Homes heated with electricity are looking at a 4% rise this winter, while gas heaters pay 9% less

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the more than 40% of American homes that heat with electricity to see bills rise 4% on average this winter, while homes that heat with natural gas are forecast to spend 9% less. The split comes from fuel prices rather than the thermostat: electricity is getting more expensive, and gas is getting cheaper.

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Which side of that line a household falls on may matter more this year than the weather.

The four heating fuels and their forecasts

EIA’s Today in Energy analysis, published October 7, 2026, covers November through March. It expects natural gas and propane, which together heat about half of U.S. homes, to cost less, and electricity and heating oil to cost more. Propane spending is forecast to fall 3%. Heating oil is the outlier, with spending up 21% on prices that EIA expects to average 34% higher than last winter.

Heating oil reaches only about 3% of homes, mostly in the Northeast, so the largest percentage jump lands on the smallest group. Electricity matters in the other direction: the 4% rise hits more than 40% of homes, which makes it the biggest increase by number of households.

What the averages look like in dollars

The scale of each group matters before the dollars do. EIA’s outlook counts about 61 million U.S. households heating mainly with natural gas, about 57.9 million with electricity, about 6.4 million with propane and about 4.1 million with heating oil in 2026, with electric heat concentrated in the South.

The Today in Energy page gives percentages only. EIA’s companion winter fuels outlook, built on the October Short-Term Energy Outlook, supplies the dollar averages per household for the season.

Electricity comes to $1,196, up 4%, on 6,562 kilowatt-hours at 18.23 cents each. Natural gas averages $640, down 9%, at $13.44 per thousand cubic feet. Propane averages $1,246, down 3%, and heating oil $2,115, up 21%, at $5.26 a gallon.

The gas decline reflects wholesale prices working through retail rates, which can lag by a year or more because of utility rate-setting. Those are nominal dollars. EIA assumes about 2% inflation, so a rise of roughly 2% or less is largely inflationary rather than a real increase.

The dollar figures cannot be read as a ranking of which fuel is cheapest. EIA cautions that spending differences across fuels do not necessarily predict what an individual household would save by switching, because home size, efficiency and climate vary, and the figures cover every use of that fuel, not just space heating.

A colder West and a warmer Northeast reshape the map

EIA expects national temperatures to be similar to last winter, but the regions diverge. The Northeast is forecast to be 12% warmer by heating degree days after a cold prior winter, while the West is forecast to be 25% colder after an unusually warm one.

That shows up in the bills. Western electricity spending is forecast to rise 9% on higher consumption, the largest regional increase, and Western natural gas spending to rise 7% even as gas prices fall, because colder weather offsets cheaper fuel. In the Northeast, electricity spending is forecast to fall 3%, and propane spending 15%.

The Midwest and South stay close to last winter, with heating degree days down 2% and up 1%, and the national total is unchanged at 3,155. In other words, the 4% electricity increase and the 9% gas decrease are mostly price effects, with the regional swings layered on top.

Natural gas drops by 14% in the Northeast, 10% in the Midwest and 15% in the South in the same forecast.

Distillate shortages push heating oil higher, and what could change the numbers

EIA ties the heating oil jump to the global market. Reduced worldwide refining has raised international distillate prices, U.S. distillate exports rose 20% year over year through the first seven months of 2026, and U.S. stocks are low heading into winter, with inventories expected to be about 11% below the five-year average in the fourth quarter.

The agency’s October 6 press release adds that East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below the seasonal average in September.

The forecast is a base case. EIA runs side cases that make every region 10% colder or warmer, and notes that NOAA has forecast a strong El Niño that could push temperatures well away from its assumptions. Updates come with each Short-Term Energy Outlook, with the next one scheduled for November 10, 2026, and the full October edition is archived as a PDF.

The open question for the Northeast is whether milder weather can hold down the oil bills as much as EIA expects, given that the agency’s own forecast has the monthly price falling only from $5.79 a gallon in November to $4.84 in March.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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