Simon is set to reach Mexico’s west-central coast as a major hurricane late Saturday or Sunday

Hurricane Simon was a 110-mph storm 190 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 6:00 p.m. CST on Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, and the National Hurricane Center expected it to become a major hurricane that evening and strengthen further on Saturday. The forecast brings the center very near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday, with a hurricane warning already posted from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.

Simon is a small storm, and that is the source of the uncertainty. Forecasters gave its current strength as “very uncertain,” with estimates that differed by 32 knots.

Advisory 10A and the Warning Area

The center’s Intermediate Advisory 10A, issued at 6:00 PM CST, put Simon at 16.4 degrees north, 104.6 degrees west, moving north-northwest at 3 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 964 millibars. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 80 miles.

The hurricane warning covered Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita. A hurricane watch stood from Punta Mita to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marias, and a tropical storm watch covered the coast east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. The advisory said tropical storm conditions could reach the warning area as early as Saturday morning and hurricane conditions were expected Saturday evening or Sunday.

The timing differs from the center’s earlier wording. Its Discussion Number 9, issued at 9:00 AM CST, held Simon at 85 knots, or 100 mph, and said it was expected to approach the west-central coast as a major hurricane on Saturday. By the evening advisory, the passage had moved later, to late Saturday or Sunday.

Rapid Intensification and the 125-Knot Peak

Forecaster D. Zelinsky wrote in the 3:00 PM CST Discussion Number 10 that Simon was at 90 knots, or 105 mph, and that “further rapid intensification is still anticipated,” though its timing was highly uncertain. The small size made the analysis shaky: satellite estimates ranged from 65 knots from the DMINT technique to 97 knots from a synthetic aperture radar pass by the RCM-1 satellite, the discussion said, a spread wide enough that the strength of the eyewall at any given hour carries real error.

The Advisory 10 forecast table carries the peak. Winds rise to 110 knots by 0600 UTC Saturday, Oct. 10, and to 125 knots, or 145 mph, by 1800 UTC, which is noon CST. The table still has Simon at 115 knots, or about 132 mph, at 0600 UTC Sunday, Oct. 11, and at 95 knots with the center inland at 1800 UTC Sunday. A 115-knot hurricane is a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, so the major-hurricane label holds at the time the forecast puts the center nearest the coast.

The coast itself is where the forecast is least certain. The discussion said the question was “whether or not it moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco.” A track slightly to the east would weaken Simon quickly, while a track just west would let it travel farther north as a hurricane. The center described the difference between those paths as smaller than typical forecast error.

Rain, Surge and the Four-State Flood Threat

Advisory 10A forecast 10 to 20 inches of rain over portions of southwestern Mexico through Sunday, with isolated maximums of 30 inches in Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit. It warned of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. The earlier advisory had given 8 to 15 inches with isolated totals up to 25 inches, so the rain forecast rose as the storm strengthened.

Dangerous storm surge was likely along the immediate coast near and east of the landfall point, accompanied by large, destructive waves, and swells were expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents along southwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. The discussion tied the surge threat to the same stretch of coast under the hurricane warning, from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, though it gave no surge heights, and the advisory pointed readers to local weather offices for surf conditions.

Mexican authorities had flagged the rain days earlier. Protección Civil Jalisco’s notice of Oct. 7 covered the Costa Sur, Costa Norte, Sierra de Amula and the south of the state, with 60 to 100 millimeters of rain forecast between Thursday and Sunday, swells of 3 to 5 meters and winds of 40 to 70 km/h. At that point Simon was a tropical storm, and UnoTV, citing Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and the hurricane center, reported it had formed from Tropical Depression Twenty-E.

Simon has gone from a tropical storm on Oct. 7 to a 110-mph hurricane on Oct. 9, and the center’s forecast calls for it to dissipate by Wednesday, Oct. 14. Whether that path takes it over Colima and Jalisco on Sunday is the one item the center says it cannot yet separate from forecast error.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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