NOAA’s winter outlook for December through February favors wetter-than-average conditions from California to Florida and along the entire East Coast, with a very strong El Niño expected to steer the jet stream south and east. The forecast, released October 15, 2026, also tilts warmer across much of the northern half of the country and favors colder-than-average weather nowhere in the nation.
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Seasonal outlooks deal in odds rather than certainties, and this one is explicit about its limits. It says nothing about how much snow any city will see.
NOAA’s wetter lean from the Southwest to the East Coast
In the release titled “El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook”, NOAA places the highest odds of above-average precipitation across the southern tier, running from the Southwest through the Southeast, and along the Eastern Seaboard. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said that “a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream,” the mechanism behind the stormier South.
The drier side of the map is smaller. Hawaii, central Alaska, the northern Rockies, some areas around the Great Lakes and the western Pacific islands are favored to see less precipitation than usual. Equal chances of wet, dry or near-normal conditions cover the Intermountain West, the northern Plains, the Ohio Valley and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, meaning the climate signals there are too weak to tip the odds either way.
Warmer odds across the northern tier and much of the East
On temperature, warmer-than-average conditions are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska, along with Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are leaning toward near-normal temperatures. Hawaii and much of the Southwest carry equal chances of below, near or above average, and no region is favored for a colder-than-average winter.
A warm and wet East Coast does not rule out snow, and the outlook never claims it does. The release states plainly that it “does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations,” because snow forecasts are generally not reliable more than about a week ahead. Anyone planning around a specific storm has to wait for short-range forecasts, including the new probabilistic snow resources the Weather Service points to at weather.gov/prob-snow.
El Niño and the drought outlook
The driver behind the pattern is a strengthening El Niño. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its October 8 diagnostic discussion, kept an El Niño Advisory in place and put the chance of a historic event at 83 percent for October through December, with the Niño-3.4 index at +2.1 degrees Celsius. The center’s wording is that chances remain high for an event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño episodes dating back to 1950. The same discussion says the event will continue to strengthen through the end of the year and describes a strong-to-very strong El Niño as likely through January to March 2027, which is longer than the three-month window the winter outlook covers.
The companion drought outlook, which runs from October 15 through the end of January 2027, expects drought to improve or end across the Southwest, the southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Development or worsening is favored for parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. Graham cautioned that “too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” a warning aimed at drought-stricken areas that may get their relief all at once.
The practical read is a split-screen winter. In the Southwest, the southern Great Plains and the Southeast, wetter odds line up with drought that the outlook expects to ease, which would be welcome news for dry soils and reservoirs. Along the East Coast, the combination of warmer-than-average odds and wetter-than-average odds points toward rain events more than a classic cold, snowy winter, though the outlook stops short of saying so outright. The Midwest and Mississippi Valley, by contrast, are tilted toward a warmer winter, as is the northern United States more broadly, and the release does not favor a colder-than-average outcome for any region of the country.
New tools and what comes next
NOAA is rolling out two changes this season. The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal run by the Weather Prediction Center is now operational at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip, and select Blizzard and Ice Storm Warnings will carry “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording when forecasters have high confidence in a historic event. Readers can find winter preparedness guidance at weather.gov/safety.
The full map set is available on the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook page, and the next monthly three-month outlook is due November 19. Updates arrive monthly, so the December through February picture can be refined as the El Niño develops.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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