In parts of the world, climate change is no longer an abstract forecast but a logistical nightmare that city planners must cost out in concrete and steel. Few places embody that shift more starkly than Jakarta and Tehran, where experts now speak openly about relocating national capitals as water either overwhelms or disappears. The emerging pattern is brutal in its simplicity: when the hydrology fails, politics and people are forced to move.
What is unfolding in these cities is not a series of isolated emergencies but a preview of a new urban era in which geography, infrastructure and inequality collide. The decisions Jakarta and Tehran take in the next decade will help determine whether capital flight becomes a managed transition or a chaotic wave of internal climate migration that deepens global divides.
Jakarta: when a capital city starts to sink
Jakarta has long been described as a city losing its race against the sea, but the language from specialists has sharpened into a blunt warning that people living there will eventually have to leave. The Indonesian capital, officially the Special Capital Region, is subsiding rapidly because of intensive groundwater extraction layered on top of global sea level rise. Hydrologists now frame the choice in stark terms: either accept repeated flooding that cripples transport, housing and industry, or engineer an exit strategy for millions of residents.
That exit strategy is already under way. Indonesia is building a new administrative capital, Nusantara, on the island of Borneo, a move that effectively concedes that parts of Jakarta may not be defensible in the long term. The relocation has been described as the largest-scale climate-linked capital move yet, with Jakarta, Home to about 10 million people in the city proper and many more in the wider metro area, facing internal displacement on a vast scale if coastal defenses fail. Analysts warn that even with a giant seawall and drainage upgrades, low-lying neighborhoods will continue to face repeated flooding risks that make daily life untenable for poorer residents who cannot easily move.
The Indonesian government has pitched Nusantara as a modern, green alternative rather than a panic retreat. Officials have stressed that Indonesia’s future capital, with Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka saying it is expected to house 4,000 civil servants in its first wave. Yet the cost-benefit calculus is fraught. One estimate puts the price tag of the new city at around $35 billion, money that could otherwise reinforce sea walls, upgrade drainage and regulate groundwater in the existing capital. A video explainer on why Jakarta is being replaced rather than reformed underscores that this is not just an engineering decision but a political bet that building anew is easier than fixing a sprawling, sinking megacity.
Tehran and the dry-city dilemma
If Jakarta is drowning, Tehran is drying out. Iran’s capital has endured years of overuse and mismanagement of water resources, leaving major reservoirs depleted and aquifers stressed. Hydrologists quoted in regional analysis warn that Iran is facing a water emergency that may no longer be fully reversible, with Major reservoirs described as dangerously low. The ecological strain has become so severe that some experts now argue the capital’s current location is incompatible with long term water security.
Political leaders are starting to echo that assessment. President Masoud Pezeshkian has said the Water crisis means Iran has no choice but to move the capital, arguing that overcrowding and demand are placing unsustainable pressure on the city’s resources. In a separate statement, he called relocating the capital “unavoidable” amid overcrowding and water shortages, a phrase that appeared in coverage of Iran’s president addressing the issue in Tehran on November 9, 2025. Scientific assessments describe the situation as The Reason Is an Ecological Catastrophe, pointing to a long decline in water supply that has left the current capital exposed to chronic shortages.
The social stakes are enormous. Tehran’s metropolitan area is home to millions of low and middle income residents who lack the savings or political connections to follow government ministries to a new site. Reporting on how Pezeshkian frames the move suggests that without careful planning, the capital shift could entrench a two tier system, with elites relocating to a better serviced city while poorer households remain in a drying metropolis with shrinking public investment. Proposals to import or adapt Israeli water technology hint at one path to stabilizing supplies, but even advocates concede that some of the damage can no longer be fully reversed.
From Jakarta to Lagos: a new map of climate capitals
Jakarta and Tehran are not outliers so much as early markers on a new global map of climate risk. Analysts who track urban vulnerability consistently rank Jakarta, Indonesia among the cities most affected by climate change, citing a 2021 report by Verisk Maplecroft that flagged the capital’s exposure to flooding and heat. A separate list of sinking cities warns that Here are 11 sinking cities that could disappear by 2100, with Jakarta, Indonesia featured prominently as a place where subsidence and sea level rise intersect. In that context, the decision to move the capital looks less like an overreaction and more like a grimly rational response to physical limits.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
