The warmest July on record arrived in the same summer that solar generation across the United States grew by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours. Both figures come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which published them on Sept. 25, 2026 in a short analysis written by Andrew Iraola. The two facts sit side by side in the agency’s account of the June-through-August electricity season, and they are separate findings, one about weather and one about the power mix.
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Solar was not the only source that grew. Wind output rose by an estimated 9.3 billion kilowatt-hours and natural gas-fired generation by 7.5 billion, and solar posted the largest of the three increases.
The EIA’s June-to-August solar estimate
The Sept. 25 EIA analysis states that “solar generation increased by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatthours” compared with the same period in 2025. The wording matters: this is an agency estimate drawn from its Short-Term Energy Outlook, not a metered total, and the analysis does not say which monthly edition of the outlook the solar figure comes from. Wind generation rose by 9.3 billion kilowatt-hours, and gas-fired generation rose by 7.5 billion, on the same June-through-August comparison. The analysis’s principal contributor, Andrew Iraola, is named on the page, but it carries no direct quotation from him, so the statements here are the agency’s own.
Stacked up, solar’s gain was roughly double wind’s and more than two and a half times the increase from gas. The analysis does not give a total for the three sources, and it does not report coal or hydropower changes, so the figures describe the growth in three sources rather than the whole generation mix. That limit is worth keeping in view when reading the 19.4 billion: it is a year-over-year change, and the analysis is silent on the absolute level of summer solar output.
EIA’s wider outlook gives the long view. In the Short-Term Energy Outlook released Oct. 6, 2026, solar’s share of U.S. electricity generation is forecast to rise from 7 percent in 2025 to 8 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027, while wind holds at 11 percent in 2026. The outlook’s electricity section projects U.S. solar capacity growing from 152 gigawatts in 2025 to 182 gigawatts in 2026, about 30 gigawatts of additions, alongside wind growing from 159 to 170 gigawatts. Total generation is projected to rise from 4,430 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,545 billion in 2026. Those are full-year projections, a different measure from the three-month estimate behind the 19.4 billion figure.
A record July, reported separately
On the heat, the EIA analysis says the average temperature in the Lower 48 states was 77 degrees Fahrenheit in July, “the warmest ever for the month,” and attributes the figure to NOAA. The weather agency’s national climate report for July 2026 puts the contiguous United States average at 76.9 degrees, 3.3 degrees above the 20th-century average. That ranks as the warmest July and the warmest month in a 132-year record that begins in 1895, by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees over July 1936 and July 2012.
The agency connects the heat to electricity in one way: demand. “Prices were lower this summer despite exceptionally hot weather that increased electricity demand for air conditioning,” the analysis says, and it adds that natural gas-fired plants often help meet demand in such periods. The outlook’s electricity section backs the demand point with a number, reporting that consumption across the country rose 4 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, with residential use up 6 percent and commercial use up 5 percent.
Neither document says that the heat produced the extra solar output. The EIA analysis ties the heat to air-conditioning demand and ties the generation gains to what it calls additions in renewable capacity and generation, a general statement that does not single out solar. That is why the two records are reported here as concurrent events: a hot July and a larger solar contribution, each documented, with no causal link asserted by the source.
The gas price angle behind the analysis
The solar and wind numbers appear in an analysis whose main subject is natural gas. EIA reports that the Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, 6 percent below the same months of 2025. The agency’s monthly Henry Hub price table shows the July 2026 average at $2.89, compared with $3.20 in July 2025, and August at $2.78 against $2.91.
The analysis gives several reasons for the cheaper gas: increased renewable electricity generation, record natural gas production, ample storage and maintenance at liquefied natural gas export terminals that reduced demand from that sector. Gas production rose about 2 percent, or 2.7 billion cubic feet per day, from June through August 2026 against a year earlier, and the September outlook projects a record 111.2 billion cubic feet per day for the full year.
Storage gave the market a cushion as well. Inventories entered the 2026 injection season at 1,906 billion cubic feet, 4 percent above the five-year average, and the August outlook forecast 3,985 billion cubic feet at the end of October, 5 percent above the five-year average. The analysis frames all of this as the setting for a summer in which prices fell even though gas-fired plants generated 7.5 billion more kilowatt-hours than a year earlier.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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