply for its new gas projects are already under contract, which removes one common source of schedule risk. The 16 gigawatts planned by 2031 amount to roughly 29% more than the 55,700 megawatts the company owns today, a measure of how much growth the plan assumes.

Regulators, rate cases and the rejected gas unit

Not every gas project clears. In September, North Carolina regulators denied a certificate for a 255-megawatt unit, citing a staggering cost and uncertain need. Sideris still considers it a good, low-cost project. Duke is also exploring pairing a 2.8-gigawatt North Carolina gas project with a liquefied natural gas storage facility to add supply flexibility and limit exposure to price swings.

Customers feel the plan through rates. Settlements in North Carolina would raise rates by $496 million at Duke Energy Carolinas and $338 million at Duke Energy Progress over two years, Ohio has a $90 million request with hearings set for January, and Indiana will file a multi-year plan later this year. Florida rates are expected to stay flat in 2027. The details of the call are on the earnings call page.

What nobody has settled is the unsigned half of the pipeline. The 7.6 gigawatts still in negotiation, which Sideris called a dynamic environment, is nearly as large as the 7.8 gigawatts under contract, and the $103 billion is sized for a build-out that depends on both.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

Help yourself and the planet: Get The Cool Down →

We may earn a commission if you sign up.