Highs could reach the 80s in Southern California, the Desert Southwest and Florida early this week

Warmth into the 80s was on the map for three corners of the country in the Weather Prediction Center’s short-range discussion, issued at 2:59 a.m. EST on Nov. 9 and valid through 12Z on Wednesday, Nov. 11. Forecasters called for highs “into the 80s for southern California/the Desert Southwest as well as Florida.” The span runs from Nov. 9 to Nov. 11, so the heat covers the early days of the week.

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Those readings land a few days before a sharp change elsewhere. Chilly nights were forecast across the Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast on the same Nov. 9 morning, with Frost Advisories already posted, and a Canadian air mass was lined up to spread across the eastern states beginning late that Friday. For much of the country the first half of November is therefore splitting into a mild coast-to-coast fringe and a cold interior.

Short-range forecast for Nov. 9 to Nov. 11

The Weather Prediction Center keeps the 80s call inside its short-range discussion rather than a warning product, which means it describes the broad pattern instead of setting a threshold for any one city. The sentence names regions, not stations: southern California and the Desert Southwest on one side, Florida on the other, with no individual high temperature attached.

Both regions sit well above what mid-November usually brings. The same center’s longer-range discussion, posted early on Nov. 9 and covering Nov. 12 through 16, pointed to highs 10 to 20 degrees above mid-November averages across the central and northern Plains, so the unusual warmth was not confined to the places where the 80s were forecast.

A warm, dry West ahead of a colder East

In a late-week outlook by Kevin Fitzgerald, the FOX Forecast Center said the West would run warmer and drier while the East cooled, and that cities from California to the Great Basin and the desert Southwest could be 10 to 20 degrees above average. The same piece expected the Canadian cold to reach the Gulf Coast and Florida by Sunday, which would end the Florida warmth that the Prediction Center sees in the short range.

The cold side was already visible. FOX Weather’s report from Nov. 7 counted more than 19 million Americans under Frost Advisories or Freeze Warnings across the Ohio Valley, the Mid-South and parts of Tennessee and northern Alabama, and noted that nearly 50 weather stations had recorded their warmest start to autumn on record before the chill arrived.

The eastern half of the country looked very different. The FOX Forecast Center expected highs in the 30s or 40s across the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley once the cold arrived, with lows dropping into the 20s, and estimated that by Saturday more than 160 million Americans would be living with below-average temperatures. Against numbers like those, an 80-degree afternoon in southern California or Florida carries a temperature gap of 40 degrees or more across the map.

Southern California’s wet fall before the warm-up

The warm spell follows an unusually wet stretch. The U.S. Drought Monitor’s summary for Nov. 3, from the federal and university drought specialists who compile it, said a low-pressure system over Halloween weekend soaked southern California and the Desert Southwest, leaving two-month rainfall totals at two to four times normal or higher in much of that region.

The authors added that short-term drought had ended for the Southwest and Great Basin, though long-term drought lingers in places, and they pointed to a possible atmospheric river on the West Coast from mid-November with above-normal precipitation favored for California and the Pacific Northwest. A run of 80s between those two wet episodes would be a brief dry window rather than a change of regime.

Florida’s share of the warmth comes without a named city or feature attached. The Prediction Center’s short-range text mentions chilly nights for the Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast, and FOX Weather’s outlook expected the cold to reach Florida only by Sunday, so the peninsula sits at the far end of the cold air’s route and is the last place to feel it. Until a front arrives, the forecast leaves Florida on the warm side of the divide even as Frost Advisories were posted farther north.

Canadian cold after Wednesday

The Prediction Center’s short-range product expires at 12Z on Nov. 11, and the next discussions will show whether the 80s hold into the weekend. For Nov. 15 to 19, the period after the cold front reaches the Gulf, forecasters turn to the federal 6 to 10 day outlook refreshed on Nov. 9.

The open question is Florida. FOX Weather expects the Canadian cold to arrive there by Sunday, but nothing in the Prediction Center’s text says how far the 80s will retreat before it does, and the Nov. 9 discussions do not name a Florida city.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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