Manzanillo has a 92% chance of tropical-storm-force winds as Hurricane Trudy passes

The port city of Manzanillo, on Mexico’s Pacific coast, now has a 92% chance of tropical-storm-force winds as Hurricane Trudy moves toward the coast, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest wind-speed probabilities. The figure is cumulative over the next five days and has climbed through the day from 83% in the morning.

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Trudy is expected to approach the coast on Saturday and pass near it Saturday night into Sunday. The hurricane has also changed character since Friday morning, when it was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. By Friday evening it had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, yet the odds of damaging wind at Manzanillo went up rather than down.

Wind odds for Manzanillo and nearby ports

The center’s wind-speed probability product for advisory 15, issued at 0300 UTC on Oct. 17 (9 p.m. CST on Friday, Oct. 16), puts the cumulative chance of 34-knot winds, the threshold for tropical-storm force, at 92% for Manzanillo. The same table gives 47% for 50-knot winds and 16% for 64-knot, hurricane-force winds. Most of the risk is packed into a roughly 24-hour stretch, with 62% arriving between midday Saturday and midnight Sunday and another 29% in the first half of Sunday.

The morning version of the product is useful for comparison. In advisory 12, issued at 0900 UTC on Friday, Manzanillo’s chance of tropical-storm-force winds was 83%, with a 22% chance of hurricane-force winds. The tropical-storm number has risen nine points since then while the hurricane-force number has fallen six, a sign that forecasters now see a somewhat weaker storm that is nonetheless more likely to bring sustained strong winds to the port.

Other stops on the coast carry lower numbers. In advisory 14, issued at 2100 UTC, Barra de Navidad had a 73% cumulative chance of tropical-storm-force winds and Puerto Vallarta 38%, while Zihuatanejo, to the south, was at 3%. The pattern shows how tightly the threat is clustered on the stretch of coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.

Trudy’s weakening and the forecast track

When advisory 12 went out, forecaster Reinhart wrote that Trudy “is predicted to remain offshore at this time and be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico,” and the forecast discussion called for peak winds of 125 knots, or 145 mph, within 36 hours. That forecast did not hold.

By the afternoon, the discussion for advisory 14 reported that the eye had disappeared and that microwave data showed the central convection had decayed. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure near 982 millibars, and the initial intensity was lowered to 75 knots. Forecaster Beven wrote that “the reasons for this weakening are speculative,” offering one possibility: cold water upwelled by the storm’s slow passage over the paths of earlier storms Polo and Rachel. Trudy is now forecast to re-strengthen slightly to 80 knots, or 90 mph, before weakening, and is “no longer forecast to be a major hurricane.”

The track guidance is steadier. The center is expected to come near or possibly over the west-central Mexican coast around 48 hours from Friday afternoon, after which weaker steering should send it generally west-northwestward, and the discussion forecasts a post-tropical remnant low by five days.

Warnings, rain and surf along the coast

The intermediate advisory 14A, issued at 6 p.m. CST, put Trudy about 300 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, moving north-northwest at 6 mph. It lists a hurricane warning from Manzanillo north to Cabo Corrientes, a hurricane watch from Manzanillo south to Punta San Telmo, a tropical storm warning from Manzanillo south to Zihuatanejo, and a tropical storm watch north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night.

Wind is only part of the exposure. Rain of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals near 15 inches, is forecast for Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, where flooding and mudslides are possible on steep terrain. Outer bands may bring 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals near 6 inches, to Guerrero and Nayarit. Swells already affecting the coast are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents as they spread north.

The advisory also notes that coastal flooding is possible where winds blow onshore, with large and destructive waves near the coast. It describes a compact core: hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach out up to 140 miles. That difference is the reason Manzanillo’s odds of tropical-storm winds are so much higher than its odds of hurricane-force winds. A center passing even slightly offshore can put the port inside the wider ring of strong wind without exposing it to the narrow core.

Mexico’s government issued its own hurricane warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, which overlaps the hurricane center’s warning for the same coast. The hurricane center updates its complete advisories every six hours, with intermediate bulletins in between.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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