A winter that feels more like spring in parts of the West is colliding with brutal cold and volatile storms elsewhere, leaving even seasoned forecasters warning that the United States is entering unfamiliar territory. One meteorologist captured the unease bluntly, saying we will not truly grasp how severe this pattern is “until we are there,” a reminder that the country is living through a climate that is shifting faster than the systems built to predict it. I see that tension playing out in real time, from record warmth and meager snowpack to Arctic outbreaks and ocean‑driven “peak intensity” storms.
The warm West that has forecasters on edge
The most jarring signal of this strange season is the warmth gripping the western United States, where a traditionally snow‑reliant winter has been replaced by temperatures running almost 6 degrees above average. Meteorologist Timothy McGill has highlighted how a warm winter so far in the western U.S. is not just a curiosity but a red flag for water supplies, wildfire risk and the broader climate signal. His warning that “we will not know how bad it is until we are there” reflects a growing recognition that the feedback loops from this kind of persistent anomaly are hard to model in advance, especially when they compound year after year.
Evidence from recent months backs up that concern. Because of record‑warm temperatures, the Because of West experienced one of the worst starts to a winter for Sierra and Rockies snowpack in recorded history, with every area highlighted in red logging its hottest December since at least 1979. The most extreme anomalies were centered in Wyoming, where temperatures were up to 17°F above normal for the entire month of December, a staggering departure that undercuts the mountain snow reservoirs millions depend on. When a region that relies on cold and snow instead bakes through what should be its coldest stretch, the alarm from forecasters is less about a single odd season and more about a system that is drifting away from the climate it was built around.
Cross‑country storms and a split‑screen winter
While the West runs hot, the rest of the country is being carved up by a series of powerful storm systems that showcase how unstable the atmosphere has become. In early January, a cross‑country storm was already “coming together,” as Bera Merwin, a Jan Fox Weather meteorologist, put it in a national briefing that walked through the evolving setup over America. That system was not an isolated event but part of a broader pattern in which energy sweeping out of the Pacific taps into sharp temperature contrasts across the continent, turning routine fronts into sprawling, multi‑hazard events.
Forecast discussions around the first multi‑day severe weather episode of 2026 underscored how quickly conditions can escalate. Showers and Showers and thunderstorms were expected to intensify and become more widespread from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with damaging winds and large hail threatening communities from the South to the Midwest. That same system was also projected to deliver snow and high winds farther north, a reminder that one storm can now produce springlike severe weather and midwinter blizzards at the same time. For residents, it feels like whiplash. For meteorologists, it is a sign that the background climate is loading the dice for more extreme swings.
Arctic blasts, falling iguanas and a stressed polar vortex
At the other end of the spectrum, parts of the country are bracing for or already enduring intense cold that would stand out in any era. An Arctic Blast Alert circulating among weather watchers warned that Experts say sub‑freezing temperatures are expanding all the way to Florida, driven by a massive polar vortex poised to spill south. When air that frigid reaches the Gulf Coast, it is not just a headline, it is a direct threat to infrastructure, agriculture and people who are not accustomed to sustained freezes. The same pattern that leaves the West oddly mild can, through a disrupted jet stream, unleash punishing cold on regions that are usually buffered from the worst of winter.
That clash is perhaps most vividly illustrated in Florida itself, where local forecasters have been flagging a very specific hazard: frozen reptiles. One meteorologist issued a Florida: Falling Alert, warning residents to Get ready for a “Falling Iguana” Friday as temperatures drop low enough that the cold‑blooded animals seize up and tumble from trees. It is a quirky, almost surreal image, but it is also a practical safety message in a state where a hard freeze can damage crops, burst pipes and stress a power grid built for air‑conditioning demand. When I see a forecast that has to account for both heat‑driven severe storms and reptiles falling from branches, it is hard to argue that the atmosphere is behaving as it used to.
Polar vortex extremes and the coldest air on Earth
The polar vortex itself is emerging as a central character in this winter’s story, and not in a reassuring way. In a regional forecast for Columbus, Ga, meteorologist Kaylee Barbee explained how a Polar vortex is expected to fuel a dangerous spread of Arctic air, with the coldest temperatures lingering over the U.S. for weeks and affecting over 170 m Americans across the World of North America’s mid‑latitudes. That kind of prolonged outbreak tests everything from heating systems to municipal budgets, especially in cities that have not had to plan for sustained sub‑freezing conditions in decades. It also raises questions about how a warming planet can still produce such brutal cold, a paradox that scientists increasingly link to a destabilized jet stream.
Farther north and east, forecasters are warning that the Northeast and much of the eastern United States could briefly host some of the harshest conditions anywhere. A detailed outlook noted that Temperatures from the Midwest to the East Coast are expected to plunge 15 to 20 degrees below average, with New York City potentially stuck in the teens and low 20s. Climatologist Judah Cohen has warned that the region could briefly see “the most extreme cold on Earth” during that pattern, a phrase that would have sounded hyperbolic a generation ago but now fits within the range of plausible outcomes. When the same season delivers record warmth in Wyoming and world‑class cold in New York City, the phrase “we will not know how bad it is until we are there” starts to feel less like a warning and more like a description of daily life.
Hot oceans, warning shots and what comes next
Behind these wild swings lies a quieter but more consequential driver: the steady accumulation of heat in the climate system. Multiple international teams have concluded that 2025 was the third‑hottest year on record, with Another near‑record hot year serving as what Scientists describe as a warning shot. Five separate science groups reached similar conclusions, underscoring that this is not a statistical fluke but part of a clear upward trend. In a companion assessment, Scientists working with By The Associated Press and other monitoring programs described the latest readings as a signal from a shifting climate, not an isolated spike, and warned that what once counted as extreme is on track to become routine.
Experts are also watching the oceans with growing unease. A recent analysis highlighted how Scientists are sounding the alarm over deep‑ocean hot spots that are helping to fuel stronger storms, creating what some researchers describe as “Peak” intensity monsters when conditions line up. At the same time, climate specialists note that Some forecasts have an Some El Nino developing this year, although Carlo Buontempo, director of Coper nicus climate services, has cautioned that the outlook is still murky. What is less uncertain is the cause. Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at Samantha Burgess Copernicus, has pointed squarely at the burning of coal, oil and gas as the overwhelming culprit and warned that without rapid cuts, years like this will become the norm, not the exception.
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