Humanoid robots have moved from science fiction to industrial strategy, and nowhere is that clearer than in the escalating contest between China and the United States. Beijing is treating bipedal machines as the next great platform after electric vehicles, while Washington is still debating how, and how fast, to respond. The result is a race in which China is not just catching up, but trying to set the terms of a future labor market built around robotic co‑workers.
What looks like a technology trend is, in practice, a contest over manufacturing dominance, data control, and geopolitical leverage. If China succeeds in turning humanoids into a mass‑produced export, the balance of power in global industry could tilt in its favor for a generation, leaving United States firms scrambling to adapt to standards and supply chains set elsewhere.
From national priority to factory floor
China has elevated humanoid robots from curiosity to policy, folding them into a broader push to dominate advanced manufacturing. The country has already used industrial planning to become a powerhouse in electric vehicles and batteries, and it is now applying the same playbook to robots that can walk, grasp, and work in human environments. Official strategies frame humanoids as a way to offset demographic pressures and keep factories running as the workforce ages, a logic that helps explain why China is willing to pour political capital and subsidies into the sector.
That ambition is backed by concrete production targets. Specialists cited in one government‑linked report say the country plans to produce up to 1 million humanoid robots per year by 2027, with the value of the industry projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, and they stress that modern demonstrations are no longer confined to trade‑show theatrics but are beginning to deliver real industrial work on assembly lines and in logistics centers, according to Specialists. That scale, if achieved, would instantly make humanoids as ubiquitous in Chinese factories as industrial arms became in earlier automation waves.
China’s EV playbook, now for humanoids
What makes this moment different is how closely it tracks the rise of Chinese electric vehicles. Earlier this year, research firms Omdia and IDC estimated that Chinese companies control “90%” of the humanoid robot market, a level of dominance that mirrors their grip on battery supply chains. Firms like Agibot and Astribot, listed among the Main Sectors Represented in China for Industry and logistics, are racing to turn prototypes into rugged, low‑cost platforms that can be dropped into warehouses and factories with minimal retooling.
Investors are treating humanoids as the next big hardware bet in a world already awash in AI capital. One analysis of startup activity notes that, As of January 2026, the humanoid robot market has attracted “$2.65 billion” in investment and is on track to deploy thousands of units globally, with some countries already operating more than 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025, according to As of January. Against that backdrop, one Bloomberg Television segment warns that Huge amounts of cash are flooding into AI and robotics in a way that already resembles an “AI bubble,” driven by hype and fear of missing out, as captured in a Huge viral clip.
CES as a battlefield for global influence
The strategic shift is visible on the world’s biggest tech stages. At CES in Las Vegas, Chinese firms did not just show up, they dominated the robotics halls with full‑size humanoids walking, climbing stairs, and performing service tasks, a presence captured in video coverage of CES that highlighted how far their designs have come. Organizers and attendees described the robotics area as effectively a Chinese pavilion, with domestic brands outnumbering United States rivals and using the show to court global buyers.
That presence was no accident. Ahead of the event, China’s Humanoid Robot Makers and Hong Kong Start‑ups were urged to Prepare to Dazzle at CES, with officials and investors framing the show as a launchpad for international expansion and a chance to showcase Chinese humanoid robot and AI hardware firms alongside last year’s exhibition of more traditional robots, according to a planning note on how to Prepare to Dazzle. On the ground in Las Vegas, reports from Jan’s CES show that Chinese humanoid robot makers took the fight directly to the US with latest models, leaning on Price advantages while promising greater data security to reassure foreign buyers.
Exporting humanoids, importing leverage
Chinese humanoid developers are not content to win at home. After CES, a wave of companies signaled plans to enter the United States market, pitching robots as affordable co‑workers for warehouses, hotels, and even elder care. One industry roundup from Jan notes that Chinese Humanoid Robot Makers Target US Market After CES describing how developers are lining up distribution deals and partnerships with US based humanoid robotics firms to accelerate deployment.
Sales momentum is already building. A separate analysis from Jan says China’s humanoid robot sales are expected to double in 2026, with domestic makers preparing for a big year that includes high‑profile appearances on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala broadcast and large pre‑orders from logistics and manufacturing clients. If that trajectory holds, Chinese suppliers will not just be selling hardware, they will be exporting software ecosystems, maintenance contracts, and data standards that could lock foreign customers into long‑term dependence.
US response and the risk of falling behind
For the United States, the challenge is not just technological, it is strategic. Elon Musk has been one of the loudest voices arguing that humanoid robots will be more transformative than cars, and he has warned that “China is an ass‑kicker, next level,” adding that, To the best of our knowledge, Tesla does not yet see any significant humanoid competition in the United States market, a remark captured in a recent profile of Musk. Another report notes that China currently leads the United States in humanoid development and is likely to scale deployments rapidly in this initial phase, according to an assessment that China may be the first to make Musk’s vision of robots everywhere a reality.
Financial analysts are starting to quantify what that gap could mean. Morgan Stanley thinks up to “100,000” humanoids could ship in 2026, with China buying faster than the U.S. and Government agencies and security experts already warning that a cyber risk looms over the robot boom if foreign‑made machines are embedded deeply in critical infrastructure, according to a detailed forecast from Morgan Stanley. At the same time, consumer‑facing brands like UBTech are positioning models such as Walker S2 as part of a new competitive edge for Humanoid robots in China, while US firms chase more abstract general AI, leaving practical, scalable humanoid deployments to their rivals.
Behind the numbers is a broader geopolitical pattern. One global directory of manufacturers shows that, in Dec, China already fields a dense cluster of Industry and logistics players such as Agibot and Astribot, while the United States landscape is more fragmented. Another overview of national strategies notes that China is weaving humanoids into its broader industrial policy, whereas Washington is still debating export controls and security standards. For now, the race is still in its early laps, but the direction of travel is clear: China is betting that whoever builds the world’s humanoid workforce will also write the rules for the next era of global manufacturing.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
