Global trade was supposed to be stuck in a low-growth rut, squeezed by geopolitics, supply chain shocks and industrial policy. Instead, a surge of spending on artificial intelligence hardware, software and data infrastructure is starting to show up in trade flows, hinting at an upside that traditional forecasts largely missed. The World Trade Organization now argues that if governments and companies manage the transition well, AI could turn from a marginal tech story into a structural driver of cross-border commerce.
Behind the headline projections is a deeper shift in how goods and services move, who benefits and what kinds of rules will be needed. I see the WTO’s latest analysis as less a prediction of inevitable windfalls and more a warning that policy choices over the next decade will determine whether AI amplifies existing divides or genuinely broadens participation in global markets.
AI hardware boom is already reshaping trade flows
The first sign that AI is changing trade is not in abstract productivity models but in very concrete shipments of servers, chips and networking gear. The WTO has highlighted how a wave of AI-related investment, particularly in advanced semiconductors and the infrastructure needed for data centers, is feeding directly into merchandise trade volumes. That includes high performance graphics processing units, specialized accelerators and the power and cooling systems that make hyperscale facilities viable, all of which cross borders multiple times before they are installed.
Earlier this year, the organization pointed to an AI-related buying binge and a spike in United States imports as key reasons goods trade outperformed expectations, with the effect visible in categories such as information and communications technology equipment and electrical machinery. In its latest commentary, the WTO links this surprise resilience to demand for AI-enabling products, while a separate analysis notes that the growing trade in artificial intelligence equipment and the infrastructure needed for data centers is becoming a distinct engine of cross-border flows, a trend echoed in recent WTO signals about possible upside for global trade as AI investment accelerates.
From cost cuts to a projected 40% trade surge
Beyond the immediate hardware cycle, the WTO is now putting numbers on how software and algorithms could reshape trade over the longer term. Its flagship assessment argues that AI-driven cost savings and productivity gains could lift the value of cross-border trade in goods and services by 40% by 2040, provided that countries invest in digital infrastructure and skills. That figure reflects not just more containers on ships but also a larger volume of services delivered digitally, from cloud computing to design and engineering work that can be traded across borders in real time.
The same projection appears in the WTO’s own communication on its latest global trade assessment, which states that AI could boost trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if gaps are bridged in areas such as connectivity, data governance and human capital. A separate summary aimed at business readers underscores the same point, noting that AI Could Boost Global Trade by Nearly 40% by 2040, and that The World Trade Report frames this upside as contingent on open and predictable market policies to mitigate inequality, rather than as a guaranteed outcome.
How AI lowers trade barriers for firms of all sizes
For companies on the ground, the most immediate impact of AI is not in macro forecasts but in the friction it removes from daily cross-border business. Translation tools powered by large language models are already making it easier for small producers to communicate with buyers and suppliers in multiple markets, cutting the time and cost of negotiating contracts, handling customer service and localizing marketing. The WTO has emphasized that AI-driven translation technologies can make communication faster and more cost-effective, particularly benefiting small producers that previously struggled with language barriers, a point highlighted in its analysis that AI is set to transform global trade by reducing trade costs and boosting productivity, as reflected in recent WTO findings.
Sector-specific studies suggest that these gains will not be limited to digital-native industries. An assessment of the textiles and fashion apparel sector, for example, notes that AI has the potential to boost global trade by cutting lead times, improving demand forecasting and enabling more customized production runs that still make sense at scale. According to this analysis, AI can help brands and manufacturers coordinate complex supply chains more efficiently, while also warning that the benefits will be uneven if smaller suppliers lack access to the necessary tools and data, a nuance captured in a detailed review of the 2025 World Trade and its implications for fashion and apparel.
Risks, inequalities and the policy choices that will decide the outcome
The WTO’s optimism about AI’s trade potential is tempered by a clear warning that the technology could widen gaps between and within countries if left to market forces alone. Advanced economies and large firms are better positioned to invest in cutting-edge models, data centers and specialized talent, which could allow them to capture a disproportionate share of the gains from lower trade costs and higher productivity. The organization’s executive summary stresses that without deliberate efforts to spread access to digital infrastructure, skills and finance, AI could entrench existing patterns of concentration in global value chains, a concern spelled out in the World Trade Report overview of how trade and AI might work together to the benefit of all.
Policy will therefore be decisive in turning AI into a broad-based trade catalyst rather than a narrow advantage for a few hubs. The WTO has called for open and predictable trade policies, warning that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to goods and services has been rising and could choke off some of the potential benefits if they are extended to digital flows and AI-related products. Its communication on AI’s trade impact argues that bridging gaps in connectivity, data governance and human capital is essential to realizing the projected gains, while the broader narrative that AI Could Boost Global Trade by 40% by 2040, as articulated in The World Trade Report and related commentary that Says WTO Report, explicitly ties the upside scenario to complementary measures such as competition policy, social safety nets and international cooperation on standards.
Why the upside case still depends on political will
What stands out to me in the WTO’s latest work is how conditional the upside scenario really is. The organization is not simply projecting a smooth 40% rise in trade but mapping a fork in the road between a world where AI reduces trade costs for everyone and one where it reinforces existing hierarchies. The recent signals that AI investment is already lifting goods trade, including the AI-related buying binge and the spike in United States imports that helped merchandise trade beat expectations, show that the technology is powerful enough to move the needle on global statistics, as reflected in the WTO’s own signals about possible upside to global trade as AI investment accelerates.
Whether that early momentum translates into the projected 40% expansion by 2040 will depend on choices that are being made now in capitals and boardrooms. Governments will need to decide how open to keep digital markets, how to regulate data flows and how to support workers whose jobs are reshaped by automation, while companies will have to weigh the short-term gains from proprietary ecosystems against the longer-term benefits of interoperable standards and broader participation. The WTO’s analysis, from its detailed executive summary to its sectoral case studies and its repeated emphasis that AI Could Boost Global Trade by 40% if gaps are bridged, is ultimately a call for that political will, not a guarantee that the upside will arrive on its own.
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