Electric vehicles were sold to the public as an imminent takeover, a rapid flip from gasoline to plugs that would dominate roads within a decade. Instead, the latest global projections point to a slower, more uneven transition, with battery models still far from universal even in the 2030s. The hype was not entirely fake, but the timeline many people heard was.
What is emerging now is a picture of steady, structural growth that collides with consumer hesitation, industrial bottlenecks and political pushback. Forecasts for 2035 show electric cars as a powerful force in the market, yet still sharing the road with a large fleet of combustion vehicles and hybrids.
What the new forecasts actually say
The most striking shift is not that electric vehicles are stalling, but that expectations are being recalibrated. Earlier, some advocates talked as if plug-in cars would be close to universal by the mid 2030s. Instead, detailed global projections now point to a world where electric models make up a majority of new sales by that point, while the overall fleet remains mixed. One major dataset expects electric vehicles to reach a global sales share of 64.6% in 2035 and 83.2% in 2040, after climbing through 27.5% in 2026 and 43.2% in 2030, a trajectory that still leaves a large slice of buyers in the combustion or hybrid camp for years to come, as shown in 27.5%, 43.2%, 64.6%,.
Another influential set of projections points in the same direction, with electric models forecast to account for roughly two thirds of global light vehicle sales in 2035. That outlook notes that EV uptake has weakened in some markets compared with earlier expectations, particularly after a softer 2023 in China, yet still sees battery and plug-in hybrids dominating new purchases over time. The same analysis projects that the global vehicle fleet will take longer to turn over, with combustion cars remaining on the road well into the 2040s even as electric sales surge.
From “EV boom” to “EV realism”
Automakers are now adjusting to what some executives openly call a phase of EV realism. The long term direction is not in doubt, but the pace is. One senior industry figure put it bluntly, saying that the future is electric, but adding that the timeline is being recalibrated as companies digest slower than expected demand in some segments and the cost of building out charging and battery supply chains, a sentiment captured in a recent analysis of how However automakers react in 2026. I see that recalibration in decisions like stretching product launch timelines, rebalancing investment between pure battery models and hybrids, and renegotiating battery plant plans with governments.
This realism is not the same as retreat. Global EV sales hit 18.5 m units in 2025, a figure that includes light passenger vehicles and commercial models, according to one Market Forecast of Top Trends for the sector. That is a massive industry by any standard, and it is still growing. What has changed is that boardrooms are no longer planning as if every customer will be ready to plug in by the early 2030s. Instead, they are preparing for a long coexistence of drivetrains, with premium buyers and fleet operators moving first and more price sensitive households following only when costs, charging access and resale values feel less risky.
Regional gaps behind the global averages
Behind the global percentages sit stark regional differences that help explain why some people feel the hype was overblown. In parts of northern Europe, electric models already command a large share of new sales, while other regions are only beginning to move beyond early adopters. A recent global comparison notes that 39 countries had reached an EV sales share larger than 10% in 2025, with roughly a third of those outside Europe, a sign that the transition is broadening but still far from universal. I read that as evidence of a two speed world, where some markets are racing ahead while others are only now building the basic infrastructure and policy frameworks.
Forecasts of the global EV share of the new light vehicle market reflect that patchwork. One widely cited outlook, Based on a September forecast update from a group known for tracking Actuals from 2015 to 202, expects the global EV share of new light vehicle sales to keep climbing through the 2020s and 2030s, but still short of total dominance even by 2040, with a projected share of 83% in that year according to Volumes. That leaves room for regional laggards, especially where charging networks are sparse, electricity grids are fragile or fuel subsidies remain politically sensitive.
The United States and the 30% question
In the United States, the debate over whether EV hype was fake is especially sharp, because expectations were set high while the on the ground experience has been uneven. One influential industry group now projects that there will be 78.5 M electric vehicles on U.S. Roads in 2035, a figure that reflects both battery electric and plug in hybrid models and assumes continued policy support and infrastructure build out, as detailed in an EEI analysis that Projects how many Million EVs Will Be on the road. Even if that projection holds, it would still leave a majority of the U.S. vehicle fleet running on gasoline or diesel in 2035, given the hundreds of millions of cars and trucks already in service.
That is where the under 30% idea comes in. If electric models make up two thirds of new global sales by 2035, as some forecasts suggest, the share of the total global fleet that is electric will be much lower, because vehicles last a decade or more. In a country like the United States, where average vehicle age is high and pickup trucks and SUVs dominate, it is plausible that electric vehicles will still account for well under a third of all vehicles on the road in 2035, even if new sales are tilting strongly toward plugs. Unverified based on available sources, the exact U.S. fleet percentage in that year remains uncertain, but the combination of the 78.5 M projection and the slow churn of the existing fleet points to a long transition rather than a sudden flip.
Industry, policy and the road beyond 2035
Automakers are not waiting for perfect certainty before they move. As countries introduce stricter regulations on emissions, manufacturers are responding by focusing more of their product plans on electric vehicles, with China and Euro markets alone representing nearly two thirds of global volume for some leading EV companies. I see that regulatory push in concrete products, from mass market crossovers like the BYD Atto 3 and Volkswagen ID.4 to high end models such as the Mercedes EQS and BMW i5, all designed to meet tightening fleet average targets and urban clean air rules.
At the same time, the global EV market is being shaped by emerging economies that are leapfrogging straight into electrification. In several major developing markets, two and three wheelers, small city cars and ride hailing fleets are adopting plugs faster than private households in richer countries. That dynamic is helping to drive the global numbers upward even as some mature markets cool. A recent global review of EV adoption highlights how emerging markets are now central to the boom, with 39 countries already above the 10% sales share threshold and a growing share of those outside the traditional strongholds of Europe and North America, as detailed in the Global EV leapfrog analysis. That is why, when I look at the projections for 2035, I do not see fake hype so much as a messy, region by region race whose finish line is still decades away.
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