The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 7 p.m. EST on Nov. 9 says tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of America during the next seven days. The text, signed by forecaster Kelly, runs a single sentence and outlines no areas to watch. The Atlantic season officially runs through Nov. 30, which leaves about three weeks on the calendar after the quiet spell.
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A blank outlook this late is not unusual in itself, and it fits the way forecasters had been describing the basin since October. The center’s earlier issuance at 1 a.m. EST on Nov. 9 carried the same one-line conclusion, so the evening update brought no change in the message. The outlook covers a rolling seven-day window, which for the Nov. 9 products extends to roughly Nov. 16.
The Nov. 9 outlook and what it leaves unmarked
The text outlook from the hurricane center covers the whole Atlantic basin, and the graphical seven-day outlook page showed the same thing in map form: no disturbances, no highlighted areas, no formation chances to report. A forecaster signs each text product, and the Nov. 9 evening version carries the name Kelly.
Elsewhere the picture was not entirely empty. The same outlook page listed one disturbance in the Eastern Pacific, designated EP96, a small low pressure area more than 100 miles off Nicaragua and El Salvador with a 20 percent chance of formation over seven days, and the center expected conditions to become less favorable for it. The Central Pacific, like the Atlantic, had nothing to flag. The hurricane center’s main page reflected the same quiet on Nov. 9, stating that there were no tropical cyclones in either the Atlantic or the Eastern Pacific at that time and listing a morning Atlantic outlook issued at 7 a.m. EST ahead of the evening update.
November climatology and the late-season stragglers
The center’s climatology page gives the Atlantic season as June 1 to Nov. 30 and notes that activity sometimes occurs before and after those dates. Over 1991 to 2020 the 14th named system of an average year formed around Nov. 19 and the seventh hurricane around Nov. 15, though individual seasons vary considerably from those averages.
Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross had already framed the odds in a column published on Oct. 23. He described a “wintertime look” to the pattern, a fast, wavy jet stream that blocks development across the Gulf, the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, and wrote that “the odds favor the Atlantic season being over.”
Norcross added a caveat that matters in November. Non-tropical storms can sometimes stall, borrow warmth from the ocean and take on tropical features, as Hurricane Nicole did in November 2022, and the water stays warm enough for that into the month. He wrote that “there is no sign of that in the long-range computer forecasts,” and the Nov. 9 outlook agrees for at least a week.
The phrase “not expected” is a forecast, not a guarantee. Ocean water in the Atlantic stays warm enough in November for an ordinary front or upper-level low to stall and pick up tropical traits, and the center’s outlook is the product built to flag that possibility days ahead. In practice a blank outlook means forecasters see no such candidate in the computer guidance and no disturbance in the satellite imagery for the coming seven days.
Pacific storms still getting the attention
The energy that is missing in the Atlantic has been plentiful on the other side of Central America. In the same column Norcross counted Hurricane Vance as the 13th hurricane of the Pacific basin’s season and said the storm was forecast to weaken before reaching the coast near Manzanillo, Mexico. Its remnants later soaked parts of western and central Texas, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s Nov. 5 summary, which credited the rain with a one-category drought improvement there.
Norcross also noted that Typhoon Champi, with sustained winds of 120 mph, tied Super Typhoon Sinlaku as the strongest storm in any basin in 2026, and that Vance was forecast to become the Pacific’s 10th Category 3 or stronger storm of the year. The contrast with the Atlantic pattern he described, a jet stream that is fast and wavy, is stark, and he expected the Pacific to keep producing storms even if the Atlantic season is over.
Atlantic quiet and Pacific vigor can coexist in the same month. For Gulf and East Coast readers, the practical result of the outlook is a window of at least seven days with nothing the center is tracking, even as the center keeps an eye on EP96 in the Eastern Pacific.
Norcross left one door open: the chance of a late surprise remains “as long as the ocean water is warm enough,” and the season has until Nov. 30 to produce one. The next outlook from the center, due before the seven-day window closes, will show whether the blank map holds through the middle of the month.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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