Thunderstorms could drop 2 to 4 inches of rain from south-central Kansas to Texas’ Big Bend over the 48 hours that began Wednesday morning, Oct. 14, according to the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. Its short-range discussion, issued at 3:59 a.m. EDT, warned that “numerous instances of flash flooding could result as these thunderstorms train over the same areas.”
The same system is bringing up to a foot of snow to the highest peaks of northern Colorado, record warmth to the Southeast and a sharp cooldown behind a cold front later in the week. The details below are as of the Oct. 14 forecast products, and conditions can change quickly.
Training thunderstorms along a Southern Plains front
Forecaster Asherman wrote the short-range discussion, which is valid from 12Z Wednesday, Oct. 14, to 12Z Friday, Oct. 16. It describes a consolidating low that brings wet, unsettled weather to the Plains and the Lower Ohio Valley, with severe thunderstorms possible along the Southern Plains front on Wednesday and Thursday. Over the 48 hours, 2 to 4 inches of rain are possible across a wide swath from south-central Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. The flash-flood risk comes from repetition: storms that move over the same ground in sequence, the process forecasters call training, can drop more water on a single area than the totals for the swath suggest.
Specific places are named in the center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. The Day 1 outlook, updated at 0719 UTC on Oct. 14 and written by forecaster Kleebauer, placed a Moderate Risk, the highest category in that outlook, over southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin, extending through central Oklahoma into the Tulsa metro area, with the Oklahoma City metro in the highest-probability zone. A surrounding Slight Risk stretches from southwestern Texas through the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with an eastern extension over the Central Appalachian front in West Virginia. That outlook is valid until 12 UTC on Oct. 15.
The prior day’s forecast set up the same pattern. The Day 2 outlook, issued on Oct. 13, cited scattered storms with heavy rain increasingly likely Wednesday evening, rates above 2 inches an hour at times, and totals of 2 to 3 inches from the Southern Plains back into west Texas. It put the core of probabilities for totals above 3 inches across western Oklahoma down to the Red River along the Texas-Oklahoma border.
The geography is wide. The swath named in the discussion runs from south-central Kansas across Oklahoma to the Big Bend, while the Slight Risk in the Day 1 outlook reaches from southwestern Texas to West Virginia. Different parts of that footprint peak at different times, which is why the discussion and the outlooks carry different valid windows, and why the totals quoted for the swath are a 48-hour figure and not a per-storm amount.
Snow in the Rockies, then a hard drop in temperature
Snow continues over the Central Rockies, and the Weather Prediction Center’s discussion says up to a foot is possible in the peaks of northern Colorado. A strong high-pressure system moving south from northern Canada later in the week brings what the discussion calls a sharp pattern change to much of the central part of the country.
The contrast with the current temperatures is large. Record warmth continues through Thursday in parts of the Southern Plains, the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Behind the cold front, temperatures could fall as much as 20 to 25 degrees, and many areas may approach their first freeze of the season, with overnight lows nearing freezing late Friday.
Flooded roads and the Turn Around Don’t Drown guidance
Heavy rain on a stalled front is a familiar setup for flash flooding, and the National Weather Service uses its flood safety page to stress that it is vital to know what to do when driving and encountering a flooded road. The agency’s Turn Around Don’t Drown guidance supplies the numbers: about 12 inches of rushing water can carry away most cars, about 2 feet can carry away SUVs and trucks, and even 6 inches of fast-moving water can knock an adult down. The page also cites the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which reports that over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into hazardous flood water.
The advice is blunt. It is never safe to drive or walk into flood waters, drivers should not go around barriers on a flooded road because the road may have collapsed under the water, and the right response to a flooded crossing is to turn around.
For the places named in the outlooks, the timing matters as much as the totals. The Day 1 outlook closes at 12 UTC on Oct. 15 and the discussion window runs to 12Z Friday, Oct. 16, so the heaviest rain risk on the Southern Plains falls early in the period, with the pattern change arriving as the rain ends. An outlook describes a region and not a street, so residents of Oklahoma, west Texas and the Big Bend should check the National Weather Service forecast for their own county.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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