The West’s electric-heat bills are set to rise 9% as its winter turns colder

Western households that heat with electricity are projected to spend $1,151 this winter, 9% more than last winter, as the region heads into a much colder season. The Energy Information Administration’s base case counts 2,781 heating degree days across the West from November through March, a 25% increase. Natural gas customers in the West are also on track to pay more, the only region where that is true.

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EIA published the regional figures on Oct. 6 in its Winter Fuels Outlook for 2026-27.

A West that runs 25% colder by degree days

Heating degree days are the standard yardstick for cold: for each day, the average of the high and low is subtracted from 65 degrees Fahrenheit, negative results count as zero, and the daily values are added up, as EIA’s glossary explains. In the October outlook, the West totals 2,781 for the five months, built from 462 in November, 663 in December, 644 in January, 538 in February and 474 in March. That is 25% above last winter, the largest swing of any region.

The other regions barely move or get milder. The Northeast is forecast at 4,331 degree days, down 12%, the Midwest at 4,802, down 2%, and the South at 2,021, up 1%. The national total of 3,155 is unchanged from last winter, which means the West’s chill is averaged away in the national weather picture even though it dominates the Western bill. A Western household looking only at the national outlook for a winter similar to last year’s would miss that its own region is the exception, with a quarter more heating demand than a year ago and no milder neighbor offsetting it.

EIA attaches a caveat. NOAA has identified a “strong El Niño pattern this winter,” which could make temperatures differ from the forecast, and the agency’s side cases vary degree days by 10% in every region.

Consumption, not the rate, lifts the electric bill

The arithmetic of the West’s 9% increase is unusually clean. Residential electricity is projected at 20.47 cents per kilowatt-hour, up only 1%, while consumption by electric-heat households climbs 9% to 5,624 kilowatt-hours. The extra bill is therefore almost entirely extra heating, not a repricing of power. A household that keeps its thermostat habits and its rate plan would see most of the increase arrive in December and January, the two months that carry the largest degree-day totals in the West forecast. For comparison, the Northeast pays 26.19 cents, 4% more, but is expected to use 6% less electricity, so its average bill falls 3% to $1,637.

Elsewhere the picture is modest. The Midwest is projected at $1,380, up 3%, on 8,178 kilowatt-hours, and the South at $1,079, also up 3%, on 6,849 kilowatt-hours. The national average for electric-heat homes is $1,196, up 4%, so the West’s $1,151 would still sit below the U.S. figure even after its increase. The region’s electric-heat households are starting from a lower base than those in the Northeast, where bills run roughly $490 higher, a gap of about $486. In dollar terms, the Western increase works out to roughly $95 over the winter, a figure that EIA’s rounded percentages imply but that varies with each home’s equipment and insulation. The 9% is a regional average, and individual bills will land above or below it depending on the home.

Retail prices respond slowly, which helps explain why the West’s rate barely moves. EIA’s outlook notes that retail natural gas and electricity prices lag wholesale because of utility regulation, and its explainer on purchased-gas adjustment charges describes how state commissions approve periodic rate changes rather than letting prices follow markets day to day.

Western gas customers also pay more

The cold shows up in natural gas as well. West households that heat with gas are projected to spend $590, up 7%, even though the price per thousand cubic feet falls 8% to $15.10, because consumption jumps 17% to 39 thousand cubic feet. Every other region is expected to see a decline: the Northeast $879, down 14%, the Midwest $613, down 10%, and the South $511, down 15%, against a U.S. average of $640, down 9%.

Readers weighing fuels should note EIA’s own warning that the figures are not a menu. The outlook says expenditure comparisons across fuels are not direct, and the agency’s piece on why heating costs resist comparison reports that electricity was the main space-heating fuel in 42% of U.S. households in 2024 and natural gas in 47%, with heat pumps expanding electricity’s share in colder climates.

The model underneath rests on consumption patterns from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, converted to monthly values with the agency’s price forecasts and an assumed inflation rate of about 2%. EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for Nov. 10, when the West’s degree-day assumption and El Niño caveat will be tested against early-winter weather.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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