The country has already counted 66,721 wildfires this year, a third more than usual

The National Interagency Coordination Center counted 66,721 wildfires across the United States for the year through its Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 situation report, a total that stands at 132% of the 2016-2025 average for the date. That average is 50,571 fires, so the country is about 16,150 fires, or roughly a third, ahead of a typical year at this point. The same 0730 MDT report lists 9,061,386 acres burned, 141% of a 6,421,573-acre average.

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How far the count runs past the 50,571-fire average

The comparison is the center’s own. Each daily report sets the year-to-date count against the ten-year average for the same date, and the gap has barely moved through October.

The situation report’s 66,721 fires, 132% of the 2016-2025 average of 50,571, comes with a caution from NICC about how the numbers settle. Cumulative acres in the incident table “may not be reflected in the YTD statistics” because of “a lag in units completing YTD adjustments,” and changes in agency totals otherwise reflect “more accurate mapping or reporting adjustments.” In practice, the year-to-date figure is revised as individual units finish their paperwork, and 66,721 is a Wednesday morning snapshot rather than a closed ledger.

A week earlier the center’s Oct. 21 report showed 66,204 fires at 134% of average and 9,050,949 acres at 142%. The week therefore added 517 fires and 10,437 acres, and the percentage drifted down because the ten-year average kept climbing while the 2026 count slowed. The season summary in NICC’s October outlook, covering the period through Sept. 30, put the count at about 62,369 fires and 8.6 million acres, so roughly 4,300 fires have been added in the weeks since.

Where 66,721 sits against whole years

NIFC’s table of annual totals lists 77,850 fires and 5,131,474 acres for 2025, the busiest year for fire count in the last ten. This year’s 66,721 has already passed the full-year totals for 2024 (64,897), 2023 (56,580), 2021 (58,985), 2020 (58,950), 2019 (50,477) and 2018 (58,083), which is six of the last ten years. It remains below 2025, 2022 (68,988), 2017 (71,499) and 2016 (67,743).

The ten-year mean of those annual totals is about 63,400 fires, a figure calculated from the table, so the year-to-date count already exceeds an average whole year with two months of the calendar left.

Acreage tells a different story from the count. The 9,061,386 acres this year are more than the 8,924,884 recorded for all of 2024 and far above 2025’s 5,131,474, but below 2020 (10,122,336) and 2017 (10,026,086). The count is high because of many fires; the acreage is high in a more ordinary way, at 141% of average rather than a record. The annual table and the year-to-date report come from the same incident reporting system, though a late-October snapshot and a final annual tabulation are not strictly like-for-like.

The average-to-date figure carries its own lesson. The 50,571 fires NICC expects by Oct. 28 is about 80% of the 63,400-fire annual mean worked out above, so a typical year has logged most of its fires by now. If 2026 adds the usual remainder of roughly 12,800, the arithmetic lands near 79,500 fires, which would top 2025’s 77,850. That projection is the writer’s arithmetic, not an NICC forecast. On acres, 9,061,386 against the 6,421,573 average leaves a surplus of 2,639,813.

Preparedness Level 1 and the outlook for November

Activity on the ground is light. The Oct. 28 report puts the National Preparedness Level at 1, with three new large incidents and 10 uncontained large fires, against one new large incident and nine uncontained fires on Oct. 21. NICC’s outlook issued Oct. 1 recorded that the national level fell from 5 to 2 during September, with drought covering more than 59% of the country as of Sept. 29 and about 12% in extreme to exceptional drought.

That outlook rates November as normal for most of the country, with above-normal significant fire potential from eastern Texas and Oklahoma into Kentucky and Tennessee, plus Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Alaska’s season is expected to end with snow by early November, Northern California’s fire season is expected to effectively end in November or December, and the Northern Rockies are forecast to see minimal activity.

Regional notes in the same outlook run through the western and central fire areas. Southern California is rated near normal from November through January, with widespread significant rain expected by then. The Great Basin is normal after October, the Southwest and the Rocky Mountain area are normal through January, and the Rocky Mountain area could see brief, short-lived periods of elevated potential after warm, dry spells. None of the regions carries an above-normal rating for the winter months outside the southern-plains-to-Kentucky belt and the Caribbean territories.

The center’s Predictive Services page says the outlook is updated on the first work day of each month, which puts the next issuance at Nov. 2. Until then, the Oct. 28 situation report is the authoritative tally, and its 66,721-fire count is the number every later adjustment will move.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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