More than six out of every ten acres in the contiguous United States are in drought as of late May 2026, the result of a punishing four-month dry spell that left the country with its second-lowest January-through-April rainfall total since record-keeping began in 1895. Federal fire managers are now preparing for a wildfire season that could produce up to 80,000 fires scorching 8 million acres, numbers that would land well above the recent 10-year average tracked by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).
For ranchers watching cattle graze on brittle pasture across western Kansas, farmers staring at stunted winter wheat in the Texas Panhandle, and homeowners clearing brush in fire-prone foothills from Southern California to central Oregon, the numbers translate into daily, tangible risk.
A historic rainfall deficit
Between January and April 2026, the lower 48 states received just 7.49 inches of precipitation, roughly 79% of the long-term average, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Only one previous January-through-April period in the agency’s 131-year dataset was drier. The deficit was not evenly distributed: parts of the central and southern Plains and the interior Southeast recorded rainfall totals more than 40% below normal, while portions of the Pacific Northwest received near-normal snowpack that has kept rivers and hydropower reservoirs closer to seasonal targets.
That lopsided pattern matters. National averages can mask the places where conditions are most dangerous. In counties stretching from the Oklahoma Panhandle south through central Texas, topsoil moisture ratings have fallen to levels the USDA typically associates with significant crop stress, and winter wheat condition reports reflect the strain. Meanwhile, reservoir storage in parts of the Colorado River basin and the Rio Grande system is trending below average for late spring, narrowing the buffer water managers count on to get through a dry summer.
Drought by the numbers
The U.S. Drought Monitor, a joint product of NOAA, the USDA, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, placed approximately 61.7% of the contiguous U.S. in drought as of its April 28 report. A week later, on May 5, the figure stood at 60.92% for the lower 48. When Alaska and U.S. territories are included, the share drops to about 50.9%, because those areas receive more consistent moisture and pull the national average down.
More concerning than the raw percentage is the intensifying severity. Large swaths of the central Plains, the interior West, and pockets of the Southeast have crossed into the Drought Monitor’s “severe” (D2) or “extreme” (D3) categories, where impacts include widespread pasture loss, mandatory water-use restrictions, and sharply elevated fire danger. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index, which captures both how much land is dry and how dry it is, has been climbing steadily since February.
Wildfire season is already underway
Spring fires have been running ahead of pace. NIFC’s year-to-date statistics show elevated early-season activity across the southern Plains and parts of the West, driven by cured grasses, low humidity, and gusty winds. Individual incidents are tracked in near real time through InciWeb, the interagency portal that posts fire size, containment status, and evacuation orders from federal, state, and tribal agencies.
The projection of up to 80,000 wildfires burning 8 million acres has circulated in seasonal forecasting discussions and media coverage this spring. For context, the NIFC’s own 10-year average (2014 through 2023) is roughly 62,000 fires and 7.2 million acres annually. An above-average season is plausible given current fuel conditions and drought coverage, and NIFC’s Predictive Services program has flagged above-normal significant fire potential for much of the Plains and portions of the Great Basin through summer. However, the specific 80,000/8-million figures do not appear in a single named federal outlook document with an attached confidence interval. They are best understood as an upper-range scenario rather than a precise forecast.
What could change the outlook
The biggest wild card is the North American monsoon. In a strong monsoon year, surges of tropical moisture sweep into the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies from late June through September, delivering heavy rain that can recharge soils, refill smaller reservoirs, and temporarily knock down fire danger. A weak or delayed monsoon would push drought deeper into the extreme and exceptional categories across the interior West.
The current state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also shapes the odds. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center monitors ENSO conditions closely because they influence jet-stream position, storm tracks, and temperature patterns across the U.S. The agency’s latest seasonal outlook factors in ENSO status when projecting summer temperature and precipitation probabilities, and those probabilities feed directly into NIFC’s fire-potential assessments.
Regional variation complicates any single national narrative. A slow-moving storm system in late May or June can erase weeks of deficit in one river basin while leaving a neighboring county untouched. That patchwork outcome is why drought maps often show sharp gradients between adjacent counties, and why a rancher in southwest Kansas and a fruit grower in Washington’s Yakima Valley can be living in entirely different realities despite sharing the same national statistic.
How to use the data and protect yourself
The strongest evidence anchoring this story comes from two federal primary sources. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information provides the precipitation totals and historical rankings. The U.S. Drought Monitor supplies the weekly coverage and severity percentages. Both datasets are transparent in methodology, updated on fixed schedules, and form the backbone of agricultural disaster declarations and water-management decisions nationwide.
NIFC’s fire statistics carry similar weight for year-to-date fire counts and acreage. These numbers are compiled from on-the-ground incident reports, giving them a direct chain from the fire line to the database. When seasonal projections appear in news coverage, readers should look for the named outlook document, the issuing agency, and whether the figure represents a baseline expectation, an upper bound, or a worst-case scenario. A number stripped of its confidence range is closer to a talking point than a forecast.
For anyone living in a drought-affected area right now, the most actionable steps are local. Check your county’s drought status on the Drought Monitor’s weekly map. Review municipal water-restriction notices, which many utilities have already tightened this spring. If you live near fire-prone wildland, update your defensible-space clearance and review evacuation routes; guidance is available from NIFC, the National Park Service, and your state forestry agency.
The gap between a dry statistic on a federal website and a fire bearing down on a neighborhood can close in hours once heat, wind, and dry fuels align. In a year when more than half the country entered summer already parched, acting on the information that is already clear may matter more than waiting for the next forecast update.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
