The polar vortex that has locked much of the country into a deep freeze is finally loosening its grip, and the atmosphere is already lining up a very different pattern. Forecasts point to a sharp but uneven warmup, with some regions jumping straight into early springlike conditions while others slog through a slower thaw. If you are sick of the polar vortex, the key is where you live and how patient you are willing to be over the next few weeks.
Short term, forecasters see temperatures rebounding quickly across large parts of the United States, with some areas flirting with record warmth. Looking deeper into Spring 2026, seasonal outlooks converge on a theme of warmer-than-normal conditions for much of the country, even as pockets of lingering cold, late snow and heightened severe weather risk complicate the story.
From brutal polar vortex to February thaw
The same pattern that delivered what has been described as the relentless winter of 2025–26 in the East is now starting to flip. Earlier this week, forecasters warned that the coldest air of the whole season was about to surge into the East, with Doyle Rice detailing how the polar vortex would unleash its most brutal outbreak yet. That same circulation, however, is now expected to strengthen and retreat, a shift that tends to lock the cold closer to the Arctic and open the door for milder Pacific and Gulf air to spill across the United States east of the Rockies.
Meteorologists note that a strong polar vortex can actually be good news for warm weather lovers in the U.S., because a consolidated vortex keeps the worst Arctic air bottled up. Analyses explaining why a strong vortex is good news for warmth east of the Rockies emphasize that, as it recovers, the jet stream often flattens and allows milder air to dominate the central and eastern States east. That is the backdrop for the coming warmup that will start to erase the sting of the recent subzero wind chills.
Where and when the first real warmth shows up
The first genuine taste of springlike air will surge into the Plains and parts of the northern Rockies. Forecast guidance cited by Temperatures shows highs pushing into the 60s well north into Montana and South Dakota Monday Feb and Tuesday Feb, a remarkable turnaround from the deep freeze of early month. That surge of warmth will then slide east, lifting readings across the Midwest and eastern United States out of the polar vortex’s shadow and into far more tolerable territory.
Farther south, the rebound will be even more dramatic. A separate forecast of record-breaking cold across the southern US stressed that the good news is that this cold snap will not stick around long, with Temperatures across the central and southern US expected to rebound quickly as Arctic air retreats. In practical terms, that means many cities from Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley will swing from record lows to afternoons that feel more like late March than midwinter, with outdoor plans suddenly back on the table.
Spring 2026 outlook: warmer overall, but not for everyone
Looking beyond the immediate thaw, seasonal outlooks for Spring 2026 point to a broad warm lean across much of the country. Long range guidance from Spring suggests that Temperatures will run warmer than normal across large swaths of the United States, with only a few pockets bucking the trend. A companion outlook focused on Spring 2026 Temperatures reinforces that much of the United States should expect a milder season, even as some regions deal with wetter conditions and periodic cool shots.
Other forecasters echo that theme but stress that the transition will not be uniform. A detailed Spring Forecast notes that Winter Lingers in the North while Early Heat Grips the South, with Cold Air expected to dominate early in the season across parts of the North. A related Spring Forecast describes a Slow Transition to Spring Warmth and warns of an Elevated Risk of Floods and Fires, a reminder that a warmer pattern can still carry serious hazards even as it feels like a relief from the polar vortex.
New England’s path from snow to shirtsleeves
For New Englanders who have endured repeated snow and bitter wind, the question is not just if it will warm up, but when. Regional guidance framed around the question of when it will warm up notes that Spring 2026 is expected to be warmer than usual, with the Spring outlook saying the Old Farmer Almanac expects conditions that are warmer than usual. That same forecast tells residents who are Sick of snow that Cape Cod and the rest of the New England coast can look forward to a milder pattern as the season unfolds, even if late-season nor’easters remain possible.
Farther inland, another regional breakdown highlights how the Old Farmer Almanac is calling for a Warmer, drier spring for New England in 2026, with the Old Farmer Almanac explicitly flagging Warmer conditions across New England. A broader national summary of The Old Farmer Almanac Spring Weather Forecast adds that The Old Farmer expects warmer temperatures ahead for many regions, including parts of the Northeast, even as some areas of the Midwest and Intermountain West see different precipitation patterns according to The Old Farmer.
Why some regions will still feel stuck in winter
Even as the national narrative shifts toward warmth, parts of the country will continue to feel like winter has not finished with them. A detailed regional Spring forecast for parts of the interior Northeast describes days that are Partly cloudy and windy with a High near 10F, driven by Winds NW at 25 to 35 m and gusts that could occasionally reach over 40 m. That kind of setup underscores how lingering Arctic air can still dive south in March, especially across higher elevations and downwind of the Great Lakes, even as nearby regions bask in sunshine.
Video briefings on the upcoming season reinforce the idea that the transition to milder conditions will be halting. In one widely shared clip, a forecaster notes in Jan that acue weather’s spring forecast is out and that the big question of when the transition to spring will happen has a frustrating answer, because it is going to be a little slower according to Jan. A related explainer on Severe weather season warns that one of the most intense tornado setups could arrive around March 4, a reminder that the clash between lingering cold and surging warmth can fuel dangerous storms even as people are eager to enjoy the milder air.
More from Morning Overview
*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
