Coastal communities along the Pacific rim face a sharply different storm calculus than their Atlantic counterparts this year. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has assigned a 70% probability that the 2026 eastern North Pacific hurricane season will be above normal, while the Central Pacific Hurricane Center independently reached the same 70% figure for its basin. The Atlantic outlook, by contrast, places a 55% probability on below-normal activity. That split, driven by warm ocean temperatures and shifting climate signals, has direct consequences for emergency planners, insurers, and millions of residents from Baja California to Hawaii.
What is verified so far
The strongest confirmed data point is the official eastern Pacific forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center, which cites large-scale ocean and atmospheric factors as the primary drivers behind the 70% above-normal probability. Sea surface temperature patterns figure prominently in that reasoning. The agency’s forecast covers the standard June-through-November season and provides probabilistic ranges for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, though the exact count ranges are published only on the outlook page itself.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center, based in Honolulu, issued a parallel assessment for the waters between 140 degrees West and the International Date Line. That central basin outlook also gives a 70% chance of above-normal activity, reinforcing the signal that conditions across the broader Pacific favor storm development. The agency explicitly notes that the outlook is not a landfall forecast but a basin-wide activity estimate.
On the Atlantic side, the Climate Prediction Center’s separate seasonal guidance assigns a 55% probability to below-normal activity. That figure represents the single likeliest outcome category for the basin, with near-normal and above-normal probabilities splitting the remainder. The contrast is stark: one ocean basin tilts heavily toward heightened risk while the other leans toward relative calm. The probabilities are summarized in NOAA’s Atlantic outlook, which uses the same categorical framework as the Pacific forecasts.
Connecting the three basin outlooks is a set of ENSO probability tables published by the Climate Prediction Center. The May 2026 tables show seasonal odds for El Niño, neutral, and La Niña conditions across overlapping three-month windows. Neutral-to-La Niña conditions generally suppress Atlantic hurricane development by increasing vertical wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, while the same pattern tends to reduce shear in the eastern Pacific, letting storms organize more easily. This asymmetry is one of the main reasons a single climate driver can simultaneously dampen activity in one ocean and energize it in another.
The ocean temperature record behind these forecasts rests on NOAA’s Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature dataset, known as ERSSTv5. Maintained by the National Centers for Environmental Information, the dataset draws on ship observations, buoy readings, and other inputs collected through the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. A peer-reviewed methods paper published in the Journal of Climate in 2017 describes how ERSSTv5 was constructed and validated, giving researchers and forecasters a consistent baseline for tracking long-term warming trends and seasonal anomalies.
What remains uncertain
Several gaps separate the headline probabilities from a full picture of what the season will look like. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook pages list probability categories but do not publish the detailed model inputs or basin-specific SST anomaly calculations that fed the final numbers. Readers can see the result of the analysis without tracing each variable back to its source grid, leaving the internal weighting of different models and indicators somewhat opaque to the public.
The ENSO probability tables quantify seasonal odds for each phase yet contain no direct forecaster statements explaining exactly how those odds translate into Atlantic suppression or Pacific enhancement. The causal chain is well established in climate science literature, but the official outlook documents stop short of spelling out the step-by-step reasoning in public-facing text. That means the connection between ENSO state and basin-level storm counts involves some interpretive inference, even if the inference is widely supported by past seasons and peer-reviewed studies.
Seasonal outlooks also carry an inherent limitation: they describe the expected character of an entire six-month period, not the timing, intensity, or landfall risk of individual storms. A 70% above-normal probability does not guarantee that any single hurricane will strike a populated coastline. Conversely, a below-normal Atlantic season can still produce a devastating landfalling storm. Emergency managers treat these outlooks as planning signals rather than deterministic forecasts, using them to shape staffing, training, and stockpiling decisions rather than to predict specific disasters.
One open question is whether the warm SST anomalies currently observed in the eastern Pacific will persist through the peak months of August and September. Ocean temperatures can shift in response to subsurface processes and atmospheric feedbacks that are difficult to predict more than a few weeks ahead. If the warm pool weakens or migrates, the above-normal probability could prove too aggressive, and the realized storm count might end up closer to the historical average despite the preseason signal.
Another uncertainty involves how regional wind patterns will evolve as the season progresses. Vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, and the position of the subtropical highs can all modulate storm formation and track. The seasonal outlooks implicitly account for these factors through ensemble modeling and historical analogs, but they cannot anticipate shorter-term atmospheric quirks, such as a persistent mid-season trough that steers storms away from land or a Saharan dust outbreak that temporarily suppresses convection in the Atlantic.
How to read the evidence
The strongest evidence in this story comes from three primary NOAA products: the eastern North Pacific outlook, the central Pacific outlook, and the Atlantic outlook. Each is an official government forecast issued by agencies with statutory responsibility for hurricane warnings and seasonal guidance. These are not opinion pieces or experimental model runs from private weather firms; they carry institutional weight and form the basis for federal and state resource allocation decisions ahead of the season.
The ERSSTv5 dataset and its accompanying journal paper provide methodological backing for the sea surface temperature anomalies referenced in the outlooks. Because the dataset is homogenized and quality-controlled, it allows forecasters to compare current ocean conditions with decades of historical data on a like-for-like basis. That consistency is crucial when agencies state that a given region of the Pacific is significantly warmer than average or that Atlantic waters are cooler than typical for the time of year.
For readers trying to interpret these forecasts, the key is to balance the probabilistic language with practical preparation. A 70% chance of above-normal activity in the eastern and central Pacific does not mean communities can relax if the first half of the season is quiet; probabilities apply over the entire June-to-November window, and activity often clusters in bursts. Similarly, the 55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic season should not be taken as a signal to delay or scale back coastal resilience projects, because a single landfalling hurricane can dominate the impacts of an otherwise subdued year.
Emergency managers and local officials typically use seasonal outlooks to justify early readiness steps: updating evacuation plans, checking communications systems, and coordinating with hospitals and utilities. Households and businesses can take a similar cue by reviewing insurance coverage, assembling disaster kits, and understanding local evacuation zones before any storm is on the map. The Pacific–Atlantic contrast in this year’s forecasts may shape where national resources and attention are focused, but it does not eliminate risk in any one basin.
Ultimately, the verified pieces of information-the official NOAA probabilities, the documented ENSO odds, and the long-term SST records-support a clear narrative: the Pacific basins are primed for an active season, while the Atlantic leans quieter than usual. The unresolved questions lie in the details that matter most on the ground: which storms will form, where they will track, and whether they will intersect with vulnerable coastlines. Until those answers emerge in real time, the safest course for communities on both oceans is to treat the outlooks as an early warning to prepare, not a guarantee of safety or disaster.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
