The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that solar will supply 10% of the nation’s electricity generation in 2027, up from 7% in 2025, which works out to about one kilowatt-hour in every ten. The figure comes from the November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Nov. 10 with a forecast cutoff of Nov. 5.
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Utility-scale plants account for most of the growth. In the same outlook, total generation reaches almost 4,390 billion kilowatthours in 2026, a record and 2.7% above 2025, before growth slows to 1.2% in 2027 as forecast milder weather trims residential demand.
Solar’s share from 5% to 10% in three years
EIA’s electricity section lists solar at 5% of U.S. generation in 2024, 7% in 2025, 8% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. The agency says most of the generation growth across the forecast period comes from utility-scale solar plants. That is a doubling of share in three years, and it happens while the total pool of electricity is itself growing, so the added solar output is larger than the share change alone suggests.
The agency’s renewables passage counts expected additions of 72 gigawatts of solar and 20 gigawatts of wind. Wind’s share edges up from 11% in 2025 to 12% by 2027, which leaves solar doing the bulk of the share gain among renewables. The same passage describes the 2027 solar level as nearly 10%, so rounding decides whether the share lands on the mark or just beneath it; the agency’s own table prints a round 10.
Rough arithmetic shows the scale. Applying the rounded shares to EIA’s totals, 7% of about 4,275 billion kilowatthours in 2025 is near 300 billion, while 10% of about 4,440 billion in 2027 is near 440 billion. Those back-calculated numbers carry rounding error of a few billion kilowatthours in either direction and are not figures EIA states, but they point to solar output growing by roughly half in two years. Separately, the capacity numbers imply a lopsided build. Expected solar additions of 72 gigawatts are 3.6 times the 20 gigawatts of wind, and together they total 92 gigawatts of new generating capability. Applying wind’s rounded 12% share to about 4,440 billion kilowatthours in 2027 gives roughly 530 billion, still well above solar’s 2027 output even after solar’s rapid rise, which is why wind and solar remain separate stories in the share table.
Gas and coal shares barely move
Natural gas supplies 42% of generation in 2024, 40% in both 2025 and 2026, and 39% in 2027, according to the table. Coal runs 16%, 17%, 15% and 15% across the same four years. Measured from 2024 to 2027, solar gains five points, wind one, gas loses three and coal one, with nuclear, hydropower and other sources absorbing the remaining two points.
Cheap fuel is part of the backdrop for gas. In the same release, EIA’s natural gas section forecasts a Henry Hub average of $3.37 in 2026 and $2.88 in 2027, down from $3.53 in 2025. Solar is gaining share against a competitor whose own price is falling, so the 10% target is being reached in a market where gas stays inexpensive. The same section puts the November-to-March Henry Hub average at $2.87, which EIA describes as 36% below last winter.
Demand growth shapes how that plays out. Generation rises 2.7% in 2026 and only 1.2% in 2027, so the added solar output can fit inside a market that is still expanding rather than forcing other plants to shut down in absolute terms. In 2027, with growth slowing, each new gigawatt of solar has a larger effect on its competitors’ share.
Weather also enters the 2027 picture. EIA’s text ties the slowdown to forecast milder weather reducing residential demand, which means a hotter summer or colder winter than assumed would raise total generation and shave solar’s percentage even if its output were unchanged. Shares move with the denominator as well as the numerator, a detail that matters when a round figure such as ten percent becomes a talking point.
Reading a one-in-ten forecast with care
The 10% figure is a projection rather than a measurement. EIA completed the forecast on Nov. 5, and the outlook names no individual analyst behind it, so the agency as a body carries the claim. The next edition is scheduled for Dec. 8, and each monthly revision can move the 2027 share by a fraction of a point in either direction.
One definitional detail deserves attention. The narrative sentence about the rise from 7% in 2025 to 8% in 2026 refers specifically to utility-scale solar plants, while the table row is labeled simply solar. The text read for this article does not say whether the table’s 10% includes small-scale rooftop generation, and readers comparing it with other sources should check that scope in the full outlook and its supporting tables.
The open question for 2027 is whether the 72 gigawatts of expected solar additions arrive on schedule, since the 10% share depends on them, and natural gas pricing from the natural gas outlook will shape how hard gas generators compete for the remaining growth.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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