Snow cannot be ruled out on the High Plains early next week, after a soggy Halloween weekend

Forecasters at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center see a window for the first real snow of the season over the northern and central High Plains on Monday and Tuesday, November 2 and 3, once a strengthening surface low pulls east. Their extended outlook is cautious, saying only that some snow or a rain and snow mix cannot be ruled out there, and it follows a Halloween weekend that brought rain and thunderstorms to a wide swath of the country.

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No winter weather alert covers the area in the guidance reviewed. Everything below is a medium-range forecast with real room for error.

The WPC extended discussion and its High Plains snow call

The WPC extended forecast discussion, signed by forecaster Tate and issued at 3:59 a.m. Eastern time on October 27, covers the period from 12Z on Friday, October 30 to 12Z on Tuesday, November 3. In the text, Tate describes rain spreading across the central United States on Sunday and possibly increasing on Monday as a surface low strengthens. Behind that low, the discussion says, some northern and central High Plains snow or rain and snow mix cannot be ruled out, and gusty winds may be possible across the Plains. The wording leaves out any snowfall totals and any timing finer than the Monday-to-Tuesday window.

The High Plains is the broad, elevated strip of the Great Plains that runs from Wyoming and Montana through the Dakotas, Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas. Cold air can arrive there abruptly because little terrain blocks it, and an early-November storm can drop wet snow on ground that is still above freezing, which tends to melt quickly but can still slick roads, bring down limbs and make gusty winds more disruptive.

Forecasters hedge in this language for a reason. A snow call four to seven days out depends on the exact track and strength of the low, and a shift of a few hundred miles moves the rain and snow line from eastern Montana to western Nebraska or removes it altogether. The phrasing in the discussion signals a possibility that deserves watching, a notch below a forecast of accumulating snow, and it tells ranchers, drivers and airport managers to check the shorter-range products from local National Weather Service offices as the event gets closer.

The soggy weekend that came first

The same discussion sketched the wet pattern that carried through Halloween. Rain and thunderstorms were expected to continue into Friday across the Southern Plains and Southeast as a shortwave interacted with lingering tropical moisture, then to shift east over the Southeast during the weekend with locally heavy rain possible. Florida was set for scattered afternoon storms, and the north-central states for rounds of rain with generally modest totals.

Out West, one round of precipitation was due Friday ahead of an upper trough, and the WPC said heavy rain was possible in the Southwest, where ample moisture was available. Pacific moisture then broadened precipitation across California and the Intermountain West over the weekend, with snow levels and amounts still uncertain. The center tied an atmospheric river to a non-tropical low heading toward southern California and northern Mexico. A Halloween outlook from theweather.com reached a similar picture, with rain and high-elevation snow in the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and Rockies and thunderstorms moving into Texas.

Warmth in the East and the longer-range signal

The temperature contrast helps explain why snow is even a question. The discussion put central and eastern highs well above average, with 70s reaching into the Ohio Valley at times and anomalies of roughly 10 to 20 degrees above normal, while the West ran somewhat below average. The Plains were expected to moderate toward normal early in the week, which is the setup that lets cold air slide in behind a departing low.

Seasonal context points the same way. A Mental Floss analysis of Climate Prediction Center outlooks released October 9 noted that NOAA gave a 90 percent chance of a strong El Niño developing this winter, with early-October sea surface temperatures 2.2 degrees Celsius above normal, and El Niño winters often steer wetter weather toward the southern tier. The center’s 8 to 14 day outlook, valid November 8 to 14 and updated October 31, is the next place to look. For the day-to-day picture, the center’s medium-range forecast page carries the maps behind the discussion.

The extended discussion is reissued twice a day, so the text above has almost certainly been replaced by newer wording. The caveat that matters most is age. The discussion read for this article was issued four days before the forecast period began, and later versions will have refined or reversed the High Plains call. Whether the snow falls in Montana, in the Dakotas or nowhere at all depends on where the low tracks on Sunday and Monday, and that remains the unresolved piece. Travelers crossing Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas on Monday should treat the snow possibility as live until the shorter-range forecasts rule it in or out, because early-season storms can turn roads slick before plows and drivers have adjusted.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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