For six years, Samsung has owned the foldable smartphone market almost by default. Its Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip lines have cycled through multiple generations while Apple stayed silent. That silence may be nearing its end. Two independent research firms now project that Apple’s entry into foldables will push global shipments in the category up roughly 20 percent in 2026, a surge that would make the anticipated device the most consequential iPhone redesign since Steve Jobs held up the original in January 2007.
Two forecasts, one conclusion
TrendForce, in an analysis distributed through PR Newswire in May 2026, estimates Apple could capture approximately 20 percent of the global foldable market upon launch, potentially in the second half of 2026. That figure is remarkable given Samsung’s multi-year head start and billions in R&D investment across six generations of foldable hardware.
Counterpoint Research arrives at a strikingly similar number from a different direction. Its forecast projects global foldable smartphone shipments will grow about 20.2 percent year over year in 2026, with Apple’s expected entry explicitly cited as the primary catalyst. Counterpoint also tracks a meaningful internal shift: book-type foldables (the larger, tablet-style devices) are projected to climb from roughly 52 percent of global foldable shipments in 2025 to about 65 percent in 2026. That 13-point swing matters because the most credible supply chain reporting places Apple’s first foldable squarely in the book-type category, not the smaller clamshell form factor popularized by Samsung’s Z Flip.
Neither firm has published its raw datasets, and both build their models from supply chain intelligence, component order tracking, and historical adoption patterns. These are informed projections from established research houses, not confirmed outcomes. But the convergence of two independent forecasts around the same growth rate and market share impact carries weight.
Why book-type changes the math
The tilt toward book-type foldables has direct consequences for buyers and for Apple’s competitive positioning. Larger foldable screens command higher average selling prices. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold6, currently the benchmark in the category, starts above $1,800. A book-type Apple foldable would presumably sit at or above that tier, potentially north of $2,000, placing it above even the current iPhone Pro Max.
For some users, a book-type foldable replaces both a phone and a tablet. That value proposition has driven the segment’s growth even as clamshell models have lost relative share. If Apple enters at the premium end with its ecosystem advantages (iMessage, AirDrop, seamless handoff to Mac and iPad), it could compress years of gradual foldable adoption into a single product cycle. Consumers who have specifically waited for an Apple foldable before leaving their standard iPhone represent a pool of demand that no Android manufacturer can tap.
The competitive field has also expanded since Samsung’s early dominance. Huawei’s Mate X series has gained significant traction in China. Google shipped the Pixel Fold (now Pixel 9 Pro Fold) to mixed but improving reviews. OnePlus and Honor have entered with credible alternatives. Apple’s arrival would not just grow the market; it would force every existing player to sharpen pricing, durability, and software integration to hold share.
The crease problem Apple must solve
One engineering barrier separates current foldable hardware from the seamless experience Apple typically demands at launch. TrendForce identifies stress management along the fold line as the central technical challenge. Every foldable phone on the market today develops a visible crease after repeated use. For Samsung and its Android competitors, buyers have largely accepted this as a tradeoff. Apple’s track record suggests the company would not ship a product with an obvious physical flaw running down the center of the display.
Samsung Display, BOE, and LG Display are the three panel manufacturers most frequently linked to foldable OLED production in supply chain reporting. None has publicly confirmed that crease formation has been resolved to a standard Apple would accept, and no supplier has disclosed a specific Apple foldable contract or timeline. TrendForce’s analysis frames the problem clearly but does not claim it has been solved.
This is not a trivial detail. If Apple’s suppliers cannot minimize the crease to near-invisibility, the launch window could slip. A six-month delay driven by yield issues or display quality concerns would materially change 2026 shipment totals without necessarily invalidating the broader thesis that Apple will eventually enter the foldable category.
What Apple has actually said
Nothing. Apple has not confirmed any foldable product. The company’s most recent Form 10-K, covering the fiscal year ended September 27, 2025, discusses smartphone market risks and supply chain dependencies in general terms but contains no reference to a foldable device, no model-specific shipment targets, and no timeline for new form factors.
That absence is itself informative. If Apple had committed to a specific launch window or production volume, it would typically need to manage those expectations in investor-facing documents. The current regulatory record suggests a company still in active preparation rather than final countdown. Every date and volume projection in circulation originates from third-party analyst models, not from Cupertino.
What history says about Apple entering late
Apple has a pattern of entering established product categories late and then redefining them. The company was not first to market with an MP3 player, a smartphone, a tablet, a smartwatch, or wireless earbuds. In each case, it arrived after competitors had proven demand, then shipped a product polished enough to capture outsized market share within one or two cycles. The iPod launched four years after the first mainstream MP3 players. The Apple Watch arrived years after Samsung and Pebble had shipped wearables.
The foldable category fits this pattern. Samsung introduced the Galaxy Fold in 2019. If Apple ships in late 2026, it will have watched seven years of competitors iterating on hinges, display materials, and software adaptation. The question is whether that patience translates into a meaningfully better product or whether the gap has narrowed enough that Apple’s version feels incremental rather than transformative.
For the roughly 1.2 billion active iPhone users worldwide, the answer may not matter as much as the ecosystem lock-in. Many of those users will not cross-shop a Samsung Z Fold no matter how good it gets. They are waiting for Apple’s version, and the analyst forecasts reflect that pent-up demand.
Where this leaves buyers and investors
The most grounded reading of the current evidence is cautious optimism with clear boundaries. Two credible research firms independently project that Apple’s foldable entry will meaningfully grow the global foldable market in 2026. The shift toward book-type devices aligns with where supply chain signals place Apple’s product. The crease challenge remains unresolved in the public record, and Apple has disclosed nothing in its regulatory filings.
For consumers weighing whether to buy a foldable now or wait, the calculus depends on patience and ecosystem preference. Samsung’s Z Fold line is mature and capable today. Apple’s offering, if it arrives on the projected schedule, would bring iOS integration but at a likely premium price and with first-generation uncertainties of its own.
For investors, the key variable is timing. A late-2026 launch that hits the holiday quarter could deliver the shipment surge both firms project. A slip into 2027 would redistribute that growth and give Samsung, Huawei, and Google another cycle to entrench their positions. Until Apple breaks its silence, most likely at a future hardware event, the foldable iPhone will remain the most closely watched product that technically does not yet exist.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
