Across Kansas, winter wheat fields that should be knee-high by now are stunted and brown. In New Mexico, reservoir storage along the Rio Grande sits at a fraction of its seasonal average. And in Southern California, fire crews are already pre-positioning engines and dozers for a season that, by every federal metric, is shaping up to be punishing.
As of late May 2026, roughly 62 percent of the contiguous United States falls within drought categories tracked by the U.S. Drought Monitor, the federal government’s authoritative weekly assessment. That makes spring 2026 one of the driest in the monitor’s 26-year history, rivaling the severe drought springs of 2012 and 2021. Precipitation deficits that began building in late winter have deepened through April and May, draining soil moisture, dropping streamflows, and curing vegetation weeks ahead of schedule across the West, the Great Plains, and stretches of the Southeast.
Peak wildfire season typically arrives in late summer and early fall. It has not arrived yet, and conditions are already deteriorating fast.
How bad the numbers are
The Drought Monitor, a joint product of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USDA, NOAA, and NASA, classifies drought on a five-step scale from D1 (moderate) through D4 (exceptional). The latest assessment pegs Lower 48 drought coverage at 61.68 percent, with pockets of D3 (extreme) and D4 (exceptional) drought concentrated in the southern Plains, the Four Corners region, and parts of the Gulf Coast states.
That figure applies specifically to the contiguous states. When Puerto Rico and other territories are included, the national number drops closer to 52 percent because those areas were not experiencing comparable dryness during the most recent assessment window. News outlets rounding to “nearly 63 percent” are using the Lower 48 metric, which is the standard frame for mainland drought coverage.
To put the number in historical context: the Drought Monitor has been publishing weekly maps since 2000. Spring readings above 60 percent are rare. The last time drought coverage reached comparable levels this early in the year was during the 2012 drought, which went on to become one of the costliest agricultural disasters in modern U.S. history, and during the western megadrought conditions of 2021.
Fire season is already running hot
Dry ground translates directly into fire risk, and federal tracking shows that translation is already underway. The National Interagency Fire Center’s situation reports document year-to-date fire activity running above the 10-year average in both the number of ignitions and total acres burned. Active incidents are being tracked through InciWeb, the federal incident information system, and NIFC Predictive Services has flagged elevated to above-normal significant fire potential across several regions through the summer months.
The USDA Forest Service reinforced that warning in its own spring 2026 drought status fact sheet, which maps drought severity by Forest Service region and pairs it with streamflow data from the USGS WaterWatch network. The overlap is stark: many of the basins showing below-normal flows sit in the same zones flagged for above-normal fire potential. Dry soils, depleted groundwater, and vegetation that has cured weeks early are creating conditions that favor rapid fire spread well before the calendar says fire season should be peaking.
Federal suppression spending offers another lens. The Forest Service has spent an average of more than $2 billion per year on wildfire suppression over the past decade, according to Congressional Research Service reports. No official cost forecast for the 2026 fire year has been released, but the early indicators point toward a season that could test those budgets again.
What is driving the dryness
Several factors have converged to produce this spring’s drought footprint. A weak La Nina pattern that persisted through winter failed to deliver the moisture that the southern tier of the country typically receives during such events. Snowpack across much of the Rocky Mountain West came in below average, and what snow did accumulate melted earlier than normal, sending runoff through river systems before reservoirs and irrigation networks could capture it.
Soil moisture deficits compound the problem. When soils are already dry heading into spring, even average rainfall gets absorbed before it can recharge streams and aquifers. NOAA’s seasonal outlooks have indicated that above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation are likely to persist across much of the drought footprint through at least midsummer, though the arrival and strength of the Southwest monsoon, which typically begins in late June or early July, remains a key uncertainty. A robust monsoon season could ease conditions in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. A weak one would deepen them.
On the ground: agriculture, water, and communities
The drought’s effects are already tangible in farm country. Winter wheat conditions across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have been rated among the poorest in years by USDA crop progress reports, with a significant share of acreage in “poor” or “very poor” condition. Ranchers in the southern Plains are culling herds earlier than usual because pasture and rangeland conditions cannot support normal stocking rates. The USDA has issued disaster designations in multiple counties, unlocking emergency loan programs for affected producers.
Water managers are feeling the squeeze as well. Reservoir levels along the Colorado River system, already stressed by more than two decades of aridification, remain well below full capacity. Cities and irrigation districts across the West have implemented or expanded mandatory water-use restrictions. In parts of the Southeast, where drought has been less persistent historically, communities are confronting shortfalls they are less accustomed to managing.
For wildland-urban interface communities, the calculus is more immediate. Fire agencies urge residents in and near drought-affected areas to clear defensible space around structures, review evacuation plans, and stay current on local fire restrictions. The window for preparation narrows as temperatures climb.
What to watch this summer
Three variables will determine whether spring 2026’s drought hardens into a full-blown crisis or begins to ease. The first is the Southwest monsoon: its timing, strength, and geographic reach will shape conditions across the interior West starting in late June. The second is the trajectory of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which influence precipitation patterns across much of North America. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is monitoring for a potential shift toward El Nino conditions later in the year, which could eventually bring relief to parts of the southern U.S. but would take months to materialize.
The third, and most consequential in the near term, is fire. A single large, wind-driven fire event in the wrong place could strain suppression resources and force evacuations on a scale that turns a slow-building drought story into a front-page emergency. Federal agencies are staffing up and pre-positioning assets, but the gap between current dryness and available resources is a recurring concern in NIFC briefings.
For now, the data is unambiguous on one point: more than six in ten acres of the Lower 48 are in drought, the driest spring stretch the country has seen in years, and the hardest months are still ahead. The Drought Monitor updates every Thursday. It is worth checking.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
