More than 60% of the contiguous United States is already gripped by drought, and the worst heat of the year has not arrived yet. AccuWeather is projecting that between 5.5 and 8 million acres will burn nationwide in 2026, a range that, if realized, would rival or exceed the 10-year average of roughly 7 million acres tracked by the National Interagency Fire Center. The forecast lands as federal climate data points in the same troubling direction: expanding drought, above-normal temperatures, and a shrinking window for communities across the West to prepare.
Federal drought data sets the stage
As of early May 2026, about 51% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico was classified as being in drought, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. The Lower 48 states were hit harder: roughly 61% of that land area met drought thresholds on the same date. To put that in perspective, six out of every ten acres in the contiguous U.S. are drought-stressed heading into what is traditionally the driest and hottest stretch of the year.
NOAA’s Spring Outlook reinforces the concern. The agency forecast that drought will expand across the U.S. West and parts of the south-central Plains during the April-to-June window, while above-normal temperatures blanket much of the contiguous United States over the same period. “Drought is forecasted to expand in the U.S. West and parts of the Plains,” the NOAA outlook stated, underscoring the compounding risk as higher heat accelerates the drying of vegetation and soil. When drought and heat compound each other over weeks, even routine lightning strikes or a carelessly discarded cigarette can trigger fires that grow rapidly and resist containment.
What AccuWeather’s projection means and what it does not
AccuWeather’s 5.5-to-8-million-acre range is a modeled prediction from a commercial weather firm with a long track record of seasonal forecasting. It is not an official federal estimate. No primary government agency, including the U.S. Forest Service or NIFC, has published a specific acreage projection for 2026. Federal fire agencies typically issue geographic risk outlooks rather than national acreage totals. Note: AccuWeather’s forecast was reported through its seasonal wildfire outlook coverage; a direct, stable URL to the specific 2026 projection was not available at the time of publication, and the figure is attributed here based on AccuWeather’s public seasonal forecast statements.
That distinction matters, but it does not diminish the signal. The federal drought and temperature data create conditions consistent with a high-acreage fire year. For comparison, 2020 saw more than 10.1 million acres burn across the country, while 2023 came in well below average at roughly 2.7 million acres, according to NIFC records. Where 2026 lands within that wide historical spectrum will depend on variables that no model can pin down months in advance: the timing of monsoonal moisture, the frequency of dry lightning events, and the effectiveness of early suppression efforts.
Key regions under watch through midsummer
NIFC’s seasonal fire potential outlooks have flagged portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Great Basin as areas where above-normal significant fire potential is expected through midsummer. Southern California’s grasslands, which greened up during winter rains and are now curing under rising temperatures, present a different but equally urgent fuel problem. In the south-central Plains, drought expansion could push fire risk into landscapes that do not always make national wildfire headlines but where rural communities have limited suppression resources.
The timing of fire season onset is still an open question. While AccuWeather frames the season as arriving early, no state fire agency or federal body had formally declared an early start as of late May 2026. Drought conditions and above-normal temperatures strongly suggest fire activity could begin sooner than average in many Western states, but seasonal fire calendars vary by state, elevation, and vegetation type. “Early” means something different in Southern California grasslands than it does in Oregon’s Cascade Range.
Precipitation could still shift the outlook
The drought trajectory is not locked in. Precipitation patterns between now and midsummer will determine whether conditions hold, worsen, or partially break. A well-timed monsoonal pattern in the Southwest could reduce fire risk in parts of Arizona and New Mexico while doing little for the Pacific Northwest or Northern Rockies. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center provides rolling updates on precipitation probabilities, but seasonal forecasts carry inherent uncertainty. The current trend, however, points in a worrying direction.
Federal fire suppression spending has trended upward for decades, and a season at the upper end of AccuWeather’s range would almost certainly strain budgets. No federal budget office has released a cost estimate tied to the 2026 drought-fire outlook, so specific dollar projections at this stage would be speculative. What is clear is that the drought baseline, with more than 60% of the Lower 48 already affected, sets the stage for costly operations if conditions do not improve.
What residents in fire-prone areas should do now
For people living in the Western states and south-central Plains, the practical takeaway does not hinge on whether the final acreage total lands at 5.5 million or 8 million. The federal data alone signals elevated risk. Communities should review defensible space around homes, confirm that insurance coverage is current and adequate for wildfire damage, and stay alert to local burn restrictions and evacuation planning.
The most actionable information tends to be hyperlocal. While national drought maps provide a broad backdrop, homeowners and businesses can use point-and-click tools from the National Weather Service to monitor daily conditions: wind speed, humidity, and short-term precipitation. Checking a local forecast helps residents anticipate critical fire weather days when embers are more likely to travel and small ignitions can spread fast. Combining that local detail with the broader drought outlook gives a clearer picture of when to postpone outdoor burning, harden vulnerable structures, or prepare go-bags for potential evacuations.
Agencies prepare for scenarios from moderate to record-breaking
On the policy side, the documented expansion of drought and the expectation of above-normal temperatures provide a strong basis for pre-positioning crews, aircraft, and equipment in high-risk regions. The absence of a definitive acreage forecast means agencies must plan for scenarios ranging from a moderately severe season to one that rivals the most destructive years on record.
The 2026 wildfire season will ultimately be judged not only by the number of acres burned but by how well communities and institutions translated early warning signs into preparation. The federal drought and temperature outlooks offer a grounded, science-based signal that conditions are primed for large fires. AccuWeather’s acreage range adds a probabilistic layer that points in the same direction but carries more uncertainty. Together, they argue for vigilance: the risks are elevated, the exact outcomes are not yet fixed, and the window for reducing harm through planning and mitigation is open now, before the hottest and driest weeks of June arrive.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
