Omaha is on track for its warmest fall ever, running about a degree ahead of 1938’s record

Omaha has seen four 90-degree days in October, one more than any October before it, and the heat has carried the metro’s September-through-early-November average to 66.9 degrees. That puts meteorological fall 2026 nearly a degree ahead of 1938, the previous warmest year, as of Nov. 5.

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WOWT meteorologist Bo Fogal wrote on Nov. 5 that the latest data is trending toward the warmest meteorological fall ever recorded in Omaha. Meteorological fall runs from Sept. 1 through Nov. 30, so the ranking is a projection until the last day of the month. In his words, the latest data is trending that the 2026 meteorological fall season will be the warmest ever recorded. Fogal’s phrasing was deliberate: the season is on track, not finished, and the November weather still to come decides the final order.

A 66.9-degree average against the 1938 benchmark

In the Nov. 5 WOWT analysis, the Sept. 1 to Nov. 5 average of 66.9 degrees ran about a degree warmer than the runner-up year, 1938. A follow-up from the station on Nov. 6 had the season-to-date average at 66.6 degrees, still described by meteorologist Beau Fogel, the name used inside the Nov. 7 report, as the warmest ever recorded for the fall season. The three-tenths drop reflects the cooler days that arrived after the early-November warmth.

The second report does not repeat the 1938 comparison or state a margin, saying only that other years rank right behind the current season. Treat the one-degree gap as the Nov. 5 value, which can shrink or widen with each cold or mild day.

Nine 90s in September, four in October

September supplied nine days with highs in the 90s, mostly early in the month, plus six days in the 80s and nine in the 70s. The average high slid from 83 degrees on Sept. 1 to 74 on Sept. 30. October then set a monthly record of four days in the 90s, topping the old mark of three, and the average high fell from 73 on Oct. 1 to 58 on Halloween.

Oct. 9 reached 91 degrees, breaking the previous daily record of 88 set in 2020, and Oct. 10 and 11 tied record highs. A separate WOWT report on Nov. 2 by Carmelo Lattuca ranked October as the fourth warmest on record for the Omaha metro at 62.3 degrees, the fourth year in a row that October ran warmer than the one before.

Context from the Nov. 2 report adds weight. Lattuca wrote that four consecutive 90-degree days in October had never happened in Omaha’s recorded history, that one of those days tied for the seventh-latest 90-degree day on record, and that the three most recent Octobers all rank among the top 15 warmest. The same report projected November to be warmer than average. WOWT did not cite a data source for those figures either.

What November still has to deliver

The first few days of November ran 5 to 15 degrees above average, but the Nov. 5 outlook called for cooler-than-average days and a return of above-average readings by the weekend. Average highs in Omaha slide from 57 degrees at the start of the month to 43 at the end, so every mild afternoon in the second half of November works in the season’s favor and every cold snap works against it. WOWT’s Nov. 6 report said warmer-than-average temperatures would continue, while sidebar items on the same page pointed to hard freezes on Friday and Saturday mornings.

Because the margin over 1938 is under a degree and 25 days of the month remained when the margin was measured, the record is plausible but not secured. The season runs 91 days, so Nov. 5 marked 66 days elapsed. Both 2026 and 1938 carry a full November of cooling, and the standings turn on how the final weeks compare with 1938’s, a figure the WOWT reports do not supply.

Meteorological seasons are built from whole calendar months, which keeps comparisons clean: each year’s Sept. 1 to Nov. 5 average covers the same 66 days. A gap of nearly a degree over that span is a difference of roughly 60 cumulative degrees across the 66 daily readings, a lead that one sharp cold outbreak in late November could erode, though a mild stretch could just as easily widen it.

Sourcing and a caution on the numbers

The figures here come from WOWT’s weather team, not from a published National Weather Service climate report. The station does not name its dataset in the pieces read for this article, and the NWS Omaha/Valley climate page and its monthly climate statistics tool returned no 2026 fall figures when checked, so the 66.9-degree average and the 1938 comparison could not be matched to an official table. An official seasonal ranking will come only after Nov. 30, when the Weather Service closes the month and the full 91-day average can be compared with 1938 and the other leading years on equal terms.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.