Buyers shopping for a new SUV in 2026 face a sharp question: which models will still be worth something five years from now? Kelley Blue Book answered part of that question when it released its 2026 Best Resale Value Awards, projecting that the strongest performers will hold roughly 55 percent or more of their original sticker price after five years and about 75,000 miles. With used-vehicle prices still elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, the gap between SUVs that retain value and those that shed it fast has real financial consequences for anyone financing or leasing a vehicle right now.
Why resale strength carries extra weight for SUV buyers in 2026
The cost of replacing a vehicle has climbed sharply over the past several years, and government data helps explain why resale value matters more than it used to. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks used-vehicle prices as a distinct component of the Consumer Price Index, and those measurements have reflected sustained price pressure in the secondary market. When used vehicles cost more across the board, an SUV that retains a higher share of its MSRP at trade-in time puts real dollars back in the owner’s pocket, whether that money goes toward a down payment on the next vehicle or simply reduces the total cost of ownership.
KBB’s methodology zeroes in on that dynamic. The awards calculate five-year residual value as a percentage of the vehicle’s original MSRP, using projected future auction values at approximately 75,000 miles as the benchmark. Models with very low production volumes are excluded, which means the list reflects vehicles that ordinary buyers can actually find on dealer lots. The result is a ranking designed to separate SUVs with durable demand from those whose prices collapse once the new-car smell fades.
A separate but related program from J.D. Power, the U.S. ALG Residual Value Awards, applies its own forward-looking forecasts to similar questions. ALG uses different segment definitions and eligibility rules, so the two programs do not always agree on winners. That divergence is useful for shoppers: when the same SUV earns recognition from both KBB and ALG, it signals broad confidence in that model’s staying power across two independent forecasting systems.
How KBB and ALG projections separate strong SUV residuals from average ones
KBB’s 2026 awards project that the top 10 vehicles overall will retain roughly 55 percent or more of MSRP after five years, according to the company’s announcement. That threshold matters because the average vehicle loses value much faster. A buyer who picks an SUV near the top of the list could recover thousands more at resale compared to a competitor that retains only 40 percent.
KBB also draws a deliberate line between “resale value” and “residual value.” Resale value reflects what a private party or dealer will actually pay for a used vehicle. Residual value, by contrast, is a forward-looking estimate used primarily in lease calculations. The awards focus on projected resale, grounding the numbers in expected auction performance rather than lease-contract assumptions. That distinction keeps the rankings closer to what owners experience when they sell or trade in.
ALG’s program works from a similar premise but applies its own segmentation. Vehicles are grouped into categories that may not match KBB’s class definitions, so a midsize SUV winner in one program could compete in a different bracket under the other. The practical takeaway for buyers is straightforward: cross-referencing both lists narrows the field to SUVs with the strongest consensus support for long-term value retention.
The hypothesis that SUVs recognized by both programs would show smaller gaps between projected and realized resale prices is logical but difficult to confirm with public data alone. Neither KBB nor ALG publishes the granular auction-price observations behind their forecasts, and the BLS CPI series tracks aggregate used-vehicle price movements rather than model-level transactions. Testing that idea would require matching award-year projections against later wholesale auction results for the same vehicles, a dataset that remains proprietary.
What buyers still cannot confirm about these seven SUVs
The biggest limitation in the current evidence is specificity. KBB publishes segment-level winners and an overall top list, but the exact residual percentages for individual SUVs are not broken out in the primary award materials available for review. Shoppers can see which models won their segments, yet they cannot easily compare, say, the projected five-year retention of a compact SUV winner against a full-size SUV winner using the same source document.
A second gap involves real-world validation. KBB’s projections are forward-looking estimates, not guarantees. Market disruptions, shifts in fuel prices, changes in consumer preference toward electric versus gasoline powertrains, and even regulatory changes can all alter the trajectory of used-SUV prices after the awards are published. If gas prices spike, for example, smaller crossovers might outperform their original projections while large, thirsty SUVs lag. Conversely, if charging infrastructure stalls or incentives change, certain electric SUVs could underperform optimistic forecasts.
Third, the awards do not fully capture regional variation. An all-wheel-drive SUV with strong snow-belt demand may command higher resale prices in northern states than in warmer regions, even if the national projection averages those outcomes together. Buyers in coastal cities, rural areas, or states with unique tax structures may see different real-world numbers than the national figures imply.
Finally, the awards say little about how options, trims, and colors influence resale. A base model with minimal equipment may depreciate differently than a mid-grade trim with popular packages, even within the same nameplate. Likewise, conservative exterior colors often sell faster on the used market than unusual hues, but those nuances are not broken out in the headline projections that most shoppers see.
How SUV shoppers can use resale forecasts without overrelying on them
Despite those blind spots, the KBB and ALG projections still provide a useful starting point for SUV buyers in 2026. The key is to treat them as one input in a broader decision rather than a guarantee. A shopper who narrows their list to several SUVs with strong projected resale can then layer in other practical questions: Which model offers the safety features they want? How do insurance quotes compare? What are the expected maintenance and repair costs over the same five-year window?
Financing structure matters as well. A buyer who makes a small down payment and opts for a long loan term is more vulnerable to depreciation swings, because they may owe more than the SUV is worth if resale values soften. For that shopper, choosing a model with stronger projected value retention can reduce the risk of being “upside down” on the loan. Leasers, meanwhile, should recognize that higher residual estimates can cut monthly payments, but only if the captive finance company shares similar assumptions about future values.
There is also a behavioral advantage to focusing on resale: it encourages shoppers to think about total cost of ownership rather than just the monthly payment. An SUV with a slightly higher price today could end up cheaper over five years if its resale value remains robust. By comparing likely trade-in values at the end of the ownership period, buyers can frame the purchase as paying for the portion of the vehicle they actually use, not the entire MSRP.
For now, though, the data stops short of proving that any specific 2026 SUV will hit its projected resale target to the decimal point. The awards highlight models that forecasters believe will age well in the used market, but the actual outcome will depend on factors that no one can fully anticipate in advance. Shoppers who understand both the power and the limits of those projections are better positioned to pick an SUV that fits their budget today and still looks like a smart decision when it is time to sell or trade five years down the road.
More from Morning Overview
*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
